Crude oil is likely to move in the band of $64 and $67 after a high volatile session - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is expected to find support near $3290 and move higher towards $3360 amid softer dollar and weakness in the treasury yields. Tariff concerns would support prices as 90-day pause on US President Trump’s reciprocal tariff expires on July 9 th . Additionally, prices could find support on continues buying by gold ETF’s as its holdings rose to 1 and half year high. Moreover, forecast of negative growth in US would increase the chances of 2 rate cuts in this year and limit downside in prices. Meanwhile, easing Middle east tension and hawkish tone form the Fed Chair could restrict the upside in yellow metal.
* Spot gold is expected to remain in the range of $3290 and $3360. Only a move below $3290 it would turn weaker towards $3250. MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs.98,200 as long as it holds above Rs.96,400.
* MCX Silver July is expected to move in the band of Rs.103,800 and Rs.106,500. A move above Rs.106,500 would open the doors towards Rs.107,800.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are likely to move higher amid softer dollar and tighter physical market. Easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East has improved risk sentiments and it’s likely to support prices. Moreover, depleting inventory levels in China and LME would provide support to prices. Widening LME copper backwardation clearly indicates tightness on the market. Additionally, increasing bets of 2 rate cuts by the US Fed would help the metal to hold firm. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US last quarter GDP data, which could give further clarity in price trend.
* MCX Copper July is expected to move higher towards Rs.890, as long as it trades above Rs.878 level. Only above Rs.890 it would open the doors towards Rs.900.
* MCX Aluminum July is expected to find support near Rs.245.50 and move higher towards Rs.250 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move higher towards Rs.257 level as long as it holds above Rs.254. Above Rs.257, it would open the doors towards Rs.260.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to move in the band of $64 and $67 after a high volatile session. Price may face stiff resistance and trade lower on easing supply concerns from Middle East. Ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran would improve oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Further, growing hopes of a potential easing in enforcement on Iranian oil exports would ease supply issues. Moreover, weaker set of economic numbers from US would weigh on demand prospects.
* On the data front, fresh addition of OI in OTM call 68 strike indicates prices to face stiff resistance. On the downside 20-day EMA at $64 would act as key support. MCX Crude oil July is likely to move lower towards Rs.5400 as long as it trades under Rs.5750 level.
* MCX Natural gas July is expected to move lower towards Rs.305 as long as it trades under Rs.325 mark. Easing supply concerns and sluggish export demand would check its upside.
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