Cotton Outlook 2024/25: U.S. Exports Fall, Global Stocks Rise by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The April 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet update shows a 100,000-bale cut in exports, now projected at 10.9 million bales, pushing ending stocks up to 5.0 million bales. The average upland farm price remains steady at 63 cents per pound. Globally, cotton production and consumption have dipped, while ending stocks have risen by over 520,000 bales. Declines in production from Argentina and Cote d’Ivoire outweigh gains in China. Textile mill use and imports are both reduced, especially in China and Indonesia, though Turkey sees a modest increase. Export reductions from major suppliers like the U.S., Australia, and Brazil further tighten global trade flows. Overall, the market remains under pressure with bearish indicators across key regions.
Key Highlights
# U.S. cotton exports reduced by 100,000 bales to 10.9 million.
# Ending stocks in the U.S. rise to 5.0 million bales.
# Global production down by 69,000 bales due to Argentina and others.
# World mill use drops 520,000 bales, led by China and Indonesia.
# Ending global stocks increase by over 520,000 bales.
In the latest update for the 2024/25 season, U.S. cotton exports have been trimmed by 100,000 bales to 10.9 million, directly raising ending stocks to 5.0 million bales. Despite this change, the projected season-average upland farm price remains firm at 63 cents per pound, suggesting a steady pricing environment amid shifting global dynamics.
The price stability comes even as market fundamentals hint at softness. The uptick in U.S. stocks reflects a weaker export outlook, underscoring slower global demand. Supporting this narrative, world cotton production is down 69,000 bales, with reductions in Argentina and Cote d’Ivoire outweighing modest gains in China. Additionally, global textile mill use has been revised downward by 520,000 bales, largely due to weaker consumption forecasts for China and Indonesia.
On the trade front, imports have declined following the same trend, with reductions for China and Indonesia offsetting minor increases for Turkey. Export projections have also been trimmed for major players like the U.S., Australia, Brazil, and Cote d’Ivoire, while Turkey and Kazakhstan posted marginal increases.
World beginning stocks received a slight boost of 25,000 bales due to revisions in Egypt’s prior data. As a result, global ending stocks for 2024/25 are now projected to rise over 520,000 bales. China, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, and the U.S. all contributed to this build-up, countering declines in Turkey and Argentina.
Finally
With steady prices but rising stocks and reduced trade, the cotton market remains cautiously bearish, driven by muted global demand and shrinking mill use.
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