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Corn prices are expected to rebound despite a recent dip, driven by tightening global supplies and rising consumption. Although current futures on the CBOT have fallen to a three-week low near $4.70 per bushel due to increased US plantings and trade tensions, analysts predict a recovery. Global corn production for 2024-25 is projected to fall slightly, while consumption continues to climb, pushing inventories to multi-year lows. A projected 18.7 million tonne supply deficit is likely to support prices in coming months. Meanwhile, expectations for strong spring planting in the US and a bumper global crop in 2025-26 may cap gains. However, ethanol demand, weather, and geopolitical risks remain key market influencers.

Key Highlights

* Corn prices may rise due to tight global supply. 

* 2024-25 corn output set to fall 1.2% globally. 

* Global consumption to outpace production, creating a supply deficit. 

* CBOT corn prices forecasted to average $4.60/bushel in 2025. 

* Spring planting, trade policies, and ethanol demand in focus.

Corn prices have recently dipped to a three-week low, trading around $4.70 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), weighed down by increased US plantings and ongoing trade tensions with China. However, analysts expect a rebound in the coming months due to tightening global supply and rising consumption.

According to Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI, global corn inventories are expected to fall by 6% in 2025, primarily due to reduced Chinese imports. The USDA projects global production at 1,215.09 million tonnes for 2024-25, down slightly from the previous year, while consumption is forecasted at 1,241.78 million tonnes — pushing ending stocks to a multi-year low of 287.65 million tonnes.

This shift from a production surplus to an estimated 18.7 million tonne deficit highlights the upward pressure on prices. BMI has revised its 2025 price forecast for second-month CBOT corn to $4.60 per bushel, marking a 2.5% gain since the start of 2025. Meanwhile, ING Think notes that even with a recovery in EU and Ukrainian crops, lower US yields and higher global demand may further tighten stocks.

Despite this, the World Bank expects corn prices to soften in 2025–26, citing lower crude oil prices and weaker ethanol demand. Looking ahead, the 2025-26 season may bring some relief, with the International Grains Council projecting record global grain production.

Finally,

While global supply concerns support higher corn prices, risks from trade, weather, and ethanol policy may influence market direction ahead.

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