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Gold

Gold prices ended 1.07% higher at 150,528, recovering amid improving sentiment after crude oil prices declined on rising expectations of a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Market sentiment was supported after U.S. President Donald Trump signalled that a peace deal could be finalized soon and cancelled planned military action against Iran. Despite the rebound, gains remained limited as investors continued to assess inflation risks and the possibility of further monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in May, recording the strongest annual increase in three-and-a-half years, largely driven by higher energy costs linked to Middle East tensions. As a result, traders are currently pricing in a significant probability of a Fed rate hike later this year. Higher interest rate expectations continue to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Physical demand trends remained mixed across key consuming regions. In India, jewellery demand improved modestly as softer prices encouraged buying, although overall retail confidence remained cautious. Indian physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly net outflow in a year as investors booked profits following the recent price rally. In China, gold premiums eased as demand moderated, while other major Asian markets witnessed largely stable trading conditions. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults increased slightly to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May. Global gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $2 billion during May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America, although year-to-date inflows remain firmly positive. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 4.12% while prices moved higher. Gold is finding immediate support at 149,665, followed by 148,805. Resistance is seen at 151,220, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 151,915.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 148805-151915.

*  Gold gained as oil fell on rising hopes for a peace deal ‌between Iran and the United States.

*  Trump says US and Iran could sign peace deal soon

*  US producer prices increase more than expected in May

Silver

Silver prices rebounded sharply, settling 2.73% higher at 246,186 despite continued concerns over global interest rate expectations. The recovery was supported by easing geopolitical tensions after indications that a potential US-Iran peace agreement could be reached soon, which led to a decline in crude oil prices. However, the broader macroeconomic environment remained challenging for precious metals as major central banks continued to signal a restrictive monetary policy stance. The European Central Bank raised interest rates and revised its inflation forecasts higher for both 2026 and 2027, while US producer prices rose 6.5% year-on-year in May, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures. Strong US labour market conditions and resilient economic data have further reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated or consider additional tightening measures. Fundamentally, silver demand remains robust. China's silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical average for the month. The increase was driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of changes to export tax rebates. Higher domestic silver prices in China also encouraged global shipments into the country through arbitrage opportunities. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% at the end of May to 27,611 tonnes, reflecting healthy inventory levels. In India, the government has imposed restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products, which account for more than 90% of the country's silver imports. The move is aimed at reducing import volumes and easing pressure on the rupee after record silver imports worth $12 billion during FY2025-26. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh buying interest with open interest rising marginally alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at 241,790, with further downside support at 237,395. On the upside, resistance is placed at 248,790, and a decisive breakout above this level could open the door for a move towards 251,395.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 237395-251395.

* Silver rose as oil prices fell on growing optimism for a US-Iran peace deal.

* However, upside capped due to expectations of higher interest rates.

* US President Donald Trump suggested a deal could be reached as early as this weekend, though Tehran stated no final decision had been made

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 3.25% to settle at 8,073 as easing geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Market sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled plans for military strikes against Iran and indicated that negotiations were progressing toward a possible peace agreement. Expectations that a deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices in recent weeks. Although Iran stated that no final agreement had yet been reached, traders reacted positively to the prospect of de-escalation. Fundamentally, the oil market also faced pressure from a weaker demand outlook. OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Goldman Sachs also reduced its average Brent crude forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel from $85, citing expectations of higher supply and softer demand. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's crude shipments to China are expected to remain near record lows in July as Chinese refiners continue operating at reduced rates. On the supply side, U.S. Energy Information Administration data offered some support, showing crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels, substantially exceeding expectations for a 4 million-barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also declined, while refinery utilization increased to 95.3%. However, gasoline inventories posted a modest build, limiting bullish sentiment. Distillate inventories also declined slightly during the reporting period. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 9.19% while prices moved lower. Crude oil has immediate support at 7,886, followed by 7,699. Resistance is seen at 8,284, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains towards 8,495.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7699-8495.

* Crude oil extends losses as Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran

* US and Iran reached a peace agreement aimed at ending the Middle East conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the week

* OPEC lowers 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 bpd, raises 2027 demand growth

Natural gas 

Natural gas prices settled 0.78% higher at 296.7, supported by short covering despite a larger-than-expected weekly storage injection and a modest increase in supply. Market sentiment remained balanced as traders weighed strong storage levels against expectations for warmer weather and rising power-sector demand. The latest data showed U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, slightly below May’s average of 109.7 bcfd and below the record high of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. Weather forecasts continue to indicate above-normal temperatures through June 26, which is expected to increase air-conditioning demand and support gas consumption by power utilities. Demand fundamentals remain constructive, with LSEG projecting total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to rise from 102.9 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next week. However, LNG export activity remains somewhat constrained as average flows to major U.S. export terminals eased to 16.5 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance at facilities including Golden Pass and Freeport LNG. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that utilities injected 108 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended June 5, exceeding market expectations of a 99-bcf build and remaining above the five-year average increase of 95 bcf. Despite this, long-term fundamentals remain supportive. The EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, while LNG exports are also projected to continue expanding steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 9.01% while prices moved higher. Natural gas has immediate support at 290.5, followed by 284.4. Resistance is seen at 300.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 304.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 284.4-304.8.

* Natural gas gained amid expectations of stronger weather demand despite a larger-than-expected increase in gas storage levels.

* EIA reports storage build of 108 bcf, exceeding analyst expectations

* LSEG notes slight output rise, with June production above Wednesday's level

Copper

Copper prices settled 0.78% higher at 1,335.35, supported by improving risk sentiment after optimism emerged regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Easing geopolitical tensions helped reduce concerns about global economic growth and industrial metals demand. Additional support came from ongoing speculation surrounding potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, which has encouraged metal flows into the United States and tightened supply availability in other regions. However, gains were tempered by stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy and raised concerns about future industrial demand growth. Fundamental sentiment remains constructive due to long-term supply challenges. Jefferies expects copper markets to remain in a substantial supply deficit through 2030, while major producers continue facing operational constraints. Concerns surrounding slower production growth at key mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, continue to support prices. China's central bank has also encouraged increased bank lending, reinforcing expectations of stronger economic activity and industrial demand. Additionally, China's unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons, driven largely by strong investment in power infrastructure, where spending increased 37% during the first quarter of 2026. Despite supportive demand trends, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 30,000 metric tons in March and projects a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Nevertheless, major investment banks remain bullish. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper forecast to $13,735 per metric ton, while Citi increased its near-term forecast to $14,500 per ton, citing tightening supply conditions and tariff-related uncertainties. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 1.59% alongside higher prices. Copper has immediate support at 1,328.3, followed by 1,321.2. Resistance is seen at 1,341.7, and a breakout above this level could extend gains towards 1,348.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1321.2-1348.

* Copper climbed as rising optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement eased concerns about global growth.

* Stronger-than-expected US inflation data bolstered bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year.

* Jefferies expects copper prices to stay elevated for longer, citing an average annual supply deficit of 491,000 tons through 2030.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.11% higher at 368.8, supported by improving market sentiment as easing oil prices and optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran helped reduce concerns over further disruptions to global economic activity. Additional support came from tightening supply conditions following a series of production disruptions across key zinc-producing regions. Market participants continued to monitor the impact of operational setbacks, including a fire at Nexa Resources' Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, and reduced operations at Glencore-owned Kazzinc facilities in Kazakhstan following an explosion. These disruptions have reinforced concerns over refined metal availability and supported prices. Fundamentally, zinc continues to receive support from low inventories, mine closures, and delayed production recoveries. Goldman Sachs highlighted the possibility of prolonged lower output at Boliden's Garpenberg mine in Sweden following a seismic event earlier this year. However, some of the supply concerns were offset by expectations that production at Garpenberg will gradually resume during the second quarter. Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting also announced plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026-27 fiscal year. Meanwhile, China's central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy, providing support to industrial demand expectations. Despite this, concerns over slowing global growth and tighter monetary policy continue to cap upside potential. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 metric tons in March from 58,700 tons in February, indicating improving market balance. Goldman Sachs expects only a modest surplus this year before markets outside China potentially shift into deficit in coming years due to slowing mine supply growth. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 4.05% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at 365.6, followed by 362.2. Resistance is placed at 370.9, and a move above this level could extend gains towards 372.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 362.2-372.8.

* Zinc gains amid easing oil prices and a wave of optimism that a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran may be within reach.

* Prices also gained supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Factory-gate inflation in China, rose for a third straight month in May to its highest since 2022.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices ended marginally higher, settling 0.05% up at 375.25, supported by ongoing supply concerns in the global market. Sentiment was boosted after Norsk Hydro declared a second force majeure on aluminium sales from Qatar following the unexpected termination of a marketing agreement with its Qatalum joint venture. The market also remained supported by concerns that prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region could continue to disrupt production and logistics, especially as the region accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity. Tight physical availability further underpinned prices, with inventories in LME-registered warehouses remaining near multi-year lows. Supply-side concerns were reinforced by operational disruptions across key producing regions. Emirates Global Aluminium's flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain’s ALBA remain partially suspended. Additionally, stricter controls on bauxite exports from Guinea have raised concerns over raw material availability for global smelters. According to the International Aluminium Institute, primary aluminium production in the Gulf declined sharply in April, falling 35% year-on-year to 330,000 metric tons, its weakest level in more than a decade. Meanwhile, demand indicators remained supportive. China's industrial profits expanded at the fastest pace since November 2023, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products continued to strengthen. Chinese aluminium exports rose 5.68% in May and increased 10.4% during the first five months of 2026. Strong export demand, combined with robust domestic production margins, has helped maintain healthy activity levels across the sector. Chinese aluminium output rose 3.1% year-on-year in April, while imports also recorded steady growth amid supply concerns. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing by 1.63% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at 372.8, followed by 370.2. Resistance is placed at 378.0, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 380.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 370.2-380.6.

* Aluminium gains as Norsk Hydro declares new force majeure on Qatar aluminium

* J.P. Morgan reiterates $4,000/t target for aluminum

* Total aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained at a multi-year low.

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices rose by 1.54% to settle at 16,382, supported by fresh buying interest despite ongoing pressure from increased arrivals during the peak harvest season. Market participants continued to monitor higher farmer selling activity, as producers accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses. Faster arrivals across major mandis temporarily increased supply availability, while substantial inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal as of May-end, kept buyers cautious regarding aggressive purchases. Although short-term supply conditions remain comfortable, overall market sentiment received support from declining carry-forward stocks. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward inventories have fallen to nearly 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the broader supply outlook. Additional support came from sustained demand for quality-certified turmeric, particularly Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified varieties sought by European buyers. Active procurement inquiries from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric also helped strengthen sentiment in key Andhra Pradesh markets. Export performance remained mixed. Turmeric exports during March 2026 declined 16.80% year-on-year to 12,559.72 tonnes, reflecting softer international demand and heightened competition from global suppliers. However, shipments improved by 10.14% compared to February, indicating a gradual recovery in buying interest. On a cumulative basis, exports during April 2025 to March 2026 remained broadly stable at 175,896 tonnes, highlighting resilient long-term demand despite near-term volatility. The Southwest Monsoon's progress across southern India and forecasts for above-normal rainfall have improved prospects for the upcoming sowing season. Early reports suggest increased acreage in major producing regions following the recent period of elevated prices. At the same time, the absence of significant weather disruptions has reduced the weather-related risk premium in the market. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising sharply by 38.84% to 16,390 contracts while prices gained 248 rupees. Turmeric has immediate support at 16,128, with further support at 15,872. Resistance is seen at 16,630, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 16,876.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15872-16876.

* Turmeric prices gained on short covering after prices dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15735.3 Rupees gained by 0.52 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices gained 1.58% to settle at 19,620, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality stocks and renewed export demand from key international markets. Buyers from Europe and North America have returned to the market, focusing primarily on residue-compliant and high-specification cumin lots. In addition, large industrial processors have increased procurement to replenish inventories at relatively attractive price levels, providing further support to market sentiment. Supply-side concerns also contributed to the price rise. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged portions of the standing crop during the harvest period, raising concerns about reduced availability of high-grade produce. Unseasonal rainfall across North-West India also delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary supply disruptions. While overall stock availability remains comfortable, market participants noted that the proportion of premium "Sortex" grade carryover stocks is significantly lower than last year, supporting stronger prices for quality material. However, gains remained capped by increasing arrivals from major producing regions. Improved weather conditions enabled faster harvesting across Rajasthan and Gujarat, resulting in higher daily arrivals rather than the staggered flow initially anticipated. Farmers are actively releasing stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, while arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at around 28,500 bags per day, keeping overall supply pressure elevated. Production estimates continue to indicate a smaller crop this season. National jeera production is estimated at around 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting lower acreage and reduced yields, particularly in Gujarat. Reports of blight disease in key producing areas have further impacted crop quality and output. Market participants are also monitoring expectations of increased Chinese buying interest, which could provide additional support to export demand. Export data showed mixed trends. March 2026 exports declined 15.54% year-on-year to 14,642.73 tonnes, although shipments improved 17.64% compared to February, indicating better inquiry levels. Cumulative exports during April 2025–March 2026 fell 14.74% from the previous year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 8.97% to 6,996 contracts while prices advanced. Jeera has immediate support at 19,340, followed by 19,070. Resistance is seen at 19,790, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 19,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19070-19970.

* Jeera prices gained as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that weighed on prices.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19516.75 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views