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Gold

Gold prices rebounded sharply, settling 1.11% higher at 145,300 as a slightly weaker U.S. dollar supported buying interest, although investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The recovery also reflected short covering after recent declines, while market participants continued to evaluate the implications of inflation risks and future interest rate decisions. The minutes from the June 2026 FOMC meeting showed policymakers remained divided over the path of monetary policy. While several officials acknowledged that persistent inflation risks could justify another rate hike, many continued to expect interest rates to finish the year at or slightly below current levels under their base-case outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently assigning a 63% probability of a September rate hike. Meanwhile, HSBC revised its gold price forecasts lower, citing stronger U.S. dollar expectations and a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, projecting average gold prices of $4,560 per ounce for 2026 and $4,925 for 2027. Physical demand presented a mixed picture across Asia. Indian demand softened as domestic prices rebounded from recent lows, while buying interest in China improved modestly. The People's Bank of China continued its long-term reserve diversification strategy, increasing gold holdings for the twentieth consecutive month with a substantial addition of around 15 metric tons during June, marking the largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Gold holdings in London vaults also edged higher to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 1.49% while prices advanced strongly. Gold finds immediate support near 143,795, followed by 142,290, whereas resistance is seen at 146,110, with a sustained breakout potentially extending gains toward 146,920.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142290-146920.

*  Gold edged higher on ‌a slightly weaker dollar, though investors remained cautious, closely watching developments in ME.

*  Fed officials were divided on the future of interest rates and discussed a range of scenarios for the evolution of the economy and policy.

*  HSBC lowered ‌its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,560 per ounce from $4,864 and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000.

Silver 

Silver prices extended gains, settling 1.32% higher at 226,377, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, although advances remained limited as investors closely monitored rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation and global monetary policy. Market sentiment remained cautious after fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, comments from President Donald Trump indicating that Iran had expressed interest in negotiations helped ease fears of a broader regional conflict. The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes highlighted continued concern over inflation, with several policymakers suggesting that another interest rate hike could become necessary despite rates being left unchanged at the previous meeting. Markets are currently pricing a 63% probability of a September rate hike. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund maintained its 2026 global growth forecast at 3%, reflecting stronger-than-expected resilience of the global economy despite geopolitical tensions and continued support from artificial intelligence-driven investment. The IMF also raised its 2027 global growth forecast to 3.4% while projecting global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing in 2027. Fundamental developments remained mixed for silver. Holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% during May to 27,611 tonnes, indicating stable investment demand. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged sharply in May following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties aimed at reducing precious metal imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves after record import levels during the previous financial year. Technically, silver remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 3.25% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at 222,690, followed by 219,000, while resistance is seen at 228,880. A sustained move above this level could open the way for further gains toward 231,380.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 219000-231380.

* Silver rose supported by a softer dollar, though gains were capped as investors remained focused on escalating tensions in ME.

* Fed’s minutes showed growing concern over inflation, with several policymakers seeing a case for a rate hike.

* Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027 - IMF

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined 3.1% to settle at 6,854 as traders booked profits after the recent rally driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite the correction, market sentiment remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding the renewed conflict between the United States and Iran. The U.S. military confirmed a second consecutive day of strikes on Iranian targets, while Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the region. President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire had effectively ended and warned of additional military action, including a potential blockade and possible strikes on Iran's Kharg Island export terminal, keeping concerns over global oil supply disruptions firmly in focus. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted, with tanker traffic nearly at a standstill amid heightened security risks. The disruption continued to raise concerns over global crude supplies despite HSBC lowering its Brent crude price forecast to $80 per barrel for 2026 and $65 per barrel for 2027, based on expectations that Gulf oil exports will gradually normalize by the end of September. U.S. inventory data presented a mixed outlook. Crude oil inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories also fell, indicating healthy fuel demand, while distillate inventories increased unexpectedly. Crude stocks at Cushing rose for the first time in ten weeks, refinery utilization improved, and net crude imports increased. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed another production target increase from August, signaling additional supply despite ongoing logistical disruptions in the Gulf. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 6.15% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at 6,746, followed by 6,638, while resistance is placed at 7,053. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 7,252.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6638-7252.

* Crude oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained after the US military confirmed it had carried out strikes on Iran.

* US crude oil inventories increased by 2.998 mbls to 411.3 mbls, marking the first rise after ten consecutive weeks of declines.

* Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz at near standstill as attacks strain Iran truce

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined sharply by 6.53% to settle at 287.7 as expectations of comfortable storage levels outweighed supportive forecasts for above-normal summer temperatures. Market sentiment remained bearish after inventory data indicated that gas supplies would stay above seasonal averages despite strong cooling demand driven by persistent warm weather across much of the United States. Production trends remained relatively stable, although average dry gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day in July from 110.0 bcfd in June. Weather forecasts continue to indicate above-normal temperatures through July 23, supporting electricity demand for air conditioning and keeping gas consumption by power generators elevated. At the same time, average total gas demand, including exports, is expected to remain near 109.8 bcfd over the next two weeks. LNG export activity also improved, with average gas flows to major U.S. export terminals rising to 17.8 bcfd in July, although still below the record level reached in April. The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed storage increased by 61 billion cubic feet during the week ended July 3, exceeding both market expectations and the five-year seasonal average. Total working gas in storage climbed to 2.983 trillion cubic feet, remaining 6.6% above the five-year average, reinforcing expectations of comfortable supply conditions. Looking ahead, the EIA projects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026, supported by rising LNG exports and increasing domestic demand, while coal production is expected to continue its long-term decline. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest surging 109.95% alongside falling prices, indicating aggressive bearish positioning. Immediate support is seen at 279.7, followed by 271.8, while resistance is placed at 302.7. A sustained move above this level could trigger further recovery toward 317.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 271.8-317.8.

* Natural gas slid on expectations the amount of gas in storage will remain higher than normal for weeks to come.

* Gas inventories were projected at 6.2% above normal for the week ended July 3

* Hotter-than-normal weather through July 23 should boost gas burn for air-conditioning

Copper

Copper prices gained 1.95% to settle at 1,292.8, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, sentiment remained cautious as ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continued to cloud the global manufacturing outlook. Although London Metal Exchange inventories remain tight, the cash copper contract traded at a discount to the three-month contract, indicating that immediate physical demand remains comfortable despite low exchange stocks. Fundamental developments presented a mixed picture. Supply concerns persisted after Chile's copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May, while disruptions to sulphuric acid availability due to Middle East tensions continued to affect refining operations. However, Ivanhoe Mines expects higher production from its Kamoa-Kakula complex during the second half of 2026, which should improve global mine supply. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 9.6% during the week, reflecting healthy physical demand in China, while China's refined copper production continued to increase. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper market deficit of 145,000 metric tons in April as global consumption exceeded production, highlighting tightening supply conditions despite a surplus during the first four months of the year. China's copper imports strengthened after six consecutive months of contraction, supported by robust investment in power grid infrastructure, while lower concentrate imports suggested tighter raw material availability. Major investment banks also maintained a constructive outlook. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per metric ton, while Citi increased its near-term target to $14,500, citing tighter global supply and ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 2.07% while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at 1,272.2, followed by 1,251.6, whereas resistance is seen at 1,305.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,317.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1251.6-1317.6.

* Copper rose as the market hopes for another de-escalation in hostilities in the Gulf and the U.S. dollar dips.

* The cash LME copper contract was trading at a $68-a-ton discount to the three-month forward.

* Ivanhoe Mines said copper production at its flagship Kamoa-Kakula complex is set to rise in the second half of 2026.

Zinc

Zinc prices advanced 1.93% to settle at 375.9, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and improving manufacturing activity across major economies. A stronger manufacturing outlook from China, Europe, and the United States boosted sentiment for industrial metals, while supply disruptions at key mining and smelting operations continued to underpin prices despite higher input costs. Fundamentally, China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting healthy domestic output, while inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.2% from the previous week, indicating stable physical demand. U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month, although growth moderated slightly from the strong pace recorded in May. On the supply side, Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan continues to operate below capacity following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming operations after fire-related disruptions. Production concerns also persist at Boliden's Garpenberg mine following earlier seismic activity, keeping the refined zinc market relatively tight. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 metric tons in March, although the market remained in surplus during the first four months of the year. Meanwhile, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026-27 financial year. Goldman Sachs expects a modest global zinc surplus this year but anticipates supply deficits outside China from 2027 as mine supply growth slows and demand continues to expand steadily. Technically, zinc remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 10.66% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at 370.4, followed by 365.0, while resistance is seen at 379.6. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 383.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 365-383.4.

* Zinc rose amid tightening near-term supply while manufacturing data supported demand expectations.

* The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 tons in March

* Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity after an explosion.

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices gained 1.93% to settle at 343.95, supported by tightening exchange inventories and renewed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Sentiment improved as London Metal Exchange aluminium stocks declined to 289,225 tonnes, the lowest level since September 2022, while the cash contract moved into a premium after nearly two weeks of contango, reflecting tighter near-term physical availability. Supply concerns resurfaced following renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh uncertainty over regional metal supplies. Japanese buyers also agreed to pay a record quarterly premium of $395 per metric ton for July-September shipments, highlighting firm demand in Asia. Emirates Global Aluminium announced that production at its Al Taweelah facility is recovering faster than expected after disruptions caused by earlier Iranian strikes, although full capacity is still expected to take up to a year to restore. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro confirmed plans to partially restart production at its Slovalco joint venture in Slovakia under a new long-term power agreement. Fundamental data remained mixed as China's aluminium production increased 1.7% year-on-year in May, extending a nine-month growth streak, while Indonesian smelters also continued to raise output. However, inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.4%, and global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China's imports and exports of unwrought aluminium also increased, reflecting resilient trade activity despite geopolitical uncertainty. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 3.81% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at 338.4, followed by 332.6, whereas resistance is seen at 347.2. A sustained breakout above this level could extend the recovery toward 350.2, indicating improving short-term market momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 332.6-350.2.

* Aluminium rose as support seen after LME aluminium stocks of 289,225 tons are the lowest since September 2022.

* The cash aluminium contract was meanwhile commanding a slight premium of $3.75, after 13 straight days of contango.

* Global primary aluminium output in May fell 1.7% year on year to 6.15 million tonnes  - IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rebounded sharply, settling 2.85% higher at 18,390, driven mainly by short covering after recent declines. Earlier weakness was linked to improved monsoon rainfall, which eased concerns over the upcoming crop and encouraged expectations of better production prospects. Market participants continue to monitor weather conditions closely to determine whether favorable rainfall will translate into sustained output improvements during the new season. Despite the recovery, fundamental factors remain mixed. Farmers have accelerated stock liquidation during the peak harvest period, leading to increased arrivals across major mandis and creating short-term supply pressure. Reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals have also forced sellers to offer lower prices. However, overall supplies remain structurally tight due to lower production and significantly reduced carry-forward stocks. Industry estimates place carry-forward inventories at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, limiting overall market availability. Demand has also become more selective as some buyers shift toward lower-cost substitutes or delay purchases while waiting for price corrections. At the same time, rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers continues to provide support for premium quality supplies. India's turmeric export performance remained stable during April 2026, with shipments increasing marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes. Strong export growth to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan helped offset weaker demand from the United Arab Emirates and the United States. Bangladesh remained the largest export destination, while spot prices at Nizamabad also recorded modest gains. Technically, turmeric is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 0.63% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at 18,108, followed by 17,828, while resistance is seen at 18,554. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 18,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17828-18720.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after seen pressure as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased crop concerns.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production

* Growing orders for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the EU are supporting prices for compliant stocks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 17229.6 Rupees gained by 0.9 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged 0.47% higher to settle at 20,425, supported by short covering and tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds. Although overall physical supplies remain adequate, the availability of export-grade, high-purity seeds has declined faster than expected. Arrivals in key producing markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to slow, providing support to prices despite generally comfortable market supplies. The upside, however, remained limited as farmers continued aggressive selling to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities. Favorable weather across northwestern India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating crop arrivals into the market. At the same time, rising stocks in NCDEX warehouses reduced the urgency for traders to procure supplies from the spot market. Export demand also remained mixed, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting logistics and buying interest from traditional importers. Chinese demand has remained inconsistent and price-sensitive, while domestic spice processors have preferred hand-to-mouth purchases instead of building large inventories. Nevertheless, buying interest from European and North American importers for residue-compliant and premium-quality lots has provided some support. Crop quality has also been affected in parts of Gujarat due to blight disease, further tightening supplies of superior-grade produce. Production estimates indicate lower output this season because of reduced sowing acreage, with India's jeera production projected at around 90 to 92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Export data for April 2026 showed an 18% decline in shipments, mainly due to weaker demand from the UAE, although exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 7.25% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 20,290, followed by 20,150, while resistance is placed at 20,550. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 20,670.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20150-20670.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20460.95 Rupees dropped by -0.24 percent.

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