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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 142167 as a rebound in oil prices fanned inflation worries and bolstered higher-for-longer interest rate expectations, with Fed officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin backing further interest rate increases and favouring gradual tightening as inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, while traders currently see a 68% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December according to CME's FedWatch tool. Reflecting these hawkish policy implications, Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650 and its end-2027 forecast to $4,800/oz from $5,400/oz, whereas Citi maintains a 0-3 month point price target of $4,500 per ounce and a 6-12 month target of $5,000 per ounce. Meanwhile, World Gold Council data showed global gold ETFs saw $2.7bn of net inflows in October with holdings rising 19 tonnes to 4,275 tonnes, though AUM fell 6% to $542bn following a monthly price drop, and Perth Mint's gold product sales declined nearly 30% in October to 32,933 ounces. Physical gold demand picked up in major Asian hubs as lower prices encouraged Indian retail buying ahead of Diwali and drew Chinese buyers back when global benchmark gold slipped below $4,000 an ounce, with Indian dealers quoting premiums up to $4 an ounce and Chinese bullion trading from flat to a $9-an-ounce premium. China's gold consumption in Jan–Sep 2026 reached 684.623 t, up 0.28% YoY, while the China Gold Association reported domestic output of 347.990 tonnes and noted that China added 103.26 tonnes of gold in the first three quarters to bring reserves to 2,409.59 tonnes. The WGC cut its full-year gold investment growth forecast to 200 metric tons from 400 tons while raising its central bank purchase estimate, noting that Q3 bar and coin demand dropped 19% to 268 tons and jewellery fell 17% to 313 tons, while central bank purchases rose 42% to 321 tons. In India, the WGC expects gold demand to fall to a six-year low in 2026 to around 650 metric tons due to elevated prices, rising living costs from the Iran war, and a weak monsoon, with Q3 demand down 29% year-on-year to 162.5 metric tons. Technically the market is under fresh selling as open interest gained 0.35% to settle at 15771 while prices dropped 1928 rupees, and Gold is now getting support at 141280 with a potential test below pointing to 140400 levels, while resistance is expected at 142970 and a move above could see prices testing 143770.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 133240-140810.

• Gold slid as oil prices climbed on fading hopes for peace in the Middle East that spurred fears of higher inflation.

• US President Donald Trump said that the US did not need a deal with Iran.

• Fed’s Waller said a core inflation reading of 0.3% in October would prompt him to consider a half-point hike at the December meeting.

• China's central bank extended its run of gold purchases to a 24th consecutive month in October.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 184787 as the US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, comfortably above market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 4.1%, and previous employment figures were revised upward by a combined 84,000. Further reinforcing the hawkish outlook, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% against 0.3% forecasts, while renewed crude oil price gains added to inflationary concerns, though silver was up more than 6% for the week on broader safe-haven demand after a Democratic victory in US midterms. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stressed that inflation remains too high and must return to 2%, noting pressures from energy prices driven by the US war on Iran and rising IT costs from AI investment, while Perth Mint's silver sales fell 36% in October to 388,536 ounces, down about 63% year-on-year. On the fundamental front, London vault holdings reached 28,985 tonnes valued at $56.6 billion at the end of September 2026, representing a 1.95% monthly increase across approximately 966,175 silver bars. The silver market heads for a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, raising liquidity squeeze risks, while prices remain down 35% from January's record high of $121.6 an ounce following a 147% surge in 2025 driven by retail buying. Metals Focus estimates that 28% of the 884 million ounces held in London vaults at end-March were unencumbered and available to support liquidity, up from a 17% historic low in September. The global silver market deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million in 2025, as a 2% drop in total demand—including a 3% fall in industrial fabrication to a four-year low—is outweighed by an 18% rise in coin and bar demand alongside a 2% decline in total global supply. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest gained 0.75% to settle at 16826 while prices dropped by 2353 rupees, with silver currently finding support at 182820 and potential downside testing toward 180850, while resistance is pegged at 186520 and a move above could test 188250.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 174170-185530.

• Silver prices fell as a stronger US dollar, rising oil prices and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening weighed.

• Stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation data for October, pushed the dollar to a 19-month high and reinforced bets on further Fed rate hikes.

• Markets are pricing in nearly a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December

• Investors now await US producer price index data due on Friday for further cues on inflation and the monetary policy outlook.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.18% at 8459 as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East eased concerns over supply disruptions, following US President Donald Trump discussing de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Tehran reportedly reviewing proposals concerning its nuclear programme. While a potential resolution could allow more exports, significant obstacles remain as Iran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen assets before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, alongside ongoing vessel attacks near record levels per UKMTO data. Meanwhile, JPMorgan estimates the market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, while US crude production rose by 11,000 barrels per day to a record 14.003 million bpd in the week ended October 30. Fundamental data from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels, defying expectations for a build, while Cushing storage rose by 280,000 barrels, refinery crude runs increased by 199,000 bpd, and utilization rates rose by 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%. US gasoline stocks fell by 222,000 barrels to 209 million barrels, distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million barrels, and net US crude imports rose by 1.18 million bpd. Concurrently, OPEC raised its 2027 world oil demand growth forecast to rebuild depleted inventories, lowered its 2026 growth forecast for the sixth straight revision, and reported an OPEC+ production jump in September led by Saudi Arabia pumping 8.372 million bpd, while Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais noted this year's demand growth forecast has been revised down to 400,000 bpd. The IEA reported Russian crude production increased by 65,000 bpd in September to 8.43 million bpd, sitting 870,000 bpd below year-ago levels, with Russian crude exports rising 60,000 bpd to 5.3 million bpd and Kazakhstan output holding steady at 1.9 million bpd, contrasting with OPEC's figure showing Russian production declining by 38,000 bpd to 8.643 million bpd. Technically, the market is under long unwinding as open interest dropped by 0.15% to settle at 7486 alongside a price fall of 101 rupees, with crude oil now getting support at 8300 and a break below potentially testing 8145 levels, while resistance is seen at 8680 and a move above could test 8900.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 7810-8470.

• Crude oil gains as President Trump said the US no longer needs a deal with Iran, raising supply concerns

• Saudi Arabia reported a 26% increase in oil production in October, bringing output to one of its highest monthly levels in years.

• US crude oil inventories increased by 4.657 million barrels, marking the largest build since August and reversing five consecutive weeks of declines.

• OPEC+ crude production rose in October, driven by higher Saudi Arabian output despite shipping disruptions through the strait.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 283.6 on forecasts for cooler weather in late November, record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a drop in output in recent weeks, as financial firm LSEG reported that average gas output in the US Lower 48 states fell to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in November from 113.4 bcfd in October and a monthly record high of 115.0 bcfd in August. Historically, record output and mild spring weather kept inventories above the five-year average since March, peaking at 7.7% above normal in April, before hotter summer weather forced larger storage withdrawals to fuel power plants, cutting the surplus to just 1% above normal in mid-October, with about 40% of US power generation coming from gas-fired plants and storage likely climbing to 2.1% above normal during the week ended November 6 compared to 1.4% in the previous week. Fundamentally, US energy companies added 77 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage in the week ended October 30, missing market expectations for an 81 bcf injection, bringing total inventories to 3.801 trillion cubic feet, which is 2.8% below year-earlier levels but 1.4% above the five-year average following an 80 bcf injection in the week ended October 23. Meanwhile, the EIA projected in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that US supply and demand will reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, with dry gas production rising from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, domestic consumption growing from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.4 bcfd in 2026 and 93.8 bcfd in 2027, and average LNG exports increasing from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, surpassing September's projections. Conversely, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80/MMBtu from $3.50/MMBtu due to higher Permian production expectations where supply growth exceeds demand by over 2 Bcf/d, recommending producers hedge 2027 exposure while anticipating well-supplied near-term markets that may take until 2029 to tighten and reach high-$3/MMBtu levels, and eventually moving above $4/MMBtu by 2031 to incentivize supply growth, highlighting a bearish medium-term outlook driven by stronger production. Spot market conditions reflect these dynamics, and technically the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 4.48% to settle at 50,974 while prices rose by 1.5 rupees, with Natural gas now finding support at 277.00 and potential downside testing of 270.50 levels, while resistance is seen at 288.50, above which prices could test 293.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 298.50-324.00.

• Natural gas climbed on forecasts for seasonally colder weather, near-record LNG exports and a decline in output in recent weeks.

• Storage surplus likely widened to 2.1% above five-year norm ahead of delayed federal report

• Average gas output fell to 112.4 bcfd so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October

• The return of mild weather and lower-than-usual demand in recent weeks have left more gas available for energy firms to inject into storage.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 1339.3 as a rout in technology stocks battered broader markets, driven further by Democratic wins in the US midterms that fueled concerns over potential new regulatory oversight capping the artificial intelligence buildout. Despite this macro headwind, persistent supply constraints cushioned the downside, highlighted by the closely watched Yangshan copper premium increasing to $210 a ton, its joint highest since Shanghai Metal Markets began tracking it in 2012, alongside a 24.1% drop in Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored warehouse inventories from the previous Friday. US copper imports in September dipped 3.1% from August to 194,284 metric tons of refined copper and copper alloys—down from 200,519 tons in August and a record 225,094 tons in July—yet remained almost double year-ago levels as metal continued flowing ahead of possible tariffs. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China announced it will raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 2 percentage points to 6% from 4%, effective November 15, aiming to tighten dollar liquidity and slow the yuan’s recent appreciation. On the fundamental front, the global refined copper market recorded a 132,000 metric tons surplus in August compared with a 45,000 metric tons deficit in July, according to the International Copper Study Group, bringing the cumulative surplus for the first eight months of the year to 218,000 metric tons versus 158,000 metric tons a year earlier, with world refined output at 2.47 million metric tons and consumption at 2.34 million metric tons in August. The ICSG further projected the global market surplus to widen from about 104,000 metric tons in 2026 to 368,000 metric tons in 2027, anticipating world refined production to rise by 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 driven by smelter ramp-ups in Indonesia, India, and the EU, while apparent usage grows 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 supported by energy transition, urbanisation, digitalisation, and semiconductor development. Concurrently, China's September copper imports rose 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes. Spot market tightness was underscored by Chilean output data showing July production at state miner Codelco fell 5% year-on-year to 112,800 metric tons amid ongoing operational setbacks, while BHP-controlled Escondida slumped 22.1% to 89,400 tons, Collahuasi rose 12.3% to 38,400 tons, and overall Chilean production slid 9.4% due to northern severe weather and maintenance, prompting Chile's copper commission Cochilco to sharply lower its 2026 output forecast, anticipate a milder-than-expected 2027 recovery, and raise average price forecasts to $6.18 per pound in 2026 and $5.95 per pound in 2027. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest gained 0.27% to settle at 7345 while prices dropped 11.85 rupees, with immediate support identified at 1328.50 and a breach below potentially testing 1317.50 levels, while resistance is expected near 1349.00, a break above which could see prices testing 1359.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1309.00-1349.50.

• Copper prices dropped as the market fretted about weak demand and expectations of US interest rate hikes.

• Chile's copper commission Cochilco said that production at Escondida, fell 21% year-on-year in September.

• CITI bank cut its three-month copper price forecast to $13,300 a ton from $14,500.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 411.65 weighed down by a rout in technology stocks, although supply concerns limited the downside alongside pressures from the prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability which could ease supply tightness. Downside was capped amid tightening global mine supply, concerns over disruptions at major smelters including operational incidents at Korea Zinc, Glencore’s Kazzinc, and YoungPoong’s Seokpo smelter, and weaker Chinese zinc concentrate imports that pushed treatment charges to record lows while prompting smelters to scale back refined production. Western market supply concerns also intensified due to uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar’s loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands. China's zinc ore imports have declined since April, while northern mines will curtail output in November during winter ore stockpiling. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in October with the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI easing to 52.0 from 52.1 in September, marking 11 consecutive months above the 50-point threshold. Near-term tightness was evident as the premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract spiked to $106 a ton from $45 last week, and Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories fell 6.3% from last Friday. China’s refined zinc output fell 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, and contracted in August for the first time in nearly a year. Conversely, Chinese mine output is expected to rise in October following resumed operations, Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, Mitsui Kinzoku plans a 32% year-on-year increase in second-half fiscal 2026 refined zinc production to 117,700 metric tons, and availability of concentrates will rise in Canada, Japan, Kazakhstan, and Peru. Fundamental data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed the global refined zinc market swung to a deficit of 3,900 metric tons in August from a surplus of 27,500 tons in July, with a surplus of 96,000 tons during the first eight months compared to 133,000 tons in the same period of 2025. The ILZSG expects the market to swing to a surplus of 25,000 metric tons in 2027 from a deficit of 88,000 tons this year, with 2027 demand rising by 1.2% to 14.19 million tons driven by Europe, India, and the US, while Chinese demand growth slows to 0.3% due to reduced real estate investment. Global refined zinc production is projected to rise by 2% to 14.21 million tons and mine production by 3% to 12.78 million tons in 2027. Additionally, WBMS data showed China's net imports of refined zinc collapsed by 79% year-on-year to 38,000 tons in January to June as the country reaches self-sufficiency. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest gained 2.08% to settle at 1,571 while prices dropped 2.7 rupees, with support seen at 408.50 and a potential test below at 406.00 levels, while resistance is expected at 414.50 and a move above could see prices testing 417.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 404.00-413.50.

• Zinc dropped as US dollar reaching its highest level since April 2025 amid growing expectations of further Fed rate hikes.

• Pressure also seen as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

• However downside seen limited amid tightening global mine supply and concerns over disruptions at major smelters.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 330.3 amid concerns over improving global supply prospects and expectations of a potential market surplus in 2027, though downside was capped after reports indicated global inventories fell to 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, alongside support from a weaker dollar following an unexpected sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Recovering Middle East production, resilient Chinese output, and rapidly expanding Indonesian capacity are expected to narrow the current year's supply deficit and shift the global market into surplus next year, with earlier estimates of 3 to 3.5 million tonnes of lost Middle East production now revised lower to less than 2 million tonnes as operational run rates improve, while Jefferies noted that aluminium prices have dropped about 17% since early June due to resumed production, though U.S. executives expect restarts to be slower amid severe economics like high alumina import costs and harder pre-war planned capacity additions. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories fell 30.6% from last Friday, and Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter to restore 50% capacity ahead of full production in Q1 2027. China's primary aluminium production hit a record quarterly high in July to September at 11.84 million metric tons, up 2.2% year-on-year, driven by high operating rates despite a longstanding 45-million-ton annual smelting capacity ceiling, with September output rising 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tons though easing from August's record 3.98 million tons, while the International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production in September 2026 at 6.014 million tonnes with daily output averaging 200.5 kt/day, alongside a broader August global production decline of 1.5% year-on-year led by a 43% plunge in Gulf Cooperation Council output to 299,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 8.92% to settle at 3,616 while prices gained 0.45 rupees, with Aluminium now getting support at 327.50 and a break below risking a test of 325.00, while resistance is seen at 332.00 and a move above could test 333.50 levels.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.00-335.00.

• Aluminium dropped amid concerns over improving global supply prospects and expectations of a potential market surplus in 2027.

• The cash aluminium contract on the LME traded at its biggest premium over the three-month forward in 36 years

• Aluminium stocks in LME warehouses at 226,350 tons have dropped nearly 56% since January.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled higher by 1.65% at 28026 amid active profit booking after prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates for the upcoming season. Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability after the steep run-up, while physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious with thinned physical off-take. However, downside was capped by growing concerns over uncertain weather conditions in major producing regions, lower daily arrivals estimated at around 6,000 bags—about 2,000 bags lower than the previous session—and tighter carry-forward stocks estimated at roughly 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season. Weather trends remain a pivotal influence, as Maharashtra experienced persistently dry conditions, while cyclonic rainfall is forecast for South India, though monsoon revivals across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka along with reservoir replenishment have eased some crop failure fears. Stricter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits have caused rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, while demand for IPM-certified turmeric remains supportive. On the export front, India’s August 2026 shipments declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes, though cumulative exports for April to August 2026 rose 4% to 65,476 tonnes, aided by notable gains in shipments to the UAE, the Netherlands, and Brazil, which offset sharp declines in Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, prices ended down by 0.11% at 24954.1 rupees. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying as open interest gained 1.24% to settle at 18710 alongside a price increase of 454 rupees, with immediate support identified at 27590 and a potential test below that pointing toward 27150, while resistance is expected at 28430, a breach of which could lead prices to test the 28830 level.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 27910-30200.

• Turmeric prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

• Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

• Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 27436 Rupees gained by 1.07 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled up by 0.29% at 27550 yesterday, supported by rising export demand, tightening domestic and global supplies, and concerns over weather conditions and limited water availability linked to the El Niño phenomenon, which could affect agricultural output, lower yields, and create uncertainty over sowing in key cumin-growing regions like Rajasthan where inadequate soil moisture may influence decisions, while the Gujarat government has declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts. With Syrian supplies remaining minimal, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher despite China beginning to cultivate its own crop, though upside momentum remained capped by profit booking, expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan, aggressive liquidation of stocks by farmers for immediate cash flow, faster harvesting and drying due to favorable North-West Indian weather, and improved production prospects in secondary origins like Turkey and Syria that weighed on export premiums as domestic processors moved away from aggressive forward coverage and restricted procurement to need-based daily requirements amid a slowdown in seasonal pipeline replenishment. Fundamental estimates indicate national cumin production for the current season is projected at 90 to 92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat contributing an estimated 42 to 45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48 to 50 lakh bags, alongside international production forecasts of 70 to 80 thousand tons in China, 9 to 10 thousand tons in Syria, 10 to 11 thousand tons in Turkey, and 10 to 12 thousand tons in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, India’s jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026 compared to 14,532 tonnes in August 2025, bringing cumulative April-August exports to 65,128 tonnes down from 87,558 tonnes last year, driven by increases in shipments to the USA up 16.5% to 1,517 tonnes, Singapore up 1,442% to 633 tonnes, and Mexico up 149.5% to 373 tonnes, which offset sharp declines in shipments to the UAE down 81.6% to 453 tonnes and Bangladesh down 45.8% to 569 tonnes, while broader annual exports from September 2025 to August 2026 fell 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes with Bangladesh remaining the largest destination at 23,541 tonnes followed by the UAE at 17,383 tonnes and the USA at 16,998 tonnes. In the physical market, spot prices at the benchmark Unjha APMC market ended subdued and gained 0.01% to close at 27181.1 Rupees as processors and millers resisted elevated spot quotes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 18.25% to settle at 4449 while prices rose by 80 rupees, with jeera now finding immediate support at 27340 and a breach below potentially testing 27130 levels, while resistance is expected at 27810 and a move above could see prices testing 28070.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 27830-29910.

• Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

• Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

• With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 27181.1 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

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