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Gold

Gold settled lower by 0.58% at 139716, pressured by stronger-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers, which reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening. US CPI increased 0.4% in October, prompting markets to price in a 100% probability of a December rate hike, with expectations of a larger 50-basis-point increase also gaining traction. Fed officials Christopher Waller, Anna Paulson and Michelle Bowman maintained a hawkish stance, adding pressure on non-yielding precious metals. Speculative net long positions declined by 3,107 contracts to 104,297 in the week ended November 3, indicating some reduction in bullish sentiment. However, downside was limited by continued central bank accumulation, with China's gold reserves rising to 78.3 million fine troy ounces in October, extending its purchasing streak to 24 consecutive months. China's gold consumption increased 0.28% year-on-year to 684.623 tonnes during January-September 2026, supported by a 26.26% increase in bar and coin demand, although jewellery consumption declined 33.86%. China's total gold production fell 11.44% to 347.99 tonnes during the same period. The World Gold Council lowered its investment demand growth forecast to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, citing weaker bar and coin demand, but raised its central bank purchase expectations. Global gold ETFs recorded inflows of 211 tonnes in the third quarter, while central bank purchases increased 42% to 321 tonnes. India's gold demand is expected to decline to around 650 tonnes in 2026, its lowest level since 2020, as elevated prices and weaker rural demand weigh on jewellery consumption. Nevertheless, physical buying improved across Asian markets as lower prices encouraged Indian retail purchases ahead of Diwali and attracted Chinese buyers. Overall, central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty remain supportive, while higher interest rate expectations and subdued jewellery demand are weighing on sentiment. Technically, gold is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 0.12% to settle at 16429 contracts while prices fell by Rs 809. Immediate support is placed at 138860, followed by 138000, while resistance is seen at 141280. A sustained move above 141280 could push prices towards 142850, whereas a break below 138860 may extend the downside pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 138000-142850.

• Gold dropped driven by hot US inflation data and hawkish Fed’s comments that boosted bets on further rate hikes.

• US consumer prices rose more than expected in October, with the CPI increasing 0.4%.

• Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to hike 25bps in December and 25bps in March 2027; it had previously forecast only a December hike.

• India’s gold ETF inflows in October falling to 3,474.03 crore rupees from 4,450.61 crore in September.

Silver

Silver settled higher by 1.07% at 184525, recovering from the previous session's losses as short covering emerged following a sharp decline driven by hawkish Federal Reserve comments and stronger-than-expected US inflation data. US headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, above market expectations of 0.3%, while core inflation remained steady at 0.3% for the third consecutive month, indicating persistent price pressures. Hawkish comments from Fed officials Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan strengthened expectations of further monetary tightening, with markets pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a December rate hike. Speculative net long positions declined by 238 contracts to 2665 in the week to November 3, reflecting reduced bullish positioning. Perth Mint silver sales fell 36% month-on-month to 388536 ounces in October, highlighting weaker investment demand amid elevated interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, silver held in London vaults increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28985 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $56.6 billion. Fundamentally, the silver market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Despite an expected 2% decline in overall demand, coin and bar demand is forecast to increase 18%, while industrial silver fabrication is expected to decline 3% due to weaker economic conditions. Global silver supply is also projected to fall 2%, maintaining the structural supply deficit. Although liquidity conditions have improved with increased metal availability in London vaults, cumulative stock drawdowns of 762 million ounces since 2021 continue to highlight underlying supply tightness. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 6.11% to settle at 15981 contracts while prices increased by Rs 1949. Immediate support is placed at 183080, followed by 181630, while resistance is seen at 186970. A sustained move above 186970 could push prices towards 189420, whereas a break below 183080 may invite further selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 181630-189420.

• Silver rose on short covering reversing losses from the previous session after hawkish comments from Fed officials.

• US headline inflation slowed to 0.4% MoM in October from 0.6% in September, but came in above market forecasts of 0.3%.

• Traders raised the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to 100%, as per CME's FedWatch tool.

• India’s silver ETFs inflows in October rose to 3,092.22 crore from 1,974.32 crore in September.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled higher by 1.09% at 8184, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Iran's firm stance on retaining its enriched nuclear material has raised doubts over the prospects of negotiations with the United States, while continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with 37 ships targeted in October, have heightened supply security concerns. Additionally, Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced Russian oil refining capacity by around 30% since late October, further supporting prices. However, gains were limited by bearish US inventory data, with crude stocks rising by 9 million barrels in the week ended November 6, against expectations of a 1 million-barrel decline. Gasoline inventories increased marginally by 4000 barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels. US crude production also reached a record 14.003 million barrels per day, adding to supply concerns. In contrast, earlier EIA data showed crude inventories declining by 865000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels, alongside decreases of 222000 barrels in gasoline stocks and 3.6 million barrels in distillate inventories, supported by higher refinery utilization of 94.5%. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive time to 400000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day projected at the beginning of the year, while raising its 2027 outlook on expectations of recovering demand and inventory rebuilding. Meanwhile, Russian crude production remained below year-ago levels despite a modest monthly recovery, as Ukrainian attacks continued disrupting refinery operations. Overall, geopolitical supply risks are providing support, while rising US inventories, record production and weaker demand expectations are limiting the upside. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 8.37% to settle at 9004 contracts while prices increased by Rs 88. Immediate support is placed at 8040, followed by 7900, while resistance is seen at 8330. A sustained move above 8330 could push prices towards 8475, whereas a break below 8040 may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 7900-8475.

• Crude oil prices rose after Iran's security chief said Tehran would not allow even a single particle of enriched nuclear material to leave the country.

• Concerns about tanker attacks persist in the Strait of Hormuz

• US crude oil inventories rose by 9.0 million barrels, defying market forecasts for a 1 million-barrel decline - API

• 7 million barrels of crude were released from SPR to support commercial inventories, bringing total SPR stocks down to 279.5 million barrels.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled lower by 0.94% at 305.9, despite supportive fundamentals from colder weather forecasts, record LNG export flows and declining domestic production. Forecasts indicated colder conditions across parts of the central and eastern United States through November 20, raising expectations of stronger heating demand. Average gas flows to nine major US LNG export terminals reached a record 19.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, surpassing October's previous record of 18.4 bcfd. Meanwhile, Lower 48 production averaged 112.1 bcfd in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October. However, inventory levels remained comfortable, with natural gas storage estimated at 2.1% above the five-year average for the week ended November 6. Earlier EIA data showed a storage injection of 77 billion cubic feet for the week ended October 30, below market expectations of 81 bcf, taking total inventories to 3.801 trillion cubic feet, which were 2.8% below year-ago levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. The EIA projected US dry gas production to increase to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while consumption is expected to reach 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to rise to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. However, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and expectations that supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects the US market to remain comfortably supplied in the medium term, limiting price recovery prospects. Overall, near-term weather and export demand are supportive, but rising production and comfortable inventories continue to weigh on sentiment. Technically, natural gas is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 4.79% to settle at 35482 contracts while prices fell by Rs 2.9. Immediate support is placed at 300.50, followed by 295.50, while resistance is seen at 315.00. A sustained move above 315.00 could push prices towards 324.50, whereas a break below 300.50 may extend the downside pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 295.50-324.50.

• Natural gas prices climbed as colder weather outlook, record LNG export flows, and declining production supported the market.

• Forecasts shifted cooler across parts of the central and eastern US through November 20, raising expectations for stronger heating demand.

• Robust LNG export activity also provided support, with average gas flows to the nine major export terminals reaching a record 19.3 bcfd so far in November.

• Lower 48 production averaged 112.1 bcfd so far this month, down from 113.4 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper settled higher by 0.34% at 1341.85, supported by tightening mine supply and declining inventories, although concerns over weaker Chinese demand and a global refined copper surplus limited gains. Chilean copper production faced significant disruptions, with September output at Escondida falling 21% year-on-year to 93,800 tonnes, while Codelco production declined 14.1% to 99,300 tonnes and Collahuasi output dropped 19.2% to 30,700 tonnes. Chile's copper commission Cochilco sharply lowered its 2026 production forecast and raised its average copper price projections to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, citing constrained mine supply. In China, October copper concentrate imports declined 11% year-on-year to 2.17 million tonnes, while January-October imports fell 3.8%. SHFE-monitored copper inventories dropped more than 75% over the past six months to 33,848 tonnes, while the Yangshan premium climbed to a record $230 per tonne, indicating strong demand for imported metal. Additionally, LME copper's cash-to-three-month spread remained in significant backwardation at $175.39 per tonne, reflecting tight nearby availability. However, bearish signals emerged from the global refined copper market, which recorded a surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, taking the January-August surplus to 218,000 tonnes compared with 158,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Speculative positioning also weakened, with bullish positions declining 2.4% and bearish positions increasing 17.9%. Citi lowered its three-month copper price forecast to $13,300 per tonne from $14,500, citing weaker AI-related sentiment and potential risk-off behaviour. Overall, supply disruptions and declining exchange inventories remain supportive, while surplus conditions and demand uncertainty pose downside risks. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.44% to settle at 7241 contracts while prices increased by Rs 4.55. Immediate support is placed at 1337.00, followed by 1332.50, while resistance is seen at 1348.00. A sustained move above 1348.00 could push prices towards 1354.50, whereas a break below 1337.00 may invite further selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1332.50-1354.50.

• Copper gained as Chile's copper commission Cochilco said that production at Escondida, fell 21% year-on-year in September.

• Copper output at Chile state-owned miner Codelco fell 14.1% to 99,300 tons.

• Citi lowers 0 – 3 month copper price forecast to $13,300/t from $14,500/t

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 0.27% at 411.45, supported by tightening global mine supply and concerns over potential disruptions at major smelters. Operational issues at Korea Zinc, Glencore's Kazzinc and YoungPoong's Seokpo smelter have raised concerns over refined metal availability, while uncertainty surrounding the future of Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands has added to supply worries in Western markets. China's refined zinc production declined 3.5% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year in October 2026, with January-October output falling 1.5% year-on-year. However, production is expected to recover by 4.6% month-on-month in November due to maintenance recoveries and production ramp-ups at several smelters. SHFE-monitored zinc inventories also declined 6.3%, indicating tightening domestic availability. Meanwhile, Mitsui Kinzoku plans to increase refined zinc production by 32% year-on-year to 117,700 tonnes in the second half of its 2026 fiscal year. The global refined zinc market recorded a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August compared with a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, although the market remained in a surplus of 96,000 tonnes during the first eight months of the year. Looking ahead, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group expects the global refined zinc market to shift to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027 from a projected deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026, as refined production rises 2% and mine production increases 3%. Global zinc demand is expected to grow 1.2% in 2027, supported by consumption in Europe, India and the United States, while China's demand growth is forecast to moderate to 0.3% due to weakness in the real estate sector. China's refined zinc imports also declined 79% year-on-year during January-June, highlighting improving domestic self-sufficiency. Technically, zinc is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.87% to settle at 1489 contracts while prices increased by Rs 1.10. Immediate support is placed at 410.00, followed by 408.50, while resistance is seen at 413.50. A sustained move above 413.50 could push prices towards 415.50, whereas a break below 410.00 may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 408.50-415.50.

• Zinc gained amid tightening global mine supply and concerns over disruptions at major smelters.

• Zinc's bullish positions declined by 4.8% during the week, while bearish positions declined by 6.1% - LME COTR

• Mitsui Kinzoku, plans to produce 117,700 metric tons of refined zinc in the second half of the 2026 fiscal year, up 32% from a year ago.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 1.67% at 330.85, supported by tightening global inventories and supply disruptions in the Middle East, which pushed the LME cash-to-three-month backwardation to $129 per tonne, its highest level in 30 years. Available aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses declined 51% since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, falling to 207,525 tonnes, their lowest since March 2025. Meanwhile, SHFE-monitored aluminium inventories dropped 31% last week to 132,605 tonnes, their lowest since December. Global aluminium inventories declined to just 44 days of consumption, reflecting tight near-term availability. China's aluminium exports and aluminium products increased 18% to 5.9 million tonnes during January-October, while primary aluminium production reached 11.84 million tonnes in the third quarter, up 2.2% year-on-year. Production during the first nine months increased 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, indicating strong output despite China's capacity restrictions. However, global primary aluminium production declined to 6.014 million tonnes in September from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier. Supply concerns were partly eased by Emirates Global Aluminium restarting 50% of capacity at its Al Taweelah smelter, with full production expected by the first quarter of 2027. Nevertheless, Middle Eastern smelter restarts could remain slower than previously anticipated due to high alumina import costs and challenging operating economics. Meanwhile, the market faces potential longer-term surplus risks in 2027 as supply gradually recovers. Speculative positioning remained bullish, with long positions increasing 5.1%, although short positions also surged 25.3%. Overall, declining exchange inventories and geopolitical supply disruptions continue to support prices, while strong Chinese production and improving supply prospects could limit further gains. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 4.8% to settle at 3511 contracts while prices increased by Rs 5.45. Immediate support is placed at 328.00, followed by 324.50, while resistance is seen at 332.50. A sustained move above 332.50 could push prices towards 334.00, whereas a break below 328.00 may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.50-334.00.

• Aluminium gains as declining aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses boosted the premium.

• The near-term cash aluminium contract over the LME's three-month benchmark to $129 a ton, its highest in 30 years.

• Aluminium's bullish positions increased by 5.1% during the week, while bearish positions surged by 25.3% - LME COTR

Turmeric

Turmeric settled higher by 1.6% at 28868, supported by tight pipeline supplies, lower acreage estimates for the upcoming season and concerns over adverse weather conditions in major producing regions. Arrivals declined to around 6,000 bags, nearly 2,000 bags lower than the previous session, strengthening bullish sentiment. Persistently dry weather in Maharashtra raised concerns over crop development and yield prospects, while forecast cyclonic rainfall across South India added uncertainty regarding crop conditions. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, eased some production concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, improving crop prospects. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, indicating tighter overall availability. Meanwhile, overseas inquiries from Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia slowed as buyers awaited price stability following the sharp rally. European Union restrictions on maximum residue levels have increased demand for IPM-certified turmeric, supporting premium-quality stocks, although non-compliant lots faced discounts. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026 compared with 17,136 tonnes last year. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Exports to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil recorded strong growth, while shipments to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined significantly. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window and improving crop conditions in some regions could limit further upside. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at Rs 27,144.85, gaining 8.78%. Overall, tight carry-forward stocks and weather uncertainty remain supportive, while improved rainfall, cautious export demand and farmer selling could restrict gains. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 0.08% to settle at 19,205 contracts while prices gained Rs 454. Immediate support is placed at 28,530, followed by 28,200, while resistance is seen at 29,090. A sustained move above 29,090 could push prices towards 29,310, whereas a break below 28,530 may invite profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 28200-29310.

• Turmeric prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

• Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

• Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 27144.85 Rupees gained by 8.78 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled higher by 0.37% at 28565, supported by rising export demand, tightening domestic and global supplies, and concerns over weather conditions in key producing regions. The El Niño phenomenon has raised concerns about irregular rainfall and limited water availability, potentially affecting sowing and crop yields in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Gujarat has declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts, highlighting concerns over agricultural conditions. Limited Syrian supplies have strengthened demand for Indian cumin, although increasing cultivation in China and improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria could create competition for Indian exporters. Domestic production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. However, expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan, along with aggressive farmer selling to generate liquidity for the upcoming season, could restrict further gains. Spot trading at Unjha remained subdued as processors and millers limited purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated prices. India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, while cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes a year earlier. Exports to the USA, Singapore and Mexico increased, whereas shipments to the UAE and Bangladesh registered significant declines. On an annual basis, exports during September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs 27,181.10, gaining 0.01%. Overall, lower domestic production estimates and weather-related uncertainty remain supportive, while subdued spot demand, farmer selling and improving overseas crop prospects may limit the upside. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 20.91% to settle at 3030 contracts while prices increased by Rs 105. Immediate support is placed at 28,170, followed by 27,780, while resistance is seen at 28,980. A sustained move above 28,980 could push prices towards 29,400, whereas a break below 28,170 may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 27780-29400.

• Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

• Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

• With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 27181.1 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views