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Higher-than-expected GRM boosts 2Q performance

* EBITDA came in 51% above our estimate at INR145.8b (up 248% YoY).

* IOCL’s reported GRM came in 66% above our estimate at USD10.7/bbl; refining inventory gains stood at USD1.8/bbl during the quarter.

* The marketing margin stood at INR6.2/lit, 19% above estimates.

* LPG under-recovery of INR21.3b was booked in 2Q (INR37.1b in 1Q)

* Marketing and refining throughput came in line with our estimate.

* The petchem segment posted an EBIT of INR1.7b (vs. INR10m loss in 1Q).

* IOCL’s reported PAT came in 146% above our estimate at INR76.1b.

* Other income came in above our estimate, while interest stood below.

* In 1HFY26, the company generated a CFO of INR312.7b (INR25.2b in 1HFY25). IOCL incurred standalone capex of INR147.2b. As of 30th Sep’25, IOCL’s standalone CWIP stood at INR768.6b (INR734.5b of 31st Mar’25). Net debt stood at INR1.28t (vs INR1.34t as on 31 Mar’25).

* As of 30th Sep’25, IOCL had a cumulative negative net buffer of INR257.7b due to the under-recovery on LPG cylinders (INR236.4b in Jun’25).

* The MoP&NG, through letters dated 3rd/24th Oct’25, approved a compensation of INR144.9b to the company for under-recoveries on the sale of domestic LPG up to 31st Mar’25, and those expected up to 31st Mar’26. The amount will be released in 12 equal monthly installments, with accruals recognized monthly starting Nov’25.

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