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Margin beat both in India and Europe

* CIE consol PAT at INR2.1b came in ahead of our estimate of INR2b, primarily led by better-than-expected performance in both India and Europe.

* 3QCY25 consol. revenue grew ~11% YoY to INR23.7b (est. INR23.2b). The Europe business posted 18% YoY growth, driven by 7% revenue growth in Euro terms over a low base and 11% benefit from currency depreciation. The India business grew 8% YoY, led by a gradual pick-up in auto demand. 9MCY25 revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT grew ~2%/ declined 2%/declined 3% YoY.

* EBITDA stood at ~INR3.6b (est. INR3.3b), growing ~8% YoY. EBITDA margin came in at 15% (est. 14.1%), down 50bp YoY, albeit rising 80bp QoQ. The YoY decline was primarily due to higher energy tariffs in India.

* Adj. PAT stood at INR2.1b (est. INR2b), growing ~10% YoY.

* India business performance: Revenue grew 8% YoY to INR15.7b (est. INR15.6b). EBITDA margin marginally improved QoQ to 15.9% (est. 15.1%, up 30bp YoY). EBT grew 7% YoY to INR2.1b.

* EU business performance: Revenue jumped 18% YoY to ~INR8b (est. ~INR7.6b aided by currency gains, while real sales growth in euro terms stood at 7% YoY. EBITDA margins beat estimates, recording 13.2% (est of 12.1%). However, margin contracted 200bp YoY. PBT grew ~13% YoY for the Europe business.

* 9MCY25 summary - Consolidated revenue grew 2% YoY to INR68b, with EBITDA down 2% YoY to INR10.3b (margin 14.7%), and PAT down 3% YoY to INR6.2b. India maintained steady growth (+6% YoY), while Europe declined 3% YoY due to weak forging demand and restructuring impact.

Key highlights from the presentation:

* India light vehicle forecast: IHS estimates production growth at 5.0% in CY25, 5.4% in CY26, and a CAGR of 4.9% over CY25-30.

* India MHCVs forecast: IHS expects production to rise 2.1% in CY25 and 4.7% in CY26, translating to a CAGR of 1.4% over CY25-30.

* India tractor forecast: CRISIL expects the domestic tractor industry to grow 10-12% in FY26 and post a CAGR of 5-7% over FY25-30.

* India 2W forecast: CRISIL expects 7-9% growth in the domestic 2W industry in FY26 and a similar 7-9% CAGR over FY25-30.

* EU (w/o Russia) light vehicles forecast ? IHS forecasts light vehicle production to decline 1.5% in CY25 and 1.3% in CY26, implying no growth over CY25-30.

* EU (w/o Russia) MHCV forecast ? IHS forecasts MHCV production to increase by 4.1% in CY25 and 9.1% in CY26, registering a CAGR of 2.1% over CY25-30.

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