Commodity Research- Daily Evening Track - 05 - March-2026 by Kotak Securities
Crude Surges as Iran War Disrupts Flows; Gold Holds Safe-Haven Bid, Silver Mixed Near $84
Spot Gold climbed to $5,160/Oz on Thursday, extending the previous session’s advance as investors tracked the intensifying west Asia conflict. Silver traded above $84 per ounce, fluctuating between gains and losses as a firmer U.S. dollar offset safe-haven demand. U.S. and Israeli forces striking targets across Iran, while Tehran retaliated with missile attacks on neighboring states, including key energy infrastructure. Trump supported the military campaign, and U.S. officials reported that an Iranian warship was sunk in international waters. Tehran rejected claims that its intelligence ministry had sought negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed that a global 15% tariff will take effect this week, though the measure may be reviewed within five months. Rising oil and gas prices have revived inflation concerns, prompting markets to push back expectations for easing by the Fed, with the first rate cut now seen in September. With geopolitical risk elevated and energydriven inflation pressures resurfacing, bullion is likely to remain supported, though near-term gains may face resistance if the dollar continues to strengthen.
WTI crude oil futures climbed more than 3% toward $78 per barrel on Thursday, approaching their highest level since late January, as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. China has reportedly instructed its major refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports, tightening regional product availability at a time when geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf are intensifying. Market anxiety has also been fueled by disruptions to tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global crude shipments. Prices later eased below $76 following signals from Iranian officials indicating openness to abandoning its nuclear program if a credible alternative arrangement with the US emerges. Attempts to stabilize sentiment—including proposals for vessel insurance and naval escorts— have so far failed to ease investor caution, as markets remain sensitive to any sign of prolonged regional conflict. On the supply side, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed US crude inventories rising by 3.5 million barrels to 439.3 million, offering some near-term buffer against supply shocks
Base metals traded on a softer note, with nickel emerging as the top loser, while copper also declined, hovering around $12,960/ton. The red metal came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened amid rising geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran. Markets remain cautious about further escalation, particularly as tensions threaten key trade routes in the Middle East. Meanwhile, in China, policymakers set a relatively modest GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, reflecting ongoing concerns around deflationary pressures and the impact of higher US tariffs. The country’s 15th Five-Year Plan emphasized greater investment in innovation, hightech industries, and scientific research alongside efforts to boost domestic consumption. Despite the near-term pressure, copper’s downside may remain limited as tight mine supply and disruptions at major operations continue to constrain global production growth.
US natural gas futures rebounded toward $3 per MMBtu on Thursday after the prior session’s sharp decline, as markets reassessed supply risks tied to the escalating US– Iran–Israel Middle East conflict 2026. Prices had dropped 4.5% earlier on speculation that Iran might consider negotiations, though officials later denied the reports. With the conflict entering its sixth day and the Strait of Hormuz closed while Qatar’s major LNG facility remains offline, supply risks have intensified. Coupled with expected domestic storage declines, the backdrop keeps the near-term fundamental outlook constructive for gas prices.
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