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Bullion – Spot gold surged to a fresh record of $3,791.1/oz on Tuesday, while silver advanced to $44.4, its highest since May 2011, driven by mounting expectations of more U.S. rate cuts in 2025 and news that China is positioning itself as a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves. Prices saw a modest pullback following remarks from Fed Chair Powell, who noted downside risks to employment prompted last week’s rate cut, shifting policy to a more neutral stance. Powell accepted inflation remains elevated but suggested tariff-related pressures could be short-lived, echoing a data-dependent approach. NATO’s warning to Russia over airspace violations, strong ETF inflows and concerns over Fed independence further boosted gold. Today, Gold fell below $3,760 as investors booked profits after record high, while markets assess Powell’s cautious stance and await US inflation and jobs data.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil rebounded sharply to $63.9/bbl on Tuesday after four consecutive sessions of declines, supported by delays in restarting oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and renewed geopolitical tensions. A deal to resume Kurdistan’s oil exports, which could bring around 230,000 bpd to the global market via Turkey, stalled as two producing companies sought guarantees for debt repayment. Additionally, in a speech at the UN General Assembly, Trump criticized NATO for continuing energy purchases from Russia and singled out China and India as the primary funders of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Today, oil prices are holding gains as traders await the EIA inventory report, after API data estimated a 3.8 million barrel drop in US crude stocks for the week ending Sept 19. Also, markets eye Trump’s meet with leaders from Ukraine, Argentina and EU later this week in New York as he stated he would pressure the EU to immediately stop buying Russian gas and LNG.

Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures attempted a recovery and closed above $2.85/mmBtu buoyed by forecasts for warmer weather forecast for early October and positioning ahead of contract expiry.

Base metals- Base metals closed Tuesday's session on a mixed note, with copper on the LME edging up to $9,974/ton, while on the MCX, all metals ended higher. The market remains alert to potential supply shocks as Freeport’s mine in Indonesia, stays offline following a mudflow incident. While prolonged disruptions could quickly tighten global supply, record first-half Chinese output continues to pressure margins at smelters that account for over half of global production. Aluminium also held steady, with global output averaging 202,500 tons a day in August, according to the IAI. Metals are expected to stay elevated amid ongoing global supply concerns, while Fed Chair Powell highlighted a “challenging” environment of persistent inflation and weak job growth, leaving room for potential policy easing.

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