Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 09 October 2025 by Kotak Securities Ltd
Bullion – Spot gold surged to a new record high of $4,059.30/Oz, while silver advanced to fresh 14-year highs above $49.55 on Wednesday, extending a record-breaking rally driven by escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainty alongside expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts. Gold’s rally, meanwhile, was fueled by safe haven flows amid a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, delaying key economic data releases. Moreover, heightened concerns over fiscal strain and employment reinforced the dovish tone of the latest FOMC minutes, suggesting continued rate cuts amid labor market fragility and persistent inflation pressures. Today, Gold eased to $4,020 per ounce, pausing its record-breaking rally amid profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions after President Trump announced a preliminary Israel-Hamas peace deal confirmed by all parties. Traders now await Fed Chair Powell’s remarks for further monetary policy direction.
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil briefly rose to a one-week high of $62.9/bbl, supported by a mixed U.S. inventory report and fading prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Latest EIA report showed U.S. crude stocksrose by 3.7 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels in the week ending October 3. However, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for NYMEX crude futures, declined by 760,000 barrels to 22.7 million barrels. Refined product stocks also pointed to strong demand, with gasoline inventories down by 1.6 million barrels and distillate stockpiles falling by 2 million barrels. Further, a top Russian diplomat said the impetus to secure a peace deal with Ukraine, following the Trump-Putin summit in August, had largely dissipated. Today, crude prices slipped below $62/bbl as geopolitical risk premium eased as Israel and Hamas agreed to a pause in fighting and a hostage-for-prisoners exchange.
Natural Gas – NYMEX natural gas futures fell 5% to $3.3 per mmBtu, largely erasing gains made earlier this week as mixed weather projections for October weighed on near term demand prospects.
Base metals – Base metals ended Wednesday on a mixed note, with aluminium the sole gainer on the LME, while copper slipped nearly 1% to $10,669/ton, though MCX copper edged closer to the ?1,000/kg mark. The red metal has been buoyed after Teck Resources cut its annual production forecast for the mine in Chile to 170,000–190,000 tons from 210,000–230,000 tons, citing persistent operational issues. The downgrade adds to a string of global supply disruptions spanning Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC, which have pushed copper prices up more this year despite sluggish demand. Copper prices are likely to trade higher following a major producer’s output cut though upside may be capped as the dollar nears the 99 level and the ICSG projects a surplus in the global refined copper market for 2025.
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