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Gold

Gold prices settled lower by 0.24% at 134,196, pressured by profit-taking and short-term long liquidation, despite a broadly supportive macro backdrop. The decline came even as U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations of monetary easing. November CPI cooled unexpectedly, with headline inflation easing to 2.7% and core CPI to 2.6%, strengthening the case for a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance. Geopolitical risks also remain elevated after reports that Venezuela has ordered naval escorts for oil shipments following U.S. actions targeting its oil sector, raising confrontation concerns. Political signals added to focus as President Donald Trump indicated his next Fed Chair would strongly favor lower interest rates. Markets currently price in around a 25% probability of a January rate cut, with near certainty by April. Physical market dynamics were mixed. In India, gold discounts widened to over a one-month high, up to $37 per ounce, as record prices dampened wedding-season demand. In China, discounts deepened to as much as $64 per ounce, the highest in over five years.  From a technical perspective, gold is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.03% to 15,036 while prices fell 325. Immediate support is seen at 133,710, with further downside possible toward 133,230. On the upside, resistance is placed at 134,515, and a breakout above this level could open the way toward 134,840.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 133230-134840.

* Gold eased pressured by profit-taking and short-term long liquidation despite expectations of further Fed rate cuts.

* Swiss gold exports drop in November as shipments to India plunge

* Gold discounts in India widened to a more than one-month high as record bullion prices dampened retail demand.

Silver

Silver prices surged sharply, settling up 2.39% at 208,439, driven by tightening inventories, strong industrial demand and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list. Robust ETF inflows and sustained retail buying added further momentum, reinforcing expectations of a structural supply deficit in the coming years. Industrial consumption from solar panels, electric vehicles and data-center infrastructure continues to expand, while global mine production and recycling have remained largely stagnant for over a decade. As a result, the silver market is heading toward a fifth consecutive annual deficit, forecast at around 125 million ounces in 2025, taking cumulative shortages since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Supply-side stress was evident in rising lease rates and borrowing costs for physical silver in London, reflecting genuine delivery tightness. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls from 2026 has triggered front-loaded buying, while domestic stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are at the weakest since 2015, following record Chinese exports of over 660 tonnes in October. Although LBMA data showed a 3.5% monthly rise in London silver vault holdings, liquidity remains tight and borrowing costs elevated. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.41% to 12,112 as prices rose 4,874. Immediate support is placed at 204,525, with a further downside risk toward 200,615. On the upside, resistance is seen at 210,475, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 212,515.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 200615-212515.

* Silver prices gained on tightening inventories, strong industrial demand and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list.

* Investor demand for silver has surged this year as falling interest rates, rising fiscal concerns and broader economic uncertainty.

* Additional support has come from robust industrial demand, particularly from the rapidly expanding solar, electric vehicle and data center sectors.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged marginally lower, settling down 0.18% at 5,105, as markets weighed geopolitical supply risks against rising concerns of a global supply overhang. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict kept a risk premium intact, although optimism around a potential U.S.-led Ukraine peace initiative eased some immediate supply fears. Venezuela, which accounts for about 1% of global output, authorised two unsanctioned cargoes to China, highlighting continued flow despite sanctions. On the supply front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 crude production forecast to a record 13.61 million bpd, reinforcing expectations of excess supply. This aligns with the International Energy Agency’s view that the global oil market will remain in surplus, although its latest report trimmed the projected 2026 surplus to 3.84 million bpd on stronger demand growth and slightly lower supply expectations due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. Inventory data was mixed, with U.S. crude stocks falling by 1.27 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply, signalling weak near-term demand. OPEC+ output increased modestly in November, with the group maintaining its outlook for steady demand growth next year. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.48% to 22,183 as prices slipped 9. Crude oil finds support at 5,049, with a break below opening downside toward 4,994. Resistance is placed at 5,136, and a move above this could push prices toward 5,168.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4994-5168.

* Crude oil prices dropped amid a potential supply glut and prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

* Venezuela oil export operations continue despite US sanctions

* U.S. oil production is expected to hit a larger record this year than previously expected – EIA

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher, settling up 0.20% at 356.9, as the market balanced near-record production against forecasts for milder weather and softer demand over the coming weeks. Average output in the Lower 48 states remained at a record 109.6 bcfd in December, matching November’s peak levels. Weather forecasts indicate temperatures staying mostly warmer than normal through early January, reducing heating demand. Reflecting this, LSEG estimates average gas demand, including exports, will fall sharply from 144.6 bcfd this week to around 127.5 bcfd over the next two weeks, lower than previous projections. Despite softer domestic demand expectations, LNG exports continued to provide support, with average flows to major U.S. LNG terminals rising to 18.5 bcfd this month, exceeding November’s record. On the storage front, U.S. utilities withdrew 167 bcf during the week ended December 12, leaving total stocks at 3,579 bcf. Inventories are now 1.7% below last year’s levels but remain 0.9% above the five-year average, suggesting a broadly comfortable supply position. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2025, underlining longer-term demand growth despite near-term weather softness. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 22.95% to 12,429 as prices rose marginally. Immediate support is seen at 348.8, with further downside toward 340.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at 361.9, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 367.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 340.8-367.

* Natural gas eased on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand and near-record output.

* U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 – EIA

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states held at 109.6 bcfd so far in December, the same as November's monthly record high.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling up 0.28% at 1,114.85, supported by strong Chinese production data and persistent concerns over future supply tightness. China’s refined copper output rose sharply in November, up 11.9% year-on-year to 1.24 million tons and 2.7% higher than October, reversing a two-month decline. Despite improved production, gains were capped by a firmer U.S. dollar and ongoing caution around near-term demand, as China’s copper imports declined for a second straight month due to elevated prices. Fundamentals remain constructive over the medium to long term. Mine supply constraints continue to underpin prices, with analysts highlighting structural challenges to new supply. LME copper has already gained around 33% this year, hitting successive record highs on expectations of supply deficits. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper market deficit of 51,000 tons in September, compared with a surplus in August, while the cumulative surplus for the first nine months narrowed sharply year-on-year. Expectations of tighter refined supply were further reinforced after China’s major smelters agreed to cut output by 10% in 2026. On the trade front, copper flows shifted toward the U.S. to capitalize on Comex-LME arbitrage, pushing Comex warehouse stocks to record highs. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 7.94% to 6,455 as prices rose 3.15. Immediate support is seen at 1,110.1, with further downside at 1,105.3. Resistance stands at 1,119.6, and a break above could test 1,124.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1105.3-1124.3.

* Copper prices dropped as China's refined copper production in November jumped 11.9% year-on-year to 1.24 million tons.

* However downside seen limited amid mine supply constraints, while a firmer dollar capped gains.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 7.2% from a week before on December 12.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped marginally, settling down 0.35% at 301.4, pressured by stronger Chinese supply and renewed concerns over domestic demand. China’s zinc output rose 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons in November, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, adding to near-term supply comfort. Sentiment was further weighed down by weak Chinese macro indicators, with factory output and retail sales growth slowing in November, alongside a continued deterioration in property investment and sales. However, downside remained limited on emerging supply-side constraints. Reports indicate that a zinc mine in central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, reducing available production days. In addition, a major mine in southwest China is set to undergo maintenance in December after meeting its annual target, which is expected to cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 metric tons in metal content. Reflecting tightening spot availability, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 5.7% week-on-week. Globally, the zinc market picture is mixed but improving. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the refined zinc surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, while inventories outside China have dropped to extremely low levels. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.79% to 2,123 as prices fell 1.05. Immediate support is seen at 299.7, with further downside at 298.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at 303.7, and a break above could lead prices toward 306.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 298.1-306.1.

* Zinc dropped as China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

* Pressure also seen dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* China's factory output and retail sales growth slowed further in November, weighed by weak domestic demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices ended higher, settling up 0.6% at 283.9, supported by confirmation that South32 will place the Mozal smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance by March after failing to secure a power agreement. The shutdown is expected to dent global aluminium supplies in 2026, reinforcing concerns over an already tight supply outlook. Additional support came from falling inventories at major Japanese ports, where stocks declined 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 metric tons by the end of November, and from sharply higher premium offers sought by global producers for January–March shipments. However, gains were capped by renewed demand concerns linked to weak economic data from China. Although China’s aluminium production rose 2.5% year-on-year to 3.79 million tons in November, imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell 14% on the year, reflecting subdued consumption. Inventory data also showed a modest 0.4% rise in Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks, adding to near-term pressure. Globally, output growth remained moderate, while disruptions at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter provided some offsetting supply-side support. Outlooks remain mixed, with ANZ raising its short-term price target on improving manufacturing and construction demand, while Goldman Sachs expects softer prices longer term on surplus risks. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 8.61% to 1,996 as prices rose 1.7. Immediate support is seen at 282.7, with downside toward 281.4, while resistance is placed at 284.7. A move above this could test 285.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 281.4-285.4.

* Aluminium prices gained after South32 said it would shut its Mozal smelter in March.

* China's import of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell 14% in November from a year ago.

* China's domestic output of aluminium remained strong in November, up 2.5% year on year at 3.79 million ton.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined sharply by 2.15%, settling at 15,668, as markets reacted to expectations of higher acreage following favourable monsoon conditions during the current sowing season. Improved planting prospects have weighed on near-term sentiment. However, the downside remains limited as arrivals continue to stay below normal and both domestic and international demand remains firm. It is reported that farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, providing a supportive base ahead of fresh crop arrivals. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at around 3.02 lakh hectares, up nearly 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output at the all-India level is estimated at about 90 lakh bags, higher than last season, though lower carry-forward stocks cap the overall increase in availability. Weather-related issues, including unseasonal rains and localized disease pressure, have impacted yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, with yield losses of 15–20% reported in some pockets. Export demand remains supportive, with shipments during April–September 2025 rising over 4% year-on-year, led by Europe and the U.S. Spot prices in Nizamabad eased marginally, reflecting cautious trade activity. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest edging up 0.07% to 13,605 while prices fell 344. Immediate support is seen at 15,374, with further downside toward 15,082. Resistance is placed at 16,064, and a break above could open the way toward 16,462.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15082-16462.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and International demand.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15396.15 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices inched marginally higher, settling up 0.07% at 21,150, as weather disruptions and delayed sowing continued to lend underlying support. In Gujarat, the key producing state, cumin sowing stood at 3.24 lakh hectares as of December 15, down nearly 14% year-on-year, with uneven rainfall delaying field preparation. At Unjha, arrivals remained very low and premium-quality cumin continued to command higher prices, reflecting tight near-term availability. However, upside remained capped by comfortable overall supplies and subdued export demand. Traders noted that overseas buying remains price-sensitive, with most current export requirements being met from existing stocks. Although export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement, broader market confidence remains weak. The GST Council’s decision to cut GST to 5% has provided some support by improving prospects for FMCG exports and domestic consumption. Farmers are still estimated to hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with a large carry-forward stock likely at the end of the season. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower due to reduced sowing, with total output seen at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year. Despite geopolitical disruptions in other producing countries, India’s export volumes remain under pressure. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest unchanged at 3,885 as prices rose 15. Immediate support is seen at 20,990, with further downside at 20,830. Resistance is placed at 21,280, and a move above could test 21,410.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20830-21410.

* Jeera ended with small gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20869.15 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

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