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Bullion – Spot gold surged to a new record high of $3,970/oz on Monday, while silver climbed above $48.70, its fresh high since April 2011, as safe-haven demand strengthened amid prolong U.S. government shutdown and political crisis in France. Moreover, Japan’s pro-stimulus leader Sanae Takaichi’s election victory cut expectations of near-term BOJ rate hikes also boost gold. Robust central bank purchases and rising gold ETF holdings, grown to 587.8 tons this year, also supported the rally. Silver benefited from tightening industrial supply and prospects of being added to the U.S. critical minerals list, with the official forecast of a fifth straight annual deficit in 2025. Today, Gold jumps to fresh highs of over $3,975 on reports of China buying gold for 11th consecutive month and market priced in a 95% chances of a Fed rate cut in October meeting. Market focus on Fed speakers and Gaza ceasefire deal.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil began the week on a positive note, climbing above $62/bbl after a sharp 7% decline last week, supported by OPEC+’s decision to implement a more modest production increase of 137,000 bpd for November, easing market fears of a larger supply hike and offering relief amid concerns of a looming supply glut. Additionally, Russia’s Kirishi refinery, halted operations at its CDU-6 unit, which accounts for 40% of its output, following a Ukrainian drone strike. Repairs are expected to take about a month. However, crude prices later pulled back from session highs due to signs of softer market conditions and a stronger U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco announced it will maintain the price of its flagship Arab Light crude at a $2.20/bbl premium to the regional benchmark for next month, contrary to a Bloomberg survey that had forecast a 30-cent increase. Today, WTI crude is trading near $62/bbl as the market weighs ongoing supplyside risks against the potential for a market surplus.

Natural Gas – NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1% yesterday buoyed by colder weather projections for mid-October and uptick in LNG export flows though sharp upside was capped by rising US output.

Base metals – Base metals opened the week on a mixed note, with copper inching higher to $10,727/ton on the LME and crossing ?1,000/kg on the MCX for the first time in 16 months. The metal’s strength continues to stem from ongoing supply disruptions, including a fatal at Grasberg mine in Indonesia and a 9.9% y-o-y drop in Chile’s output following an accident at Codelco’s flagship mine. Although a stronger U.S. dollar has limited further upside, copper might remain supported by tightening supply and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve amid lingering uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown. Today metals are trading mixed, with copper holding firm on supply worries from top producers Chile and Indonesia.

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