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China's cottonseed imports surged to a record high of over 650,000 tons in 2022/23, primarily sourced from Australia and the U.S. Although imports are projected to decline in 2024/25, they are expected to stay strong, around 500,000 tons, to meet China's consumption forecast of 11.6 million tons. China's domestic production is concentrated in Xinjiang province, far from coastal crushing facilities, leading to reliance on imports when international prices are competitive. Australian cottonseed exports have rebounded since the 2020/21 drought, and U.S. shipments hit record levels in 2023/24 due to expanded market access. For 2024/25, China’s production is forecast at 11.1 million tons, supported by stable acreage and improved yields.

Key Highlight

* China's cottonseed imports reached a record 650,000 tons in 2022/23.

* Australian exports have rebounded post-drought, supporting higher shipments.

* U.S. exports to China reached a record 110,000 tons in 2023/24.

* China's cottonseed production forecast for 2024/25 is 11.1 million tons.

* China remains the largest global consumer of cottonseed at 11.6 million tons.

China's cottonseed market has seen significant activity, with imports reaching a historic high of over 650,000 tons in 2022/23. The primary suppliers, Australia and the United States, have played a crucial role in meeting China's increasing demand. While imports are expected to drop slightly in 2024/25 to around 500,000 tons, the need remains strong due to domestic consumption forecasts of 11.6 million tons. Prices for imported cottonseed have been competitive, particularly from Australia, whose exports rebounded following a drought in 2020/21 that limited shipments. By 2022/23, Australia was exporting at near-record levels, supported by favorable weather conditions and robust production. U.S. shipments have also reached new heights in 2023/24, with China expanding market access and sourcing nearly 110,000 tons.

China's domestic cottonseed production is concentrated in the Xinjiang province, which is far from the main coastal crushing facilities. This geographical gap creates a market for imports when international prices offer a cost-effective alternative. For 2024/25, China's production is forecast to increase to 11.1 million tons, driven by stable planting areas and a slight improvement in yield.

Apart from production dynamics, China's market access policies and trade relations, especially with Australia and the U.S., will continue to shape import trends. Although rising domestic production reduces the need for imports, external factors like weather conditions in supplier countries and international trade policies will influence the outlook.

Finally

China's cottonseed imports remain vital despite rising production, supported by favorable trade terms and competitive international prices, particularly from Australia and the U.S.

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