EUDR Adds Pressure as Coffee Prices Fall Sharply By Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
* Arabica futures plunge below $3.35/lb, lowest since January.
* Brazil’s harvest at 35% boosts 2025–26 supply in outlook.
* ICE coffee futures down over 21% in past seven weeks.
* EU Deforestation Regulation to raise compliance costs by Dec 2025.
* Illy CEO sees prices stabilizing near $2.50–$3/lb in 15 months.
Coffee futures have dropped sharply, with Arabica falling over 21% in the past seven weeks to $3.35/lb, driven by robust harvest progress in Brazil and improved rainfall. Robusta prices also fell 24.4%, easing cost pressures for roasters. However, the upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is a looming concern. The law, set for implementation by December 2025, mandates full traceability of coffee to deforestation-free land, increasing compliance burdens for exporters. While prices are currently soft, producers face mounting costs, which may eventually pressure margins and global retail prices despite short-term relief for consumers.
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