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China's economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking the slowest expansion since Q1 2023 due to persistent property sector issues, tepid domestic demand, and ongoing trade challenges. Despite a 4.8% growth rate for the first three quarters, hitting the lower end of the government's 5% target remains challenging. September saw mixed signals, with industrial production accelerating to 5.4% but new home prices posting the steepest decline since 2015. Retail sales rebounded to a 3.2% growth rate, while the jobless rate improved slightly to 5.1%. Fixed-asset investment saw gains, particularly in manufacturing, although property-related investments lagged.

Key Highlights

* Q3 GDP growth hit 4.6%, the weakest since Q1 2023.

* Industrial production climbed to a 5.4% growth rate in September.

* Retail sales reached a four-month high with 3.2% growth.

* New home prices fell by 5.7%, the steepest drop since 2015.

* Unemployment decreased to 5.1%, the lowest in three months.

China's economy grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024, the slowest pace since Q1 2023, as the country grappled with enduring property sector issues, tepid domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade tensions with Western nations. The quarterly performance was slightly above market expectations of 4.5% but still lagged behind the previous quarter's 4.7% growth. Cumulatively, the economy expanded by 4.8% over the first three quarters, nearing the lower end of the government's 5% growth target for the year.

Industrial output showed some resilience, with a 5.4% growth in September, the fastest in four months. The uptick was driven by strong performance in manufacturing and the electricity sector, which saw significant gains. Retail sales also rebounded, increasing by 3.2%, with notable strength in household appliances, automobiles, and personal care products.

However, challenges persisted in the property market, as new home prices declined by 5.7% in September, marking the steepest annual fall since 2015. The ongoing price drops, especially in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, highlighted the sector's prolonged downturn despite government efforts to stimulate demand through policy measures. Additionally, fixed-asset investment grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to September, primarily supported by the secondary sector, while the primary and tertiary sectors saw slower growth.

Finally

China's Q3 economic performance reveals a mixed outlook, with industrial and retail gains offset by housing sector struggles. Meeting the 5% growth target remains challenging amid persistent economic headwinds.

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