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Management refrains from giving any guidance on its order book

Wholesales grew 16% YoY and 9% QoQ

* In 4QFY24, wholesales (excluding China JV) grew 16% YoY (9% QoQ) to 110.2k units and were in line with our estimate. Jaguar wholesales jumped 39% YoY to 13.5k units, while LR wholesales rose 14% YoY to 96.7k units. Wholesales for RR/Defender/Discovery increased by 22%/5%/1% YoY to 58.3k units/28.7k units/9.7k units.

* In FY24, JLR wholesales (excluding China JV) grew 25% YoY to 401.3k units. Jaguar/LR FY24 wholesales grew 16%/26% YoY to 49.6k/351.7k units.

Retail volumes (including China JV) up 11% YoY/4.5% QoQ

* 4Q retails grew 11% YoY (+4.5% QoQ) to 114k units, while FY24 retails increased by 22% to 431.7k units. Retails also grew in the rest of the world (+16% YoY), North America (+21% YoY) and UK (+32% YoY), whereas they declined 9%/2% YoY in China/Europe.

* The management has refrained from giving any guidance on its order book and FCF, which they used to give earlier. As of 3QFY24 end, the order book stood at 148k units. JLR had in 3Q indicated that the order book might come down to about 110k units by 4Q end.

Valuation and view:

Owing to a strong performance across its key business segments, TTMT stock has significantly outperformed key indices, with a 48% CAGR in the last 36 months vs. a ~15% CAGR in the Nifty. However, we now expect growth to stabilize in the coming years, given moderate volume growth in underlying domestic PV/CV industries, persistent weakness in EU light vehicle industry (coupled with mix related challenges), and limited scope for margin expansion. We have recently downgraded the stock as we believe the current valuation of ~17x/14.5x FY25E/FY26E consol. EPS already prices in most of the positive factors. We maintain our Neutral rating with a TP INR970 (Mar’26E SOTP)

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