Buy Siemens Energy India Ltd for the Target Rs 4,100 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Beat on all counts
ENRIN’s 3QFY26 results were ahead of our estimates on all counts. Revenue growth was driven by strong growth in both power transmission and power generation segments. EBIT margin too recovered for power transmission segment and remained strong for power generation. Overall order inflows were up 3% YoY at INR34b, taking the total order book to INR193b (+16% YoY). Within this, the growth was largely led by 37% YoY growth in inflows for power transmission to INR24b, while power generation inflows were down 10% YoY at INR10b. Share of exports in total revenue has also increased 28.4% in 9MFY26 from 21.4% in 9MFY25. We expect ENRIN to continue to benefit from domestic and export-led opportunities across renewables, data centers and steam turbines. We revise our estimates by +7%/-1%/-1% for FY26/27/28 to bake in 9MFY26 performance. Retain BUY with a revised TP of INR4,100 (vs. INR3,950), implying 55x two-year forward earnings.
Beat across all metrics
ENRIN reported a healthy set of results with beat across revenue, EBITDA and PAT. Revenue at INR24.9b (+39% YoY) was 5% ahead of our estimates, driven by strong growth in both, power transmission and power generation segments. Gross margin expanded 340bp YoY to 45.1% vs. our expectation of 40.0%. Absolute EBITDA increased 72% YoY to INR5.9b, 24% above our estimates, while margin expanded 450bp YoY to 23.6%. Margin was higher than our estimate due to higher-than-expected gross margins. Strong revenue growth and margin expansion led to PAT increasing 68% YoY to INR4.4b (25% above our estimate). Implied order inflows stood at ~INR34b (+3% YoY). Order backlog stood at INR193b (+16% YoY). For 9MFY26, revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood at INR68b/ INR15.4b/INR11.8b, up 31%/49%/59% YoY, while margins expanded 270bp YoY to 22.7%.
Power transmission segment performance remains strong
Power transmission segment revenue in 3Q increased 42% YoY to INR13.9b, in line with our estimates, while EBIT margin of 21.6% was better than our expectations. Order backlog grew 28% YoY to INR135b, implying that order inflows grew 37% YoY to ~INR24b. Key order wins in power transmission during 9MFY26 included:
1) 420 kV GIS products and substation for one of the world’s largest solar parks
2) ±300MVAr STATCOM in Southern part of India
3) 400 kV GIS Substation in Western part of India. The company executed various orders during 3Q in domestic markets, including 220 kV GIS S/s for a data center in Maharashtra, 245 kV GIS for a large hydro power plant in Himachal Pradesh, 220 kV GIS S/s in Gujarat, and in export markets, including 220 kV GIS for export metro project in Africa and 240 MVA transformer to an energy company in USA. We expect the segment to sustain strong growth, supported by upcoming capacity expansion, strong inflows across domestic and export markets, continued investments in renewable energy evacuation and transmission infrastructure, and rising data center-driven grid demand. We bake in inflow CAGR of 13% over FY25-28 for power transmission segment. We expect revenue CAGR of 37% for this segment over FY25-28E and EBIT margin of 21.0%/22.0%/22.0% for FY26/27/28E.
Valuation and view
Siemens Energy is currently trading at 53.2x/43.6x P/E on FY27/28E EPS. We marginally revise our estimates by +7%/-1%/-1% for FY26/27/28E and maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR4,100 (earlier INR3,950), based on roll-forward to 55x Sep’28E earnings.
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