Buy Shanti Gold Ltd for the Target Rs. 350 by Choice Institutional Equities
Maintain growth guidance; manufacturing scale-up sets stage for accelerated growth:
SHANTIGOLD reported a strong performance in Q4FY26 aided by addition of new customers, scale-up in manufacturing capacity, higher gold prices and sustained 25% YoY volume growth. At present, the company operates at a manufacturing capacity of ~2,700 kg per annum and would add another 4,000 kg per annum capacity in Mumbai (June/July 2026) along with 1,200 kg per annum in Jaipur (September/October 2026). This expansion is in line with the strong demand from large organised jewellery retailers seeking reliable and scalable manufacturing partners. For FY27E, SHANTGOLD has guided for 60-70% value growth driven by (a) 30– 40% volume growth, which is in line with H2FY26 volume growth post-IPO gold purchase backed by new capacity addition, new product launches and expansion into untapped North region and (b) Forecast ~30% gold price inflation based on average FY26 gold price of INR 126,000/10gm.
Portfolio and geographic diversification drive risk-adjusted growth: Beyond robust revenue growth, SHANTIGOLD is enhancing the quality and sustainability of earnings through geographic diversification and tighter financial discipline. SHANTIGOLD is reducing reliance on the domestic market by scaling up exports, targeting increase in export contribution, from ~4% (FY26) to 10–20% in medium term. Simultaneously, it is broadening its domestic playbook by entering the Mangalsutra segment and introducing a mass-market Turkish jewellery range, expanding its addressable market and targeting higher-volume categories.
Valuation: We value the company using the DCF approach and assign a target price of INR 350, with a 53.5% upside and a ‘BUY’ rating. This equates to an
Q4FY26 Result: Strong operating performance
? Volume was up 25.1% YoY and down 13.5% QoQ to 463 Kgs
? Revenue was up 121.6% YoY and up 3.5% QoQ to INR 6,389 Mn
? EBITDA was up 217.3% YoY and up 53% QoQ to INR 670 Mn. EBITDA margin was up 306 bps YoY and up 329 bps QoQ to 10.2% (vs 6.9% in Q3FY26; 7.1% in Q4FY25). The increase was on account inventory gains (from IPO purchase), strategic gold purchases during the quarter and better product mix (bridal and CZ jewellery).
? PAT was up 465.3% YoY and up 86.3% QoQ to INR 519 Mn

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