Buy Saatvik Green Energy Ltd for the Target Rs 508 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
New orders, cell capacity startup key catalysts in FY27
We reiterate our BUY rating on Saatvik Green Energy (SGEL) with a TP of INR508 (23% upside). Our positive outlook is premised on the following key factors
* India solar capacity addition on track to exceed CEA target: India’s solar capacity additions remain firmly on track, with installed solar capacity reaching 168GW as of Aug’26 (~18GW of additions in Apr-Aug’26), positioning India well to surpass CEA’s FY27-end target of 176GW.
* New order momentum in 2QFY27 takes order book to new high: SGEL’s order book has increased from INR82b as of 18th Aug’26 to ~INR97b, following the addition of new orders worth ~INR15.3b, with deliveries expected in FY27-28. This provides ~100% visibility for FY27E revenue and ~60% for FY28E revenue.
* Cell expansion on track to unlock margin upside: Phase-I 2.4GW cell capacity is on track for production in 3QFY27, while Phase-II 3.6GW addition by FY28-end will take the total capacity to ~6GW, supporting EBITDA margin expansion to ~15% by FY28E from ~8% in FY27E. We estimate a CAGR of 36%/50% in revenue/EBITDA over FY26-28E, aided by higher DCR volumes.
Strong solar growth continues; domestic cell capacity lags demand
* Solar capacity expansion on track to exceed CEA’s FY27 target: India is progressing toward its target of expanding installed power capacity to ~900GW by FY32, with solar capacity expected to reach ~356GW (~40% of the total power mix vs. 28% currently) as per CEA estimates. The solar capacity addition trajectory remains firmly on track, with installed solar capacity reaching 168GW as of Aug’26, following ~18GW of additions during Apr-Aug’26. Accordingly, India is well positioned to surpass the CEA’s target of 176GW of installed solar capacity by FY27-end.
* Significant gap persists between cell and module capacity: Domestic cell manufacturing capacity continues to lag module capacity significantly as ALMM-II-listed domestic cell capacity stands at ~35GW compared with ~215GW of ALMM-I-listed module capacity as of Aug’26 end.
Strong new order momentum in 2QFY27 takes order book to new high
* INR10.4b SECI order adds 600MWp to DCR orders: SGEL recently secured a 600MWp DCR module order from SECI worth INR10.4b, implying a realization of ~INR17.36/Wp, with deliveries scheduled for Dec’27. While the pricing is below prevailing utility-scale module prices of USD0.20- 0.21/Wp, it helps the company build base utilization and establish a steady order pipeline from large utilities.
* INR15.3b of fresh orders received in last one month: SGEL’s order book stood at ~INR82b as of 18th Aug’26, comprising ~30% DCR and ~70% non-DCR orders. The company has secured an additional ~INR15.3b of orders since then, taking the order book to ~INR97b, with deliveries for the entire order book scheduled across FY27-28
Valuation and view
* We believe valuations are reasonable, given the growing order book, strong revenue visibility and improving margin profile as cell manufacturing capacity ramps up. We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR508 (23% upside).
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