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• The company expects a similarly robust performance in FY25, projecting sales bookings to reach Rs. 270 billion, collections to grow by 31%, and project deliveries to increase by 20%. Under the new agreement between Godrej & Boyce (G&B) and GPL, GPL will continue to serve as the development manager for the Vikhroli land owned by G&B. In terms of project additions, GPL introduced new projects with a total Gross Development Value (GDV) of Rs. 212.2 billion, with Rs. 128 billion added in Q4 FY24. The key project additions in Q4 FY24 include those at Rajendra Nagar and Kokapet in Hyderabad, Sector 44 in Noida, and Devanahalli in Bengaluru, with GDVs of Rs. 350 billion, Rs. 130 billion, Rs. 300 billion, and Rs. 500 billion, respectively.
• We anticipate that the momentum of project additions will continue in the coming years, supported by an increase in launches in regions outside the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) also, such as the National Capital Region (NCR), Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune. In terms of FY24 Presales of Rs. 225270 Mn, and area wise contribution is NCR - 44%, MMR- 29%, Pune- 12%, Bengaluru- 11% and Others were 4%. Since the last 6 years, CAGR has been- Presales - 33.5%, Sales Volume- 18%, Collections-32%, OCF- 52% and ASP- 14.3%.
• In Q4FY24, GPL did  pre-sale of Rs.8.17msft (+56% YoY/+88% QoQ) which was largely supported by NCR, MMR and Pune. Booking value increased by 135% YoY and 66% QoQ to Rs.95.2bn and collection grew by 23% YoY and 95% QoQ to Rs.46.93bn on the back of strong launch pipeline and inventory in these markets. We expect GPL to maintain the growth maintain in the coming quarters as well. Management expect Cash flows to grow by 50% CAGR supported by high quality sales in FY24 which should lead to Rs. 150bn in collections in FY25. Cash flows to support BD and  they have no plans of raising capital. In the coming years the company is projected to launch a pipeline of Rs.300bn with region wise contribution being-MMR-32%, NCR-31%, Bengaluru-16%, Pune-12% and remaining from the rest of India.

Outlook & Valuation: As real estate sector in India continues to hold its growth momentum post Covid backed by aspiration to own a home, rising per capita income and preference to opt the property from reputed developers over small/unorganized developers. We believe Tier-I developers will be the key beneficiary of this tailwind. GPL, post family arrangement on Vikhroli land, now there is more certainty on that piece of land which will help the company to fast track the launches from that land parcel. Moving into FY25, despite a high base, company aiming to achieve a pre-sale of Rs.270bn and collection of Rs.150bn, Management is expecting to achieve this milestone by maintaining the gearing ratio to less than 0.5x and without any fund raise. We like to retain our positive view on the stock with a TP of Rs. 2957 (6x of Price to Book of FY26E BPS.)

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