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Observations

Cottoncandy prices eased by 0.42% to close at Rs.54,590 as global cotton production for the 2024-25 crop year is projected to rise by 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million. This increase is primarily attributed to higher output in India and Argentina. In contrast, North India's cotton-producing states - Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan - reported a sharp 43% drop in kapas arrivals until November 30 compared to last year, creating raw material shortages for ginners and spinners, particularly in Punjab. India's cotton imports are estimated at 25 lakh bales for 2024-25, up from 15.2 lakh bales last season, with around 9 lakh bales already arriving at ports by November 2024. The domestic closing stock for September 2025 is expected to decline to 26.44 lakh bales, compared to 30.19 lakh bales in the previous year. Global production increases for India, Argentina, Benin, and Brazil have contributed to the projected rise in output, while smaller harvests are expected for Mali and Burkina Faso. World consumption is forecasted to increase by 570,000 bales, driven by higher demand from India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, despite a reduction in Chinese consumption. The market saw long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 422 contracts. Cottoncandy prices face immediate support at Rs.54,560, with a potential downside target of Rs.54,530. On the upside, resistance is likely at Rs.54,610, and a breach above this level could push prices to Rs.54,630.

BUY COTTONCANDY JAN @ 54700 SL 5400 TGT 55000-55300. MCX

Cocudakl

SELL COCUDAKL FEB @ 2800 SL 2840 TGT 2760-2720. NCDEX

Kapas

SELL KAPAS APR @ 1510 SL 1520 TGT 1500-1490. NCDEX

Cotwasoil

SELL COTWASOIL FEB @ 1235 SL 1245 TGT 1225-1215. NCDEX