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Gold 

Gold prices inched up by 0.09% to settle at 59,218, primarily driven by rising tensions in the Middle East, which increased demand for this safe-haven asset. The upcoming visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Israel amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza further adds to the uncertainty in the region. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is also in focus, as it could provide more clarity on the central bank's monetary policy direction, especially after recent dovish comments from several Fed officials. Retail sales in the U.S. exceeded expectations in September, indicating a strong end to the third quarter for the economy. However, gold price gains were limited by the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching a one-week high. In India, the physical gold market turned to a discount as domestic prices rebounded, leading buyers to step back. Meanwhile, in China, gold premiums retreated from recent highs. Indian jewelers expressed concerns about higher prices during the upcoming festival season potentially limiting retail purchases. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with a 0.59% decrease in open interest. Gold finds support at 58,980, and a drop below that could test 58,750. Resistance is expected at 59,460, and a breakout could push prices to 59,710.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 58750-59710.

* Gold ticked up as tensions in the Middle East buoyed safe-haven demand

* U.S. retail sales beat expectations in September
* Fed Chair Powell expected to speak on Thursday

Silver 

Silver prices increased by 0.75% to close at 71,567, as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid heightened tensions between Israel and Hamas. This uncertainty in global geopolitics led to a higher demand for precious metals like silver. The Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy also played a role. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker emphasized the importance of avoiding economic pressures through interest rate hikes, signaling a cautious approach to raising borrowing costs. The recent FOMC minutes revealed a preference to maintain elevated interest rates, with future decisions contingent on economic data. In the United States, retail sales for September 2023 grew by 0.7% month-on-month, surpassing expectations and indicating robust consumer spending despite elevated prices and borrowing costs. Additionally, manufacturing production in the U.S. increased by 0.4% in September, exceeding market expectations. While motor vehicle production was slightly hindered by ongoing strikes, other sectors such as wood products, primary metals, and plastics and rubber products saw gains. Investors are now eagerly awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak on Thursday. From a technical standpoint, the market is currently experiencing short covering, marked by a 5% decrease in open interest. Silver has found support at 70,780, and if it drops below, it may test 69,990. Resistance is expected at 72,180, and a breakthrough could push prices to 72,790.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 69990-72790.
* Silver gains as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets amid the escalation in the conflict between Israel and Islamist group Hamas.
* The greenback also continued to benefit from safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
* Fed’s Harker stated that the central bank should avoid creating new economic pressures by raising borrowing costs.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices remained unchanged, settling at 7192 per barrel, amid reports suggesting the U.S. may ease sanctions on Venezuela. This development, in addition to concerns over the Israel-Hamas conflict potentially expanding, influenced oil market dynamics. Libya announced plans to increase its oil production to two million barrels per day by the end of the decade, which could add to global supply. In contrast, U.S. oil output from major shale-producing regions is expected to decline for the third consecutive month in November, reaching its lowest level since May 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. oil production is forecasted to fall to 9.553 million barrels per day in November, down from 9.604 million in October. Despite the expected decline in U.S. shale oil production, the country's overall crude oil production reached a record 13.2 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous peak set in 2020. However, the growth in U.S. oil output has been gradual in recent years as companies have prioritized returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over increasing production. From a technical standpoint, the market is currently experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -3.4% to settle at 4,000. Key support levels for crude oil are at 7040, with a potential test of 6888 if it falls below this level. Resistance is likely to be observed at 7436, and a breakout could push prices to 7680.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6888-7680.
* Crudeoil dropped following reports that the U.S. may ease sanctions on Venezuela.
* Libya said it would ramp up its oil production to two million barrels per day before the close of the decade.
* Oil prices received some support amid concerns that the Israel-Hamas war may spill beyond the Israel-Palestine region.

Natural gas

Natural gas experienced a 2.29% decline, closing at 255.8, driven by factors such as record-high gas production, reduced gas prices in Europe, and expectations of mild U.S. weather until late October, suppressing heating and cooling demand. Lower 48 U.S. states reported increased gas output for October, reaching 103.4 billion cubic feet per day, up from 102.6 bcfd in September. This surge, in conjunction with mild weather predictions, is expected to maintain U.S. gas demand at approximately 97.3 bcfd this week and next, albeit higher than previously estimated by LSEG. Pipeline exports to Mexico slightly decreased in October to 7.0 bcfd, while gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities rose to 13.4 bcfd, largely due to the reopening of the Cove Point export plant in Maryland. Speculators raised their net long futures and options positions to their highest levels since May 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. From a technical perspective, the market observed fresh selling with a 12.84% increase in open interest, settling at 30,414. Prices dropped by -6 rupees, with support at 251.7 and a potential test of 247.6. Resistance is expected at 260.7, and a breakthrough could lead to testing at 265.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 247.6-265.6.
* Natural gas fell on record output, a drop in gas prices in Europe
* Forecasts for mild U.S. weather through late October that should keep heating and cooling demand low.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 103.4 bcfd so far in October



Copper

Copper prices saw a slight 0.2% drop, closing at 699.1, primarily due to concerns about reduced demand and a temporary alleviation of long-term shortage worries driven by higher inventories. Worries about the US economy adapting to higher interest rates raised concerns of potential industrial growth slowdown, coupled with financial risks from debt-laden property firms in China impacting key resource buyers in Asia. Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, rising by nearly 50% to 56.7 thousand tonnes on the week ending October 13th, concerns of supply shortages persist, especially in the coming years. Reports from the EIA and the International Copper Association indicate a projected 26% increase in copper supply by 2035, falling well short of the anticipated 50% demand increase. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a global copper market deficit of 27,000 metric tons in 2023 and a surplus of 467,000 tons in 2024. Refined copper usage is expected to rise by around 2% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024, with refined copper production forecasted to increase by about 3.8% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, according to the ICSG. From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with a 7.08% drop in open interest and a 1.4 rupee decrease in prices. Copper's support level is at 695.8, and a break below this could test 692.5. On the upside, resistance is likely at 701.6, with a potential move to test 704.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 692.5-704.1.
* Copper fell amid concerns of lower demand and higher inventories.
* Expectations that the US economy has shifted to a new norm of higher interest rates raised worries that industrial growth may slow.
* A sharp rise in copper inventories this month weighed against heightened concerns of shortages in the long term.

Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a 0.7% decline, settling at 218.9, reflecting concerns regarding gloomy economic growth projections and a rise in metal inventory. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts surpluses in global refined zinc markets for 2023 and 2024, with a surplus of 248,000 tons and 367,000 tons, respectively. Global demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1.1% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024, reaching 13.59 and 13.93 million tons, respectively. The surge in global refined zinc metal production is anticipated, with a 3.7% increase in 2023 and a 3.3% rise in 2024. China plays a significant role in driving this growth. Total LME zinc stocks have seen a substantial increase, reaching 99,100 tons, a stark contrast from the 30,475 tons on January 3. In China, consumer prices remained stagnant in September, while factory-gate prices showed a slower decline. This suggests persisting deflationary pressures in the country's economy. The consumer price index (CPI) didn't change from the previous year, and the producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.5%, marking the narrowest decline since March. While China's economy shows signs of stabilizing, concerns linger regarding the strength of its recovery momentum. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 10.58% and prices dropping by 1.55 rupees. Zinc's support lies at 217.8, and a breach of this could lead to a test of 216.5. On the upside, resistance is likely at 219.9, and a move above may prompt a test of 220.7.

Trading Ideas:

*Zinc trading range for the day is 216.5-220.7.
* Zinc settled flat amid gloomy economic growth forecast and rising metal inventory.
* China's Sept consumer prices flat, factory deflation persists
* Global refined zinc markets are likely to see surpluses in both 2023 and 2024


Aluminium

Aluminium prices saw a 0.25% drop, closing at 202.1, primarily due to a bleak outlook driven by supply surpassing demand. The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium stocks have been steadily increasing throughout the year, now at 502,850 tonnes as of October 4, marking a 12% rise from the start of the year. This is a notable 53% increase from the previous year when stocks were at 328,600 tonnes. Gwangyang, South Korea, holds a significant portion of the global LME aluminium stocks, with 264,400 tonnes, representing a remarkable 52,780% increase from just 500 tonnes a year ago. This surge in supply has led to weaker premiums for aluminium in both the exchange and the physical market. On the export front, China's unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports in September decreased to 471,298.80 tonnes from August's 490,131.60 tonnes. While China's trade data showed a slowdown in export and import declines in September, challenges persist in the Chinese economy, including deflationary pressures, a property crisis, global growth slowdown, and geopolitical tensions. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest down by -12.02% to settle at 3337 contracts. Prices also dipped by -0.5 rupees. The current support level for aluminium is at 201.6, potentially testing 200.9 if this level is breached. Resistance is expected at 202.6, with the possibility of prices reaching 202.9 if this level is exceeded.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.9-202.9.
* Aluminium dropped as the outlook for the commodity worsened, with supply set to outweigh demand
* LME stocks are currently sitting at 502,850 tonnes, a 12% increase from 447,250 tonnes at the beginning of the year
* China exported 471,298.80 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, in September, down from August's 490,131.60 tonnes.

Cotton

Cotton prices settled at 58,880, a -0.41% decrease driven by profit booking, following a USDA report reducing U.S. cotton production to 12.8 million bales for 2023/24 due to lower yields in Texas. Notably, Brazil is set to surpass the U.S. in cotton production and exports, marking a historic shift. Australia saw a surge in cotton exports to China, reaching 61,319 metric tons in August, worth $130 million. In contrast, India's Cotton Association revised its estimate for the 2022-23 season slightly upwards to 31.8 million bales. However, this figure differs from the government's estimate of 34.3 million bales. The 2023-24 cotton season in India is expected to yield between 33 to 34 million bales. Although cotton acreage in Telangana decreased due to unfavorable weather conditions, cotton picking is expected to gain momentum in the coming weeks. The pre-sowing price forecast for cotton in 2023-24 anticipates normal rainfall and an increase in crop area. In the Rajkot spot market, cotton prices ended at 27,615.25 Rupees, dropping by -0.4%. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 3.74% to settle at 111. Prices have fallen by -240 rupees. Support for Cottoncandy is at 58,580, with potential testing at 58,290. Resistance is expected at 59,180, and a move above may lead to a test of 59,490.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 58290-59490.
* Cotton dropped  on profit booking after prices gained as USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales.
* The USDA also said Brazil's cotton production in 2023/24 will exceed that of the United States for the first time
* Australia's exports of cotton to China ballooned to 61,319 metric tons worth $130 million in August
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27615.25 Rupees dropped by -0.4 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices saw a significant uptick of 3.66% to settle at 14,316 due to concerns about potential yield losses triggered by unfavorable October weather conditions. Despite satisfactory crop conditions and a harvest period from January to March, limited upside is expected due to improved weather conditions. The Indian Meteorological Department's projection of drier-than-average weather in October is anticipated to negatively impact crop growth, contributing to the price stability resulting from current buying activity and dwindling supplies. Furthermore, increased export opportunities are bolstering turmeric prices, with a 25% surge in exports due to rising demand in developed and emerging nations. However, expectations of a 20-25% decrease in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, reflect shifting priorities among farmers. In the April to July 2023 period, turmeric exports increased by 15.05% compared to the same period in 2022, further supporting prices. In the key spot market of Nizamabad, prices ended at 13,831.65 Rupees, representing a 2.31% gain. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 2.8% to settle at 13,775, while prices increased by 506 rupees. Support levels stand at 14,042, with the possibility of a test of 13,770, while resistance is likely at 14,468, and a move above could lead to prices testing 14,622.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13770-14622.
* Turmeric gains due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's anticipated unfavourable October weather.
* Crop condition is satisfactory and it will be ready for harvest ready for harvest during January to March.
* Support is also evident for improved export opportunities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13831.65 Rupees gained by 2.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rose by 0.87% to reach 58,150, driven by a low-level recovery due to limited availability of quality crops. However, the upside is constrained by sluggish export demand, with global buyers preferring alternatives like Syria and Turkey due to higher Indian prices. The competitive global market pricing keeps overseas demand subdued but doesn't favor exporters, leading to expectations of subdued export activity ahead. China's reduced buying of Indian Jeera and the uncertain dynamics of its potential purchases in October-November are affecting Indian exports. Additionally, drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to increase arrivals, limiting upward price movements. Forecasts suggest cumin demand exceeding supply this year, indicating potential supply shortages. Jeera exports from April to July 2023 decreased by 7.99% compared to the same period in 2022, with a notable 20.30% drop in July 2023 alone. In the major spot market of Unjha, prices rose by 0.14%. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering with a decrease in open interest by -0.28% and a price increase of 500 rupees. Jeera finds support at 57,530, with potential testing of 56,920. Resistance is likely at 58,620, with the possibility of prices reaching 59,100.

Trading Ideas:

*Jeera trading range for the day is 56920-59100.
* Jeera gains on low level recovery amid limited availability of quality crop.
* Global demand of Indian jeera slumped as most of buyers preferred other destinations like Syria and Turkey
* Export is likely to remain down in upcoming months as per the export seasonality.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 58595.55 Rupees gained by 0.14 percent.

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