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Nifty : 24619

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* The Indian equity benchmark closed on a positive note and settled the session at 24,619, up 0.54% amid better-than-expected inflation print which boosted the market sentiment. Both Midcap and small cap indices relatively outperformed the benchmark and closed positive up >0.50%. Sectorally, PSU Bank, Oil & Gas and FMCG were the laggards, while, Pharma, Metal and Auto outshone.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty staged a strong rebound after retesting breakout aera of falling wedge in Tuesday’s session wherein it recover 80% of previous sessions range. As a result daily price action formed Inside bar carrying higher-low for the second consecutive session.

* In line with our view, after 6-weeks of decline (5%) index witnessed a technical pullback from oversold conditions. However, for the extension of ongoing pullback, index need to decisively close above last week’s high(24700) which would confirm higher high-low formation on the weekly chart as per classic Dow Theory and open the door towards the psychological mark of 25000 in coming weeks. Amidst this development, we revise our support around 24200 levels.

* Going forward, all eyes will be on US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet on August 15, 2025, to resolve ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict along with this, tariff related development would dictate the further course of action.

* On the structural front, market breadth has improved and bounced from the bullish support zone of 25 where the % of stocks above 50 days EMA currently is at 32 that offers incremental buying opportunity. We believe, the earning-based volatility is likely to subside as we enter the fag end of the earning season while focus will now completely shift to tariff development.

* In the technical parlance, 200 days has the utmost importance where long term accumulation take place. The index after bouncing from gap zone (24379-24164) we revise our support at 24200being 200-days EMA and 38.20% retracement of entire up move off April low 21743 amid oversold condition, indicating possibility of technical pullback cannot be ruled out. Hence, traders should refrain from creating aggressive short position in the truncated week. Instead focus should be on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong earnings in a staggered manner.

Key monitorable to watch out for in current volatile scenario:

a) Development of Bilateral trade deal negotiations.

b) U.S. Dollar index retreated from past two years breakdown area of 100, indicating corrective bias while crude oil pared last week's gains and resumed downward momentum.

Nifty Bank : 55200

Technical Outlook

Week that was:

* The Bank Nifty closed the day on a positive note, settling at 55,200 up 0.33%. The Nifty Pvt Bank index mirrored the benchmark, ending at 26,654 with a gain of 0.36%..

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty extended its consolidation phase, marking a third consecutive inside bar, with price action compressed within Friday’s range of 54,900–55,640. The formation of a small lower wick reflects supportive efforts emerging in the vicinity of 100-day EMA.

* Bank Nifty continues to trade comfortably above the confluence of key support at the 100-day EMA and the rising trendline, both positioned near 54,900, which has remained intact since mid-April 2025. On the global front, the scheduled meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, 2025, aimed at resolving the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, will be a key event to watch. A favorable outcome such as a ceasefire could catalyse a positive sentiment of breakout above the previous week’s high of 55,750. A sustained breakout above this level, accompanied by follow-through strength, would pave the way for the next leg of the uptrend. Notably, the six-week corrective phase has pushed the weekly stochastic oscillator into extreme oversold territory, indicating that selling pressure is likely abating and setting the stage for a potential rebound. Meanwhile, any nearterm pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity, with strong support placed at the previous gap zone around 54,400.

* Structurally Since April, intermediate corrections have remained shallow while the index has consistently held above its 100-day EMA. Moreover, over the past eleven weeks, the index has retraced 50% of the preceding up move from 51863 to 57614 (11%) in the previous six weeks, indicating a slower pace of retracement with a robust price structure, that augurs well for the next leg of the uptrend.

* PSU Bank Index relatively underperformed the benchmark and closed marginal high, the index has formed a small bull candle, signaling an extended breather. The index has retraced close to the 38.2% level of its preceding 20% rally from 6,052 to 7,250 and rebounded above 7,000 mark, suggesting renewed strength, while maintaining this momentum could open the way for another leg higher toward 7,250. While the Bank Nifty consolidates within 4% of its all-time high, PSU Banks continue to lag significantly, trading 13% below their peak. This presents a potential catch-up opportunity for the sector

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