IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices rose 0.55% to settle at 1,02,100 as a softer dollar and anticipation of key U.S. inflation data supported investor sentiment. Traders are closely watching Friday’s release of the U.S. PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could guide expectations on interest rate cuts. Markets currently price in over an 87% chance of a 25 bps cut in the Fed’s September policy meeting, as reaffirmed by comments from New York Fed President John Williams hinting that rates may decline once incoming data justifies it. On the trade front, Swiss customs data showed July gold exports broadly stable, with higher deliveries to the U.S. (51 tons, highest since March) and India (13 tons) offsetting declines to the UK and China. Meanwhile, China’s net imports via Hong Kong surged by nearly 127% in July, reflecting continued investor appetite despite domestic weakness. Physical demand in Asia, however, remained mixed. Indian jewellers resumed buying ahead of the festive season, though volatility capped broader retail demand. India traded between a $2 discount and a $3 premium, narrowing from last week’s deeper discounts, while Chinese bullion traded at $3–8 premiums. Other Asian hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong also witnessed modest premiums. Fresh buying was noted as open interest jumped 11.69% to 15,887 contracts alongside a 558 price gain. Support lies at 1,01,585, with further downside toward 1,01,065. Resistance is placed at 1,02,375, with a break above targeting 1,02,645.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 101065-102645.

* Gold prices rose as the dollar softened while investors hunkered down for Friday's U.S. inflation data.

* Fed’s Williams said that interest rates could fall at some point, but policymakers will need to gauge upcoming data.

* Investors are awaiting Friday's release of the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Silver

Silver prices extended gains, settling 0.93% higher at 117,174 as the dollar stayed under pressure amid expectations of a dovish Fed policy shift. Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, suggesting that economic conditions may soon warrant rate cuts, reinforced market sentiment. U.S. economic data showed stronger-than-expected momentum, with Q2 GDP revised upward to 3.3% from 3%, supported by robust household spending and investment. Labor market data indicated some softening, but not enough to raise immediate alarm, as initial jobless claims dipped to 229,000 while continuing claims fell to 1.95 million. On the industrial side, silver found additional support from surging solar sector demand in China, with solar cell exports rising more than 70% in the first half of 2025 and new solar capacity installations tripling year-on-year. This aligns with the structural growth in green energy applications, which continues to underpin long-term demand. Investor appetite also remained strong, with silver ETPs recording net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, lifting global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces—just shy of the all-time highs of 2021. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped sharply by 95.23% to 5,593 contracts, while prices gained 1,077 rupees. Support is seen at 116,305, with a break lower exposing 115,435, whereas resistance is at 117,840, above which prices could test 118,505.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 115435-118505.

* Silver rises as weak dollar reflects trade tensions, Fed pressure, and dovish outlook

* Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, noting that conditions “may warrant” rate cuts.

* The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended marginally higher, settling up by 0.02% at 5,619 as the market balanced between demand-side concerns and supply-side developments. Prices faced pressure from expectations of weaker U.S. fuel demand with the end of the summer driving season, coupled with the restart of Russian crude flows to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline after a temporary outage. However, ongoing military strikes on energy infrastructure by both Russia and Ukraine provided some support, keeping supply risks in focus. On the U.S. inventory front, data painted a mixed picture. Crude oil stocks fell by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, surpassing expectations of a 2 million-barrel draw, while Cushing hub inventories declined by 838,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels, a smaller drop than the expected 2.5 million, while distillate inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels, against forecasts for a build of 1.1 million. These figures highlighted steady demand despite seasonal weakness. Meanwhile, India’s position on continuing Russian oil imports despite U.S. pressure added to the supply cushion globally. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying with open interest inching higher by 0.15% to 11,786 contracts. Support is placed at 5,573, below which 5,527 may be tested, while resistance is seen at 5,654, with further strength likely if prices break toward 5,689.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5527-5689.

* Crude oil settled flat pressured by expectations of lower U.S. fuel demand at the end of the summer travel season.

* Pressure also seen amid restart of Russian supply to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline.

* Data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended August 22.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged by 2.75% to settle at 261.4, supported by bullish inventory data and robust export demand. The latest U.S. storage report showed an injection of 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended August 22, well below expectations of a 26 bcf build. This smaller-than-expected increase tightened the market balance, leaving inventories about 5% above the five-year average for this time of year. In addition, strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) export flows, averaging 15.9 bcfd so far in August compared to 15.6 bcfd in July, added further support. While this remains slightly below April’s record 16.0 bcfd, it highlights consistent export strength. Weather dynamics also played a role, with forecasts projecting 155 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, significantly above the seasonal norm of 135, boosting near-term demand. On the supply side, production continues to hover at record levels, averaging 108.5 bcfd in August, surpassing July’s peak of 107.8 bcfd. Longer-term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects record output of 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before a slight decline in 2026, alongside record demand of 91.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing in 2026. Technically, natural gas is under short covering, with open interest falling by 11.96% to 27,278 contracts while prices rose by 7. Immediate support is at 253.4, below which prices may test 245.4, while resistance is seen at 266.3, and a break above could open the path toward 271.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 245.4-271.2.

* Natural gas gained amid a smaller-than-expected storage build and on strong LNG exports.

* Flows to US LNG export plants rise to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.6 bcfd in July.

* Overall gas demand in the Lower 48 is expected to ease from 111.1 bcfd to around 104.3 bcfd by mid-September.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling 0.72% up at 891.25, supported by signs of improving profitability in China’s industrial sector despite ongoing demand concerns. Industrial profits in China declined 1.5% year-on-year in July, a smaller drop than June’s 4.3% fall, reflecting some stabilization in manufacturing activity, with manufacturing profits rising 6.8%. However, the demand outlook remains clouded by persistent factory gate deflation and weak broader industrial growth. On the supply and inventory front, rising stockpiles in LME-registered warehouses, which climbed by another 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, weighed on sentiment. LME inventories have surged 72% since late June, while COMEX stocks nearly tripled this year, indicating ample supply in Western exchanges. Citi revised its near-term copper price forecast upward to $9,200 per tonne, citing tight concentrate supplies and steady demand from China and other emerging economies. Similarly, Cochilco maintained its average copper price outlook for 2025 and 2026 at $4.30 per pound. The International Copper Study Group reported a 36,000-ton surplus in June, narrowing from 79,000 tons in May, suggesting a gradual tightening of the global market. Technically, copper is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 0.21% to 6,615 contracts alongside a 6.35 gain. Support is at 886.1, below which 881 may be tested, while resistance lies at 894, with a breakout opening the path toward 896.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 881-896.8.

* Copper gained amid signs of improving profitability among China's industrial firms.

* Still, rising inventories in LME-registered warehouses weighed, increasing by 1,100 tons to 156,000 tons.

* Profits at China's industrial firms declined by 1.5% in July year-on-year.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher, settling 0.56% up at 267.2, supported by expectations of production cuts among Chinese miners and refiners alongside a weaker dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a likely rate cut in September. The prospect of looser monetary conditions globally boosted investor sentiment toward base metals, while Beijing’s pledge to reduce capacity in the metal sector to counter deflationary pressures added to the supportive tone. On the supply front, tightening conditions continued to shape the market. LME zinc inventories fell sharply by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to 42,000 tonnes, reflecting lower availability in Western markets. At the same time, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 1.3% last week, signaling mixed regional stock trends. Global supply has been pressured by production setbacks at major mines, including a 20% output drop at Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine and a 25% annual cut announced by Nyrstar. From a balance perspective, the ILZSG reported the global zinc deficit narrowed to 27,200 tons in June from 31,400 in May. Yet, for the first half of 2025, the market showed a surplus of 47,000 tons, suggesting easing tightness compared to earlier expectations. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 2.74% to 2,944 contracts while prices gained 1.5. Zinc finds support at 265.6, with further downside risk toward 264, while resistance lies at 268.3, above which 269.4 may be tested.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 264-269.4.

*  Zinc gained amid likelihood of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners.

* The developments were consistent with lower LME inventories, dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to 42,000 tonnes.

* Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices ended marginally higher by 0.04% at 252.9, supported by tightening supply outlook despite a mixed global balance. Data showed the global primary aluminium market posted a surplus of 183,100 tons in June as production outpaced consumption. However, in the first half of 2025, the market recorded a slight shortage of 36,700 tons, highlighting that supply-demand dynamics remain finely balanced. On the production side, global aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Yet risks to supply persist as Guinea, a key bauxite supplier, revoked all mining licenses and transferred them to a state-owned company, potentially disrupting raw material supply to Emirates Global Aluminium. Further supply concerns were stoked by South32’s decision to close its Mozal smelter in Mozambique due to power shortages, impacting Africa’s second-largest aluminium facility. Regional supply tightness was also evident as aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 0.4% in July to 315,400 tons, while European markets continue to grapple with sanctions on Russian aluminium. On the demand side, China’s aluminium trade activity was strong.  Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 1.57% to 3,942 contracts while prices edged up 0.1. Aluminium finds support at 252.4, with further downside possible to 251.8, while resistance is seen at 253.7 and above that at 254.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.8-254.4.

* Aluminium gained amid support from the impact of lower supply.

* European markets continue to face constrained supply due to sanctions on Russia

* Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year on year to 6.373 million tonnes.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher, settling up by 0.14% at 13,260 as tight stocks and depleted supplies in key producing regions such as Warangal lent support. Arrivals have been absent in the past two days, with farmers holding limited inventory, keeping market sentiment firm. However, the upside appears capped as increased acreage, supported by favorable rains during the current sowing season, is expected to improve production prospects. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% for the 2024–25 season, building upon last year’s expansion, when the area under cultivation grew 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares. At the Duggirala market, strong buyer interest in fresh arrivals continues to push new crop prices higher compared to older stock, reflecting demand for superior quality produce. Daily trade volumes remain robust at 1,000–1,200 bags, and with around 50–55% of the new crop already sold, market activity is expected to stay steady in the weeks ahead as harvesting continues through June.  On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–June 2025 rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared with the same period last year. However, June 2025 exports dipped 7.93% year-on-year to 13,787.28 tonnes and fell sharply by 28.21% month-on-month from May, reflecting volatility in overseas demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest rising 1.29% to 18,040 contracts while prices gained 18. Immediate support is seen at 13,108, below which prices could test 12,958, while resistance is at 13,392, and a break above may lead prices to 13,526.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12958-13526.

* Turmeric gains as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13830.6 Rupees gained by 0.87 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures slipped by 0.74% to settle at 19,320, weighed down by weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Market participants noted that foreign buyers remain largely inactive, while comfortable stock levels and tepid overseas interest are keeping prices under pressure. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season closes, leaving a sizeable carryover stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. For the 2025 season, cumin output in India is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, reflecting reduced sowing in major producing states. Gujarat is expected to contribute 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 48–50 lakh bags. On the global front, adverse weather has trimmed production estimates in China to 70,000–80,000 tonnes from earlier projections of 1 lakh tonnes, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9–10,000 tonnes, 10–11,000 tonnes, and 10–12,000 tonnes respectively.  Exports from India during April–June 2025 declined sharply by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes against 73,666.09 tonnes last year. On a monthly basis, June exports rose 10.26% year-on-year to 16,322.06 tonnes but fell steeply by 29.67% compared to May, highlighting uneven overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest slipped 0.32% to 4,689 contracts alongside a 145 drop in prices. Immediate support is placed at 19,190, below which prices could test 19,060, while resistance is at 19,470 and a break above could lift prices toward 19,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19060-19620.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19753 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views