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Gold

Gold prices fell by -0.57% to settle at Rs.87,278, driven by a stronger US dollar, which climbed above the 104.3 mark — its highest level since March 4 — following upbeat US PMI data and cautious anticipation around President Trump’s trade policies ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline. Trump's hints at potential flexibility on reciprocal tariffs, paired with the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold off on rate cuts due to economic uncertainties, added further pressure on gold. The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, highlighted the challenge of balancing inflation risks against potential economic slowdowns from new tariffs, prompting traders to price in around 63 basis points of rate cuts for 2024. In India, gold demand has weakened significantly, reflected in discounts hitting an eight-month high at $41 per ounce over domestic prices, up from $39 last week. February imports are expected to plunge by 85% year-on-year, marking a two-decade low. China's gold market also showed discounts of $2-$16 per ounce. Looking ahead, the World Gold Council predicts India’s 2025 gold consumption will moderate to between 700-800 metric tons, slightly below last year’s nine-year high of 802.8 tons. While jewellery demand (70% of total consumption) may soften due to record prices, investment demand in ETFs, digital gold, and physical bullion remains strong. Technically, gold remains in a long liquidation phase, evidenced by a 15.26% drop in open interest to 9,191 contracts. Support is at Rs.86,990, with further downside to Rs.86,700. Resistance is pegged at Rs.87,750, and a break above could push prices toward Rs.88,220.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 86700-88220.
* Gold dropped as US dollar index rose above the 104.3 mark, reaching its highest level since March 4
* President Trump hinted that there would be some flexibility regarding reciprocal tariffs.
* Fed policymakers projected two quarter-point cuts later this year, the same median forecast as in December.


Silver
Silver prices settled down by -0.4% at Rs.97,493, driven by profit booking despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties supporting the metal’s long-term outlook. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel resuming strikes on Hamas and U.S.-Russia talks on a potential Black Sea ceasefire, added to global unease. Additionally, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year continue to underpin silver’s bullish potential. The Fed maintained interest rates last week but hinted at two possible cuts this year, with key figures like New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaling no immediate rush for policy changes. Looking ahead, the silver market is projected to face a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, though the shortfall is expected to shrink by 19% to 149 million ounces. Industrial demand remains a key pillar, forecast to grow by 3% — surpassing 700 million ounces for the first time — driven by green economy applications and industrial fabrication. Physical silver investment is also expected to rise by 3%, supported by renewed interest in Europe and North America. Global silver supply is set to climb by 3% to an 11-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, fueled by higher mine output and recycling gains. Technically, silver remains under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 2.56% to 18,778 contracts. Support is at Rs.97,080, with a further dip to Rs.96,670 possible. Resistance is seen at Rs.98,190, and a breakout above this could push prices to Rs.98,890.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 96670-98890.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after seen supported amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee argued for the Fed standing aside until more clarity emerged.
* Fed’s Williams said the U.S. central bank's monetary policy is in the right place and there's no urgency to make any changes to interest rates.


Crude Oil
Crude oil prices rose by 0.53% to settle at Rs.5,931, driven by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports and ongoing talks to negotiate a Black Sea ceasefire, which could potentially increase Russian crude supply to global markets. Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to raise output by 138,000 barrels per day next month, adding to supply pressure. U.S. commercial crude imports fell by 85,000 bpd to 5.4 million bpd — the lowest since March 2023 — with Canadian imports plunging to a two-year low of 3.1 million bpd, down 541,000 bpd week-on-week. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.745 million barrels, surpassing market expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase. However, stocks at the Cushing delivery hub dropped by 1.009 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 0.527 million barrels, less than the expected 2 million draw. Distillate stockpiles saw a larger-than-expected decline of 2.812 million barrels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a global oil surplus of around 600,000 bpd this year, potentially growing by 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ extends output increases. The agency revised its 2025 demand growth forecast downward by 70,000 bpd to 1 million bpd, with growth driven mainly by Asia’s petrochemical sector. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising 8.77% to 5,633 contracts. Support is seen at Rs.5,868, with a potential dip to Rs.5,806. Resistance is expected at Rs.5,976, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.6,022.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5806-6022.
* Crude oil gained amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports against talks to end the war in Ukraine.
* OPEC+ is set to gradually revive production next month, increasing output by 138,000 barrels per day.
* Market sentiment was also weighed down by concerns over U.S. trade policies


Natural Gas
Natural gas prices slipped by -1.83% to close at Rs.337.9, pressured by record production levels and forecasts of milder weather, which is expected to reduce heating demand through early April. Despite this downturn, gas stockpiles remain approximately 8% below normal levels for this time of year, following substantial withdrawals during the severe winter in January and February — including record drawdowns in January. Production continues to rise, with data from LSEG showing average output in the Lower 48 U.S. states hitting 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, surpassing February's record of 105.1 bcfd. Weather forecasts indicate warmer-than-usual temperatures through April 5, contributing to expectations of weaker demand. LSEG predicts overall gas demand, including exports, will rise slightly from 106.8 bcfd this week to 108.0 bcfd next week before easing to 106.1 bcfd in two weeks. Storage figures showed a notable build of 9 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending March 14, 2025 — the first increase since November 2024 — exceeding market forecasts of a 3 bcf addition. Regional data revealed a 28 bcf rise in the South Central region, offsetting withdrawals in the East, Midwest, and Pacific regions. Storage remains 26.8% lower year-on-year and 10% below the five-year average. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, evidenced by an 8.28% rise in open interest to 13,559 contracts. Support is at Rs.334, with further downside potential to Rs.330. Resistance is seen at Rs.342.7, with a breakout possibly driving prices toward Rs.347.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 330-347.4.
* Natural gas dropped on record output and forecasts for milder weather.
* US gas output on track to hit monthly record in March
* US LNG export feedgas set to hit monthly record in March


Copper
Copper prices edged up by 0.27% to Rs.901.5, driven by mounting concerns over U.S. tariffs and optimism surrounding new stimulus measures in China. President Trump’s executive order to investigate copper imports on national security grounds sparked speculation of a looming 25% tariff. This fueled a rush for shipments to the U.S., tightening global supply and pushing up premiums. Additionally, supply constraints persist due to underinvestment in mining and reduced refining capacity, while demand remains strong, driven by electric vehicles, AI technologies, and renewable energy expansion. China’s set GDP growth target of 5% and ongoing stimulus measures are further boosting copper demand, intensifying the bullish sentiment. The premium of the Comex contract over the LME reached an eye-watering $1,290 per ton — reflecting tight U.S. supplies — while on-warrant LME copper stocks dropped to 117,775 tons, their lowest since June. Cancelled warrants now account for 48% of total LME copper stocks, signaling further drawdowns. In contrast, copper inventories in China surged toward 270,000 tons — triple the level from early this year — driven by increased domestic production, which rose 3.7% in January and February. Global market data from ICSG revealed a 22,000-ton deficit in December, narrowing from November’s 124,000-ton shortfall. Technically, the market is under short covering, reflected in a sharp 39.3% drop in open interest to 1,773 contracts. Copper now has support at Rs.897.1, with a potential fall to Rs.892.8, while resistance is seen at Rs.907.2 — a break above could test Rs.913 levels.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 892.8-913.
* Copper surged driven by concerns over US tariffs and new stimulus measures in China.
* China’s GDP growth target was set at 5%, and the government is implementing stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption.
* The premium of the Comex contract over the LME one hit a record high of $1,346 per ton and was last at $1,290, or 13%.


Zinc
Zinc prices dipped by 0.25% to Rs.274.75, driven by profit booking after recent gains fueled by supply concerns. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell by 6.9%, highlighting tighter availability. China's zinc production rose by 1.8% year-on-year to 1.13 million metric tons in January and February, with smelters keen to ramp up output. However, global supply worries escalated after Nyrstar announced a 25% production cut at its Hobart smelter in Australia from April, citing unfavorable raw material costs and negative treatment charges. The Hobart facility, with a 260,000-ton capacity, faces ongoing financial challenges, adding pressure to global supply. LME on-warrant zinc stocks dropped to 94,700 tons — their lowest since November 2023 — following 42,575 tons of fresh cancellations. Global mined zinc output continued its three-year decline in 2024, with reductions in Canada, South Africa, China, and Peru. This led to a market swing from a 310,000-ton surplus in 2023 to a 62,000-ton deficit in 2024, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). Despite lower usage in key regions like China, the U.S., and Europe, demand remained steady at 13.6 million tons, offset by increased consumption in Brazil, India, and South Korea. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, marked by a significant 32.83% drop in open interest to 841 contracts. Zinc now finds support at Rs.273.6, with a further drop potentially testing Rs.272.5. Resistance stands at Rs.276.8 — a breakout could push prices toward Rs.278.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.5-278.9.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained as supply concerns intensified and SHFE inventories dropped 6.9%
* Nyrstar announced 25% production cuts at its Hobart zinc operations in Australia from April, sending prices higher.
* China’s zinc production in January and February rose 1.8% from the prior year to around 1.13 million metric tons


Aluminium
Aluminium prices fell by 0.61% to Rs.254.1, driven by improved raw material availability. Increased alumina production in Guinea, Australia, and China pushed alumina prices to near one-year lows, supporting better processing rates for smelters. However, finished aluminium supply may face constraints. China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, hit a record 44 million tons of output in 2024. With Beijing’s production cap of 45 million tons still in place since 2017, output is expected to slow this year to curb excess supply and meet carbon emission targets. Trade data also revealed muted Chinese aluminium exports after the removal of tax rebates, shifting local producers' focus toward domestic sales. February 2025’s aluminium production in China rose 0.4% year-on-year but dropped by 95,000 metric tons month-on-month. Increased operating capacity was driven by production resumptions at previously curtailed plants and new projects benefiting from better aluminium profit margins. JP Morgan forecasts a severe global aluminium market tightening, predicting a 600,000-ton deficit by 2025 due to slowing supply growth, reflecting China’s struggles. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium output rose by 2.7% year-on-year to 6.252 million tons in January, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 28.56% to 1,153 contracts alongside a Rs.1.55 price decline. Aluminium now holds support at Rs.252.6, with a break below potentially testing Rs.251.1. Resistance is seen at Rs.257, and a breakout above could push prices toward Rs.259.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.1-259.9.
* Aluminium prices dropped amid the improved availability for raw materials.
* Major alumina producers in Guinea, Australia, and China added new capacity to recover from series of disruptions last year.
* Global aluminium output falls 0.9% year on year in February – IAI


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices slipped by 0.64% to Rs.52,700, driven by increased supply and sluggish mill buying as mills remain well-stocked. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) further cut its 2024-25 crop estimate by 2% to 295.30 lakh bales, reflecting a significant 10% decline in cultivation area, particularly in central India. Government projections also revised the cotton crop downward to 294.25 lakh bales from 299 lakh bales. Gujarat and Maharashtra are expected to see reductions of 4 lakh and 3 lakh bales, respectively, while Odisha shows a marginal rise of 0.55 lakh bales. Imports are set to double to 32 lakh bales from 15.2 lakh bales last season, with 22 lakh bales already brought in by February-end. Domestic consumption remains pegged at 315 lakh bales, with consumption hitting 142 lakh bales by February. Exports, however, are projected to fall sharply by 40% to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales last year. Closing stocks for the season ending September 2025 are expected to tighten at 23.49 lakh bales, compared to 30.19 lakh bales previously. Globally, Brazil’s production is forecasted to rise by 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, driven by a 4.8% expansion in planting areas. Meanwhile, U.S. projections saw minimal changes, with domestic mill use lowered and ending stocks-to-use ratio rising to 39%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 32.84% to settle at 90. Support is seen at Rs.51,960, with a further downside to Rs.51,220 possible. Resistance is likely at ?53,090, and a breakout could push prices to Rs.53,480.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 51220-53480.
* Cotton dropped due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.
* Mills are well-stocked and are not facing immediate purchasing requirements.
* CAI has further reduced its 2024-25 crop estimate by 2 per cent to 295.30 lakh bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25553.05 Rupees dropped by -0.04 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices dropped by 2.54% to settle at 13,054, driven by the arrival of the new crop and increased acreage this season. The area under turmeric cultivation expanded to 3.30 lakh hectares — a 10% rise from the previous season’s 3 lakh hectares. However, production isn’t expected to match this growth due to untimely rains, leading to a 10-15% decline in productivity in key regions like Nanded. This could keep overall production close to last year’s 10.75 lakh tonnes, fluctuating within a 3-5% range. Despite the dip in prices, strong demand and robust export performance provided underlying support. Turmeric exports surged by 13% during April-December 2024, reaching 1,36,921 tonnes compared to 1,21,170 tonnes in the same period of 2023. December alone saw exports rise 46.94% year-on-year to 15,319.82 tonnes, highlighting sustained international demand. Conversely, imports rose significantly by 84.35% in the same period, though December imports dropped sharply by 44.69% compared to December 2023, indicating tightening domestic supply. In Nizamabad, a key turmeric market, prices gained 0.71% to end at 13,428.45 rupees, reflecting localized strength. Technically, the market remains in a long liquidation phase, evidenced by a 10.94% drop in open interest to 9,810 contracts. Support is now seen at 12,728, with a break below potentially testing 12,404. On the upside, resistance lies at 13,554, and a move past this could drive prices toward 14,056.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12404-14056.
* Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking after as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* This season the area under turmeric was recorded as 3.30 lakh hectares, which is 10 percent more than the area of about 3 lakh hectares in the previous season.
* # Exports continued to pick up in the second half of 2024, with shipments reaching a four-year high, surpassing 2020's volume of 1.75 lakh tonnes.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13428.45 Rupees gained by 0.71 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices edged up by 0.14% to settle at 22,085, supported by steady domestic demand and strong export activity, particularly from Gulf countries. However, the upside remained capped due to sluggish overall demand and adequate stock availability. Supply constraints continue to play a key role, with limited arrivals from Rajasthan and delayed new crop harvesting in Gujarat — postponed by about a month due to unfavorable weather. Despite this, India’s cumin production remains robust, rising to 8.6 lakh tonnes across 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares the previous year, according to Spices Board data. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of jeera, though only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season-end, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Export demand remains robust, with jeera exports rising 70.72% to 1,65,084 tonnes from April to December 2024, compared to 96,701 tonnes in the same period of 2023. December exports surged by 56.45% compared to November, reflecting strong international demand, bolstered by upcoming festive seasons. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, evidenced by a 5.15% drop in open interest to 3,369 contracts while prices gained 30 rupees. Support is at 21,790, with a dip possibly testing 21,490. Resistance is seen at 22,260, and a breakthrough could push prices toward 22,430.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21490-22430.
* Jeera gains amid price support from domestic demand, as well as export activity.
* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.
* However downside seen limited amid price support from domestic demand, as well as export activity from Gulf countries.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21596.2 Rupees dropped by -0.34 percent.

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