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Gold

Gold yesterday gained 0.62% to settle at 99,304 as weakness in the dollar and renewed geopolitical optimism supported safe-haven buying. Political developments in the U.S. added volatility, with President Donald Trump calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid fresh allegations, while prospects of a trilateral summit involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine fueled market speculation of potential diplomatic progress. On the demand front, China’s gold imports in July surged sharply to 101 metric tons, up 60.8% month-on-month and 147% year-on-year, signaling strong recovery after two months of decline. UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 to $3,600 per ounce, citing macroeconomic risks, reduced reliance on the dollar, and rising investment demand. Globally, gold demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tonnes, driven by a 78% surge in investment demand and ETF inflows, which offset a 14% slump in jewelry consumption—the lowest since 2020. India’s gold ETF holdings jumped 42% year-on-year, while assets under management nearly doubled. Physical demand in India improved slightly amid price pullbacks ahead of festival demand, though dealers still offered discounts of $6 per ounce.  Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest falling by 1.18% to 13,791 contracts. Prices are expected to find support at 98,740, with further downside likely toward 98,180 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 99,635, and a sustained move above this could lift prices toward the 99,970 mark.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 98180-99970.

* Gold gains as US Dollar weakens, Trump calls for Fed Governor Cook’s resignation

* Market mood lifts after White House summit with Trump, Zelenskyy, EU leaders boosts Ukraine peace hopes.

* US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington has held “very good talks” with China on tariffs.

Silver

Silver prices gained 1.08% to settle at 112,553, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and improving sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium. Political pressure on the Fed also added to volatility, with President Donald Trump once again criticizing Chair Jerome Powell and calling for deeper rate cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. expanded its 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to an additional 407 product categories, intensifying trade tensions, though ongoing tariff talks with China helped stabilize investor confidence. On the investment front, silver exchange-traded product (ETP) inflows surged to 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, already exceeding last year’s full-year total, with global holdings at 1.13 billion ounces—just 7% below their 2021 peak. This reflects strong investor appetite, underpinned by bullish long-term expectations. Retail investment trends were mixed, with Europe continuing its late-2024 recovery and India posting a 7% year-on-year gain, though high domestic prices could weigh on jewelry demand. From a supply-demand perspective, silver is projected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 2.17% to 16,613 while prices rose by Rs.1,208. Silver finds support at Rs.111,005, with further downside risk toward Rs.109,460 if breached. Resistance is seen at Rs.113,370, and a breakout above this could push prices toward Rs.114,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 109460-114190.

* Silver rose as softer U.S. dollar boosted demand for precious metals.

* Trump slams Fed’s Powell for high rates, urges aggressive cuts to aid housing.

* Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025, citing labor strength.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled higher by 1.41% at 5476, supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and optimism surrounding geopolitical developments. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million, well above expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw. However, stocks at the Cushing hub rose slightly, while gasoline inventories fell sharply by 2.7 million barrels, signaling stronger demand. Distillate stockpiles, on the other hand, rose by 2.3 million barrels, contrasting with forecasts for a smaller build. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports slipped in June to 6.141 million bpd, the lowest in three months, even as output rose to 9.752 million bpd. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency highlighted expectations of a faster-than-anticipated global supply increase, driven by OPEC+ production hikes and stronger non-OPEC output. In contrast, OPEC in its monthly report raised its oil demand forecast for 2026 by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd while cutting projections for non-OPEC supply growth, pointing toward a tighter market outlook.  Investor focus remains on balancing signals of tightening U.S. inventories with rising global supply projections. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -4.28% to 14,710 while prices gained 76 rupees. Crude oil now finds support at 5420, with a break below exposing 5363. On the upside, resistance is placed at 5517, and a sustained move above this could push prices toward 5557.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5363-5557.

* Crude oil rises on US inventory drop, Ukraine war talks eyed with Russia sanctions intact

* Crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels last week

* Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports slipped in June to their lowest level in three months

Natural gas

Natural gas prices eased by -0.67% to settle at 238.9, pressured by near-record output levels and comfortable storage inventories. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.1 bcfd so far in August, slightly above July’s record 107.9 bcfd, underscoring strong supply momentum. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, ample production has allowed storage injections to remain above seasonal norms. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 56 bcf injection for the week ending August 8, higher than market expectations of 53 bcf and well above typical levels for this time of year. On the demand side, forecasts of persistently hot weather through late August, coupled with rising gas flows to LNG export plants, are expected to lend support. LNG feedgas deliveries have averaged 16.2 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July, highlighting steady export demand. Looking ahead, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects both production and demand for U.S. natural gas to reach record highs in 2025, with dry gas output seen at 106.4 bcfd and consumption at 91.4 bcfd. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped sharply by -17.97% to 31,756 alongside the price decline. Natural gas now finds support at 237, with a break below exposing 235.1, while resistance is seen at 241.4. A move above this level could drive prices towards 243.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 235.1-243.9.

* Natural gas dropped amid near-record output and ample fuel in stockpiles.

* However, downside limited as forecasts show stronger demand and higher LNG exports.

* LNG feedgas flows averaged 16.2 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July.

Copper

Copper prices ended marginally lower by -0.06% at 873.4 as speculative fund selling kept the market under pressure, while both consumers and producers remained cautious ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week. Market sentiment continues to be weighed down by demand concerns, particularly from China, where the discount for the cash contract over the three-month forward widened towards $100 per tonne, its highest since February, signaling weaker near-term demand. Additionally, the Yangshan copper premium fell to $47 per tonne, down sharply from above $100 in May. On the supply side, output in Peru rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, driven by strong production from MMG’s Las Bambas mine. At the same time, Chile’s Cochilco maintained its average price forecast for 2025 and 2026 at $4.30 per pound, supported by limited concentrate availability and sustained Chinese demand. Citi also revised its 0-3 month copper price forecast higher to $9,200 per tonne from $8,800, reflecting improving demand expectations. Meanwhile, global copper balances remained in surplus. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 97,000 metric ton surplus in May compared to an 80,000 ton deficit in April, with cumulative surpluses of 272,000 tons in the first five months of the year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined -14.37% to 3,701 contracts alongside the price fall. Copper now has support at 869.6, with a break below exposing 865.8, while resistance lies at 876.1, and a move above could push prices to 878.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 865.8-878.8.

* Copper slips as funds sell, buyers await Fed Chair Powell’s speech this week.

* China demand worries widened cash-to-three-month discount near $100.

* Yangshan copper premium dropped to $47, signalling weaker Chinese appetite.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 0.45% at 265.3 as supply-side pressures supported the market despite ongoing concerns about weak demand. Chinese smelters are facing operational challenges due to overcapacity and weather-related disruptions, with heavy rains in South China impacting production. At the same time, production from major overseas mines increased by more than 12% year-on-year, while Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output and Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut, tightening global availability. Domestically, zinc ingot inventories rose to 135,400 mt, up 16,300 mt from August 11, signaling increasing stockpiles despite constrained production. On the macro front, expectations around U.S. interest rate cuts shifted, while the U.S. dollar index firmed, capping gains in base metals. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data heightened demand concerns. Industrial production in July slowed to a seven-month low, retail sales growth eased to a six-month low, and unemployment rose to its highest in four months. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market moved to a deficit of 44,100 tons in May after a surplus of 17,300 tons in April.  Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped -16.2% to 1,753 contracts while prices gained 1.2 rupees. Zinc now finds support at 264, with a break lower exposing 262.6, while resistance is seen at 266.6, and a move higher could test 267.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 262.6-267.8.

* Zinc rises as Chinese smelters face output cuts with capacity outpacing demand.

* The production of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% YoY.

* Total zinc ingot inventory in seven locations was 135,400 mt, an increase of 16,300 mt from August 11 and 6,200 mt from August 14.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower by 0.06% to settle at 248.65 as the United States widened its 50% import tariff on aluminium and related products, covering over 400 items including appliances and wind turbines. The move added to global trade uncertainties, though the downside remained limited as markets anticipate tighter supply and steady demand. On the policy front, China held its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the third straight month in August, signaling a cautious approach to stimulus, while investors closely monitor U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals for rate cuts. Geopolitical developments also influenced sentiment, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict. On the supply side, global availability remains constrained. China, the largest producer, continues to cap annual output at 45 million tonnes to manage overcapacity and environmental impact. European supply tightness persists due to sanctions on Russia. In July, global primary aluminium output rose 2.5% YoY to 6.373 million tonnes, according to IAI, while China’s production rose 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. Aluminium stocks at Japan’s major ports declined slightly to 315,400 tonnes, reflecting lower inventories. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by -11.94% to 2,398 contracts while prices slipped 0.15 rupees. Aluminium now finds support at 248.2, with further weakness likely toward 247.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at 249.3, and a breakout above could open the way to 249.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 247.6-249.8.

* Aluminium dropped after US widened the 50% import tariff on the metal and its products.

* The U.S. said it is hiking steel and aluminium tariffs on more than 400 products that include wind turbines and appliances.

* Global aluminium output rises 2.5% year on year in July – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.63% to settle at 13,426, supported by tight availability as farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals reported over the last two days. Low inflows and cautious selling are adding to firmness in prices. However, the upside may remain capped as increased acreage is anticipated this season, supported by favourable rainfall during sowing. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could rise by 15–20%, with the 2024-25 area already recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than the previous year’s 3 lakh hectares. On the production front, dry weather conditions are supporting timely planting. Meanwhile, at the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals are witnessing strong buying interest, with new stocks commanding premiums over older inventory due to their superior quality. Market activity remains buoyant, with daily volumes ranging between 1,000 and 1,200 bags, and nearly 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded. With arrivals expected to continue through June, robust market participation is likely to persist in the near term. Exports have also been encouraging, providing further strength to the market. Turmeric exports during Apr–May 2025 rose by 8.37% to 34,162.28 tonnes compared to 31,524.59 tonnes last year. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 1.05% to 17,335 contracts while prices gained 84 rupees. Turmeric is now finding support at 13,254, with further weakness possible towards 13,082. On the upside, resistance is placed at 13,644, and a breakout above this could drive prices towards 13,862 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13082-13862.

* Turmeric gains as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13675.25 Rupees dropped by -0.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures settled slightly higher by 0.23% at 19,415 on short covering, recovering from earlier losses driven by weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Traders note that comfortable supplies and subdued overseas demand continue to weigh on sentiment, with existing stock levels sufficient to meet current requirements. Farmers are reported to still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season’s end, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production prospects remain steady, with this year’s output estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, marginally lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Although global production has been affected by geopolitical and weather-related issues in key producing nations like Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and China, this has yet to translate into strong export demand for Indian jeera. China’s production estimates have been reduced from 1 lakh tonnes earlier to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria is expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, Turkey 10,000–11,000 tonnes, and Afghanistan 10,000–12,000 tonnes. On the trade front, Indian jeera exports during Apr–May 2025 fell sharply by 27.07% to 42,925.74 tonnes compared to 58,860.98 tonnes last year. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 1.33% to 5,121 contracts while prices gained 45 rupees. Jeera now finds support at 19,320, with a possible downside test of 19,220. On the upside, resistance is placed at 19,530, and a move above this could lift prices towards 19,640 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19220-19640.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19397.6 Rupees dropped by -0.36 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views