Add Lupin Ltd for the Target Rs.2,630 by Choice Institutional Equities
Key Conference Call Highlights
US Business
* Growth was driven by 15 product launches in FY26 and base business momentum, despite additional generic competition in some segments.
* Filed 10+ ANDAs in FY26 including two 505(b)(2) products, with plans to file 15+ ANDAs in FY27.
* Tolvaptan and Mirabegron to continue to be meaningful contributors in FY27, despite competition.
* The company intends to double the share of complex products in the US in the next couple of years, with a specific focus on respiratory, complex injectables and biosimilars.
* Pegfilgrastim biosimilar is expected to ramp up, from Q2FY27 and Ranibizumab biosimilar to be launched in later half of FY27 – anticipated to be a material contributor in FY28.
* The launch pipeline remains robust, with plans to introduce over 50 products in the next three years, including 10 exclusive first-to-file, four biosimilars and two to three 505(b)(2) products.
* Single-digit price erosion; offset by higher volumes.
India Business
* Respiratory and cardiac therapies significantly outperformed their respective categories, while diabetes growth accelerated strongly during the quarter.
* Chronic therapies now contribute 66% of the India portfolio, with management targeting 70% in the next five years.
* LPC successfully launched its version of Semaglutide injection (SemaNext), which already ranks second or third among branded generics in its segment.
* Plans to launch oral Semaglutide tablet later this year.
* Plans to launch 20+ products in FY27.
* Targeting 1.2–1.3x IPM outperformance for India business.
Other Markets
* The acquisition of VISUfarma expands Lupin's Europe footprint into Italy and Spain and is expected to drive double-digit growth in the ophthalmology segment.
* Emerging markets, led by Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines, posted strong growth; Brazil witnessed sharp momentum post its turnaround.
* The company is establishing a strong presence in the metabolic space in emerging markets, with planned launches of Empagliflozin and Semaglutide in Brazil and South Africa.
Outlook
* For FY27, the company expects high single-digit revenue growth, with EBITDA margin projected to be around 25%.
* The FY27 margin guidance factors in anticipated competition for Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, increased R&D expenditure and potential inflationary pressures from freight and raw material costs.
* R&D spend for FY27 to remain at ~8% of revenue.
* The company continues to evaluate specialty-focussed acquisitions, particularly in ophthalmology, pulmonology and rare neuro therapies.
For Detailed Report With Disclaimer Visit. https://choicebroking.in/disclaimer
SEBI Registration no.: INZ 000160131
