Add Lupin Ltd For Target Rs. 2,630 by Choice Institutional Equities Ltd
Launch Pipeline and Diversified Growth to Support Long-term Momentum
We continue to maintain a positive view on LPC, supported by a robust launch pipeline across key markets. The US and India are expected to remain the primary growth drivers, with over 50 launches planned in the US, including FTF opportunities and Biosimilars. In India, continued expansion in chronic therapies, coupled with a pipeline of over 80 launches in the next five years, is anticipated to sustain above-market growth. The VISUfarma integration is progressing as planned and shall drive growth in other developed markets, while Emerging Markets are projected to benefit from the scale-up of recent launches. We expect EBITDA margin to remain in the 25–27% range in FY26-29E. We revise our FY27E earnings estimate downwards by 2.7%, while increasing our FY28E estimate by 7.6% to reflect an improved US revenue outlook. We maintain our target price of INR 2,630 and reiterate our ‘ADD’ rating
Strong YoY Growth across all Metrics
* Revenue grew 32.0% YoY / 10.7% QoQ to INR 82,769 Mn (vs. CIE estimate: INR 79,951 Mn).
* EBITDA grew 41.8% YoY / (1.5)% QoQ to INR 24,495 Mn; margin expanded 204 bps YoY / contracted 366 bps QoQ to 29.6% (vs. CIE estimate: 29.0%).
* Reported PAT grew 16.1% YoY / (3.1)% QoQ to INR 14,150 Mn (vs. CIE estimate: INR 14,878 Mn)
Robust Launch Pipeline Reinforces North America Growth Outlook
North America delivered another quarter of strong YoY growth. While we expect growth to moderate in FY27E, we believe this primarily reflects the loss of exclusivity for key products, such as Tolvaptan and Mirabegron, rather than any weakness in underlying demand. We believe the company's robust pipeline of more than 50 launches in the next three years will be the key growth driver. This includes first-to-file (FTF) opportunities, 505(b)(2) products and Biosimilars. Key launches expected in H2FY27 include Pegfilgrastim (oncology), Fluticasone (respiratory), Dalbavancin (antibiotic) and the recently launched Sugammadex (anesthetic). We anticipate North America to remain a key contributor to both revenue growth and margin expansion.
India and Emerging Markets Sustain Non-US Growth
LPC's non-US business continues to deliver a healthy growth, with India expected to remain the largest contributor. We expect the India business to continue outperforming the IPM, supported by expanding presence in chronic therapies and a pipeline of more than 80 launches over the next five years. Growth in Emerging Markets is expected to be driven primarily by Brazil, following the successful launch of Dapagliflozin and South Africa, where Semaglutide is planned for launch by the end of FY27. In other developed markets, growth is expected to be supported by the VISUfarma acquisition alongside continued momentum in complex generics.
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