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3rd party volume offsets weakness in long-term volume

Reported EBITDA beat estimates at INR15.3bn (PLe: INR13.2bn; BBGe: INR12.2bn), up 32.1% YoY, led by INR3.0bn trading gain and INR1.9bn inventory gain. PAT stood at INR11.3bn (PLe: INR9.4bn; BBGe: INR8.7bn), down 15.3% QoQ but up 33.2% YoY. Total volumes declined 5.5%/6.0% QoQ/YoY to 207TBtu, with the mix skewed towards 3rd party volumes amid Qatar force majeure. As per PLNG, Dahej utilization stood at 65.6% on expanded capacity of 22.5mmtpa, while Kochi utilization was 23.3% in Q1FY27. Management expects the higher contribution from 3rd party volumes to continue in Q2FY27. Accordingly, we have increased FY27E 3rd party volume mix higher. Based on Q1FY27 performance, we have lowered FY27E utilization at Dahej/Kochi to 68%/24% (previous: 71%/30%), (Dahej utilization based on expanded capacity of 22.5mmtpa). We expect utilization to improve to 73%/30% in FY28E as volumes normalize. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ with a revised TP of INR297 (earlier: INR300), based on 10x FY28E EPS

Quarterly performance:

Volume decreased ~6.0% QoQ/YoY to 207Tbtu. 3rd party volumes increased sharply to 175Tbtu vs 125/102Tbtu in Q4FY26/Q1FY26. Long term volumes declined 82.9%/88.6% QoQ/YoY to 12.0Tbtu as Qatar force majeure remains in place since March’26 due to West Asia war. Reported EBITDA came in above estimates at INR15.3bn (PLe: INR13.2bn; BBGe: INR12.2bn), up 33.1% YoY but down 17.9% QoQ led by trading and inventory gains of INR3.0bn/1.9bn respectively. Reported PAT came in above estimates at INR11.3bn (PLe: INR9.4bn; BBGe: INR8.7bn), declining 15.3% QoQ but increasing 33.2% YoY, aided by higher EBITDA and lower D&A and interest expenses.

Dahej Volumes softens:

Dahej’s long-term regas volumes declined sharply to 12TBtu from 70TBtu in Q4FY26 and 105TBtu in Q1FY26, with the shortfall offset by higher 3rdparty volumes of 175TBtu vs 125/102TBtu in Q4FY26/Q1FY26 as offtakers diversified supply sources. Consequently, total Dahej volumes stood at 192TBtu vs 201/207.1TBtu QoQ/YoY. Capacity utilization stood at 65.6% on expanded capacity of 22.5mmtpa vs 90%/92% QoQ/YoY, respectively, both based on 17.5mmtpa capacity.

Kochi volume flat YoY:

Long-term regas volumes declined marginally to 14TBtu vs 16TBtu in Q4FY26, while 3rdparty volumes stood at 1TBtu vs 2TBtu in Q4FY26. Capacity utilization improved to 23.3% in Q1FY27 vs ~20% QoQ. Management expects mechanical completion of the Kochi-Bangalore pipeline by end-Q2FY27, which should support higher terminal throughput.

Qatar LNG Force Majeure:

Qatar Energy declared Force Majeure from 28th Feb’26 to 30th June’26, due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in no LNG loading in Q1FY27. 1 stranded Qatar cargo was subsequently delivered to Dahej on 19thJune’26.

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