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 A comprehensive Opinion Poll conducted by ABP News and CVoter ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections reveals intriguing insights from the political landscape of India, painting a vivid picture of the electoral prospects for major political alliances. The latest opinion poll, a significant indicator ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, suggests a projected victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with a considerable majority. The data portrays an intricate picture of voter trends, party strengths, and the impact of alliances across India.

Key Highlights from the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll

·         The NDA is projected to secure a commanding lead with a vote share of 45.9% and an estimated 366 seats in the Lok Sabha.

·         The I.N.D.I.A bloc together, including the UPA, is expected to claim a 39% vote share and 156 seats, according to the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll.

·         The poll suggests a considerable swing in votes since the 2019 Lok Sabha results, with the BJP seeing a positive swing of 3.08%, and the I.N.D.I.A. (UPA in 2019) a rise of 2.5%.

State-Wise Projections

·         Uttar Pradesh data in the ABP News-CVoter survey shows the NDA gaining 74 out of 80 seats, with a significant increase in the vote share compared to the last elections.

• Tamil Nadu appears to remain a stronghold for UPA allies, with the DMK + projected to win 39 seats.
• According to the survey, in West Bengal the BJP is projected to repeat its 2019 performance, with an anticipated 19 seats, which is one seat more than the last time.
• In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to influence the seat share significantly, with the poll projecting 6 seats for the party.
• In Maharashtra, a key battleground state, the NDA is projected to secure 28 seats, while its opposition, the UPA, is projected to get 20 seats, highlighting a competitive electoral fight.
• Regional parties continue to maintain their influence in states such as West Bengal, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh, highlighting the pivotal role of regional aspirations in Indian politics. The ruling Trinamool Congress is projected to win 23 seats in Bengal, while the BJD in Odisha, which is contesting as an NDA constituent, could win 11 seats. In Andhra Pradesh, NDA partners TDP and JSP are likely to clinch 17 seats together, leaving 3 for the BJP.

Short Of ‘Mission 400’, But NDA Looks at Comfortable Majority

The ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll predicts a comfortable majority for NDA in the Lok Sabha, with a projected 366 seats out of 543. With a vote share of 45.9%, combined with the BJP's dominant 40.4% vote share, the alliance is poised to not only retain but also strengthen its position compared to the last election. The BJP is projected to secure a significant portion of the NDA's overall success, with its vote share increasing by 3.08% from the previous election. This uptick in voter support positions the BJP as the single largest party by a substantial margin.

Marginal Growth in Congress Tally

The Congress party, leading the I.N.D.I.A bloc, shows marginal growth in its prospects. The party's vote share is projected to rise slightly from 19.5% in 2019 to 20% in 2024, and its seat count from 52 to 59. The party faces challenges in translating its vote share into a significant number of seats. Its performance is strong in certain states like Tamil Nadu, due to alliances with strong regional parties like the DMK, but nationally it struggles to compete with the BJP's appeal.

The ABP News-CVoter data suggests that the BJP's stronghold remains firm, and the INC's improvements are not enough for a significant turnaround. The final election results, however, will depend on campaign effectiveness, coalition dynamics, and the political climate closer to the elections.

Methodology

The survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters.

Sample size: 41,762

Survey date: February 1 to March 10, 2024

LS seats covered: 543

Margin Of Error (regional level): .+_/_- 5%

Confidence Level: 95%

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