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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 47839 amid concerns over a recovery in the U.S. economy after a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Yields on the longest-dated U.S. benchmark bond have topped 2 percent for the first time in close to a year amid rising expectations for inflation. "The U.S. does have fiscal space to take additional relief and support measures," IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said as Democrats moved forward with a $1.9 trillion relief plan by approving a budget outline for the proposal. President Joe Biden says he could deliver the aid package in the coming weeks without Republican support. Physical gold demand picked up in China ahead of the Lunar New Year festival, while Indian retail buyers cheered a sharp dip in domestic rates. Singapore dealers, meanwhile, flagged a possible supply crunch fuelled by a surge in interest for silver. Chinese dealers charged premiums of $0.50-$5 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices. Indian premiums pushed to a six-month peak of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices. The SPDR Gold Trust , the largest gold-back ETF, saw its highest inflows since Jan. 15, on Feb. 4. But for the week, gold has shed 2.2% so far, which would be its biggest decline since the week ended Jan. 8. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.57% to settled at 12789 while prices up 583 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47341 and below same could see a test of 46844 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48146, a move above could see prices testing 48454.

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46844-48454.

* Gold prices gained amid concerns over a recovery in the U.S. economy after a weaker-than-expected jobs report.

* President Joe Biden says he could deliver the aid package in the coming weeks without Republican support.

*10-year Treasury yields hover near highest since March

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.96% at 70084 as investor focus returned to prospects of a substantial U.S. stimulus package, which bolstered bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge and offset pressure from a resultant rally in equities and a firmer dollar. President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress cleared the path for their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package as lawmakers approved a budget outline that will allow them to muscle Biden's plan through in the coming weeks without Republican support. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicted the relief plan could generate enough growth to restore full employment by next year. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she believes the final Covid-19 relief legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire. "There's simply nothing more important than getting the resources we need to vaccinate people as soon and as quickly as possible," Biden said shortly after the jobs report was released. Australia's Perth Mint said its January silver coin sales jumped 23.5% from the previous month, boosted by a robust demand for the white metal spurred by a social media-led buying spree that commenced towards the end of the month. The refiner sold more than 1.1 million troy ounces of silver last month, its highest since October. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.25% to settled at 13484 while prices up 1346 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68884 and below same could see a test of 67685 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70818, a move above could see prices testing 71553.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 67685-71553.

* Silver rose as investor focus returned to prospects of a substantial U.S. stimulus package, which bolstered bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge

* President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress cleared the path for their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicted the relief plan could generate enough growth to restore full employment by next year.

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.17% at 4231 boosted by supply cuts among key producers and hopes for further U.S. economic stimulus measures to boost demand. Brent crude prices are approaching $60 a barrel, a one-year high, driven in large part by OPEC+ cuts that are set to keep the oil market in deficit this year. The coronovirus pandemic ravaged oil demand as economies around the world had to shut down for extended periods of time to curb the spread of the virus. Markets were encouraged by stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength in manufacturing, and hopes for swift approval by lawmakers of President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, extended its current oil output policy at a meeting on Wednesday, a sign that producers are happy that their deep supply cuts are draining inventories despite an uncertain outlook for a recovery in demand as the coronavirus pandemic lingers. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to February 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 6,656 contracts to 354,149 during the period. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.48% to settled at 3198 while prices up 90 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4179 and below same could see a test of 4127 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4264, a move above could see prices testing 4297.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4127-4297.

* Crude oil gains boosted by supply cuts among key producers and hopes for further U.S. economic stimulus measures to boost demand.

* Brent near $60 as OPEC+ cuts tighten oil market

* Oil has rallied from historic lows hit last year, thanks to record OPEC+ output cuts that the group is starting to unwind.

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.45% at 210.6 amid forecasts for a little less heating demand this week than previously expected. In the spot market, gas prices across North America soared as homes and businesses cranked up their heaters to escape the blast of arctic air and snow moving from Canada to the U.S. Midwest. Cold forecasts prompted speculators last week to boost their net long positions on the New York Mercantile (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchanges to their highest since October 2020 as they cut their NYMEX short positions to the lowest since April 2019. That drove speculative open interest on the NYMEX to its lowest since November 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.0 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With much colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would jump from 132.6 bcfd this week to 152.6 bcfd next week. Stockpiles have remained above the five-year (2016-2020) average since the start of 2020 and were still 7.9% above that average at the end of last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.97% to settled at 6809 while prices down -5.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 206.3 and below same could see a test of 202 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.3, a move above could see prices testing 222. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202-222.

* Natural gas prices dropped amid forecasts for a little less heating demand this week than previously expected.

* Gas prices across North America soared as homes and businesses cranked up their heaters to escape the blast of arctic air and snow moving from Canada to the U.S. Midwest.

* Speculators last week to boost their net long positions to their highest since October 2020 as they cut  short positions to the lowest since April 2019.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 620.15 as optimism around a U.S. stimulus raised hopes of better demand for metals and a recovery in the world's biggest economy. Prices gained supported from low level of inventories and hopes of further U.S. stimulus that could boost demand for the red metal. But Chinese markets will remain closed from Feb. 11-17 for Lunar New Year holidays, potentially slowing demand for industrial metals. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.0 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. U.S. data showed private payrolls rebounding more than expected in January, while service activities also improved strongly, pointing to signs of a recovery in the world's biggest economy. Adding to the optimism, the U.S. Congress pushed ahead with a maneuver to pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. The plan is still pending a vote at the Senate. In China, a central bank official said the People's Bank of China will keep liquidity reasonably ample, easing money supply worries in the world's top metals consumer. LME cash copper was at a $14.50-a-tonne premium over the three-month contract , the highest since September 2020, indicating tight nearby supplies. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.26% to settled at 3630 while prices up 10.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 612.5 and below same could see a test of 604.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 624.4, a move above could see prices testing 628.6.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 604.8-628.6.

* Copper prices rose as optimism around a U.S. stimulus raised hopes of better demand for metals and a recovery in the world's biggest economy.

* Prices gained supported from low level of inventories and hopes of further U.S. stimulus that could boost demand 

* LME cash copper was at a $14.50-a-tonne premium over the three-month contract , the highest since September 2020, indicating tight nearby supplies.

Zinc     

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 210.85 as social stocks began to pile up due to the stagnation of pre-holiday consumption. However downside seen limited as the policy of encouraging people to stay where they work for the Spring Festival in order to reduce the possibility of being infected with COVID-19 is likely to boost zinc consumption. China's refined zinc output stood at 542,000 mt in January, falling 11,200 mt or down 2.02% on month and up 2.6% on year. Zinc smelters produced 78,600 mt of zinc alloy in January, basically flat from the previous month. Among them, mineral zinc output stood at 435,000 mt in January. Survey showed that domestic refined zinc output decreased slightly more than expectations in January. The decline in domestic TCs for 50-grade zinc concentrates slowed in January. The main reason was that zinc prices fell from a high level and smelters' profits shrank severely. Therefore, zinc smelters in some areas lowered their production plans, while smelters in Hunan stopped production during the CNY ahead of schedule. The reduction is mainly concentrated in the routine maintenance of domestic smelters. China's refined zinc output is expected to decrease 64,000 mt to 547,200 mt in January as the number of natural monthly days in February decreased by 3 days from the previous month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.66% to settled at 1785 while prices down -1.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 209.8 and below same could see a test of 208.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.7, a move above could see prices testing 214.5.

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 208.7-214.5.

* Zinc prices dropped as social stocks began to pile up due to the stagnation of pre-holiday consumption

* China's refined zinc output stood at 542,000 mt in January, falling 11,200 mt or down 2.02% on month and up 2.6% on year.

* Survey showed that domestic refined zinc output decreased slightly more than expectations in January.

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 1324.4 as downstream consumption of stainless steel was better than expected, supporting demand for nickel. As stainless steel prices increased, high-grade NPI prices also improved. In addition, consumption of nickel sulphate was strong as companies in the new energy sector brought forward their procurements. The report showed U.S. employment growth rebounded less than expected in January and job losses the prior month were deeper than initially thought, strengthening the argument for additional relief money to aid the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. China’s NPI output rose 3.27% from December to 38,600 mt Ni in January. This included 31,600 mt Ni of high-grade NPI, up 5.74% on the month, and 7,000 mt Ni of low-grade NPI, down 6.58% month on month. Strong demand from steel makers and sufficient raw materials inventories encouraged a large-scale NPI plant in east China to ramp up production, which contributed to the sharp rise in high-grade NPI output in January. China’s refined nickel output shrank 11.63% from December and 10.17% from a year earlier, to 13,000 mt in January. Gansu smelter and Xinjiang smelter were still in operation in January, producing 12,000 mt and 981 mt of refined nickel respectively, while other smelters continued to suspend their refined nickel production lines, putting raw materials into nickel sulphate production. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.64% to settled at 1697 while prices up 8.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1315.7 and below same could see a test of 1307.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1329.3, a move above could see prices testing 1334.3.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1307.1-1334.3.

* Nickel gains as downstream consumption of stainless steel was better than expected, supporting demand for nickel.

* China’s refined nickel output shrank 11.63% on the month to 13,000 mt in January

* China’s NPI output rose 3.27% month on month to 38,600 mt Ni in January

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 164.75 on stimulus hopes and vaccine roll-outs. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, in the first employment report of the Biden administration. U.S. employment growth rebounded less than expected in January and job losses the prior month were deeper than initially thought, strengthening the argument for additional relief money to aid the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. President Joe Biden cited the report as he and his Democratic allies pushed ahead with steps toward their $1.9 billion COVID-19 relief package, including a vote in the Senate and another expected in the House. The moves aim to secure the spending before special unemployment benefits expire on March 15. Trades were quiet in the spot market as market participants started the Chinese New Year holiday. On the coronavirus front, more contagious variants continue to spread throughout the U.S. On Friday Virginia health officials reported the state’s first case of the strain first identified in South Africa. On Sunday South Africa halted distribution of AstraZeneca’s vaccine given its minimal efficacy against the strain first identified in the country. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.37% to settled at 813 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 163.9 and below same could see a test of 162.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 165.5, a move above could see prices testing 166.1.

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 162.9-166.1.

*  Aluminium prices remained supported on stimulus hopes and vaccine roll-outs.

* The U.S. Labor Department reported that the U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%

*  U.S. employment growth rebounded less than expected in January and job losses the prior month were deeper than initially thought.

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 956.3 on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1095.1 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.76% to settled at 79 while prices up 2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 952 and below same could see a test of 947.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 961.9, a move above could see prices testing 967.4.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 947.6-967.4.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1095.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained  on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean     

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 4715 as prices seen supported following improved demand from China, dry weather in Brazil, slower than expected pace of harvest in the US due to crop damage. Rising export demand for Soymeal and healthy domestic demand for Soy oil against lower mandi arrivals supported positive market sentiments. Arrival of new season crop has started. However, the pace of arrival is slower than expected. SOPA slashed down Soybean production estimates for 2020-21 season by 15% to 104.55 lakh tonnes from its first advance estimates of 122.47 lakh tonnes released on 21 August 2020 based on the survey conducted by their teams at various locations between 1-7 October 2020. Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2020-21 marketing year (February 2021 - January 2022) has made the slowest progress in a decade as unrelenting rains hampered field activities. Soybean farmers in the South American nation had been able to harvest only 1.9% of the projected acreage as of Jan. 28, compared with 8.9% last year. As per USDA report global soybean production is estimated to increase by 8% to 3621 lakh tonnes, while world soybean consumption is also expected to increase by 4% to 3697 Lakh tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4827 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.63% to settled at 201525 while prices up 23 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4682 and below same could see a test of 4649 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4747, a move above could see prices testing 4779.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4649-4779.

* Soyabean gained as prices seen supported following improved demand from and US crop damage

* Arrival of new season crop has started, however the pace of arrival is slower than expected.

* Brazilian soybean harvest at slowest pace in a decade on incessant rains

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4827 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 1113.4 amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1115 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.66% to settled at 30775 while prices up 6.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1107 and below same could see a test of 1102 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1117, a move above could see prices testing 1122.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1102-1122.

* Ref soyoil prices gained as amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. 

* Government of India, lowered basic import duty on soybean oil to 15% from 35%. 

* Export of Oilmeals Doubled in December 2020

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1115 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil     

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 1001 supported by expectations of weak January stocks and lower production. Investors are now eyeing official January supply and demand data, as well as February 1-10 export data, scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of January likely ticked up for the first time in four months, as a deep plunge in exports offset output which tumbled to near 5-year low. Stockpiles in the world's second largest producer is seen rebounding 1.75% from the previous month to 1.29 million tonnes. Malaysia's crude palm oil production, which has been suffering from flooding in parts of Malaysia and an acute labour shortage, is forecast to nosedive 13% to 1.16 million tonnes, its lowest since February 2016. End-January inventories likely rebounded 1.8% from the previous month to 1.29 million tonnes, as a deep plunge in exports offset output. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season rose to 3.38 million tonnes by Jan. 31, compared with 3.29 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 8.9 Rupees to end at 995.2 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.18% to settled at 6009 while prices up 12.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 990.9 and below same could see a test of 980.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1007.2, a move above could see prices testing 1013.5.

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 980.9-1013.5.

* Crude palm oil rose supported by expectations of weak January stocks and lower production.

* Malaysia end-Jan palm oil stocks seen rebounding as exports, output plunge

* Investors are now eyeing official January supply and demand data, as well as February 1-10 export data, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 8.9 Rupees to end at 995.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 5165 as crop is delayed due to cold over northern India. New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis. However upside seen limited as production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare, which is significantly higher than last year's sowing area of 69.08 lakh hectare and the normal average area of 59.44 lakh hectare. In Rajasthan, due to excess moisture in the new crop, milling is not happening because for adulteration millers nor having old mustard crop. Earlier, the area under mustard was 69.17 lakh hectare in 2018-19 season, 67.04 lakh hectare in 2017-18, 70.67 lakh hectare in 2016-17 and 64.61 lakh hectare in 2015-16. Mustard crop is in good condition in most of the major producing states and its average yield rate and quality are expected to improve. As a result, the total production of mustard can reach a new record level. The chairman of a leading industry organization has estimated the gross production to reach 100 lakh tonnes, while the possibility of production is generally 80–90 lakh tonnes. The government (Ministry of Agriculture) has set a target of producing 125 lakh tonnes of mustard, but there is doubt about its achievement. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.26% to settled at while prices up 59 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5116 and below same could see a test of 5068 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5206, a move above could see prices testing 5248.

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5068-5248.

* Mustard seed prices gained as crop is delayed due to cold over northern India.

* New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis.

*  Production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3% at 7136 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6583.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.15% to settled at 8825 while prices up 208 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6956 and below same could see a test of 6776 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7260, a move above could see prices testing 7384.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6776-7384.

* Turmeric prices gained as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices

* The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.

* But ap art from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6583.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 13160 as arrivals of cumin have started in various mandis of Gujarat's major producing regions, but now its quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more. The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up. The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare, but its 15.50 percent more than 4.06 lakh hectare as per Five Year Average Area. The production area of cumin in Rajasthan has increased from 6.41 lakh hectare to 6.85 lakh hectare. The weather condition is good this time in both the provinces of Gujarat and Rajasthan and till now the crop has not faced any natural disaster. The average yield rate of cumin may increase if the weather is favorable in February-March. Prices have remained largely stable due to better domestic and export demand in cumin. The total production of cumin is likely to be around last year. An average daily arrival of 10-20 bags of new cumin seeds and 30-40 bags of new fennel is coming in Unjha Mandi. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12938.45 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.25% to settled at 1188 while prices up 70 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13060 and below same could see a test of 12955 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13240, a move above could see prices testing 13315.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 12955-13315.

* Jeera prices gained as arrivals quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more.

* The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up.

* The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12938.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 21360 as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. CAI said India's imposition of 10% duty on cotton imports is unlikely to dent buying. The 10% import duty imposed by the world's biggest cotton producer was announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget speech. Indian textile mills have already imported 600,000 bales of cotton in the 2020/21 marketing year that started on Oct. 1, with a further 800,000 bales likely to be sourced from outside the country during the rest of the season, Ganatra said. The country is expected to produce 36 million bales in the current marketing year, against local demand of 33 million bales, though supply of extra long staple cotton is negligible, the CAI says. A committee on cotton production and consumption of the Central Textile Ministry has revised the data of cotton crop. According to the committee, production of 371 lakh bales is estimated in 2020-21. Earlier it was estimated to produce 358.50 lakh bales. Last year, in 2019-20, production of 365 lakh bales was done. According to the latest estimates, in Gujarat, the highest cotton project of 90.5 lakh bales has been done in 2020-21. Production per hectare is also high in Gujarat. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -20 Rupees to end at 21130 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.26% to settled at 6336 while prices down -30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21280 and below same could see a test of 21200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21470, a move above could see prices testing 21580.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21200-21580.

* Cotton prices dropped as cotton procurement by the CCI has almost come to a stop

* CAI said India's imposition of 10% duty on cotton imports is unlikely to dent buying. 

* Production of 371 lakh bales is estimated in 2020-21. Earlier it was estimated to produce 358.50 lakh bales.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -20 Rupees to end at 21130 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 4637 as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4582.6 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.19% to settled at while prices down -30 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4604 and below same could see a test of 4570 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4659, a move above could see prices testing 4680. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4570-4680.

* Chana dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states.

* Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure.

* In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4582.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com