Weekly Oulook : Gold, Silver, Crudeoil, Copper, USDINR & NCDEX Jeera By Anuj Gupta, IIFL Securities
Last week as expected we saw that gold and silver increased sharply. MCX Gold increased by 1.93% and closed at 60515 levels and made a new high of 61181 levels. MCX Silver also increased sharply by 3.25% and closed at 74554 levels. The trend of Gold and Silver are positive and we are expecting the same trend ahead.
Technically Gold has a strong support at 60000 / 59500 ($2000 / $1970) levels while resistance at 61000 / 61500 ($2050 / $2075) levels. Silver has a strong support at 73000 / 71000 ($23 / $22) levels while resistance at 75500 / 77000 ($26/$27) levels.
Weakness in dollar and buying of central banks coupled with the expectation of dovish stance by the central banks are the major factors for the current rally in gold and silver. Safe haven demand is also playing an important role to support the rally. We are expecting that gold and silver may trade further northward in the coming week. Gold may test $1950 to $1960 level and silver may test $26 to $27 levels very soon.
Crude Oil
Last week as expected mcx crude oil prices were again increased sharply on the back of production cut by the opec plus members. Crude oil prices increased sharply by 6.48% and closed at 6594 levels. The fundamental factors are indicating positive. Geopolitical tension and matters of production cut by open plus members are playing an important role for the positive trend of crude oil.
Technically the trend of crude oil is positive. Crude oil has an immediate support at 6300 / 6100 ($82 / $80) levels while resistance at 6800 / 7000 ($87 / $90) levels. We are expecting that Brent may test $87 to $90 very soon.
Copper
We noticed a range bound momentum in the base metals. Copper prices corrected by 1.13% and closed at 770.50 levels, however we noticed a sharp recovery from the lower levels as it made a low of 758.70 in the last week. We saw fresh demand for base metals on the lower levels. Technically the trend of copper is still positive. We are expecting that copper and other base metals may trade with positive bias in the coming week.
Technically copper has a strong support at 755 / 740 levels while resistance at 780 / 790 levels. It may test 780 levels very soon.
USDINR
As expected, the rupee appreciated by 0.52% and closed at 81.75 levels. The weakness in the dollar is supportive for the rupee. Technically the trend of the dollar is weak. We are expecting that it may trade again towards the lower side in the coming week.
It has a strong support at 81.40 / 81 levels, while resistance at 82.30 / 82.80 levels. Overall trend of the dollar is weak and it may test 100 to 90 levels very soon. This will impact all other currencies which may appreciate against the dollar.
NCDEX Jeera
On the back of strong demand and lower supplies we noticed again a positive week in NCDEX Jeera. It increased by 4.27% and closed at 37245 levels. Good Export demand and low yield are supportive for the Jeera prices. The change in the weather situation was another reason for the rally in the NCDEX Jeera. Fundamentals are strong and we are expecting it may trade further higher in the coming time.
Technically the trend of NCDEX Jeera is positive as it is making higher top and higher bottom formation. It has a strong support at 35000 / 32000 and resistance at 39000 / 42000 levels. We are expecting that it may test 40000 / 42000 levels very soon.
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