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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee Comments as of 23 February 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

The downside momentum turned out to be so strong yesterday that the Nifty had to slip all the way to 17580,which we had marked down yesterday to prompt a pause. We are back again with only the 200 DMA at 17362 separating us from a collapse. This fear, and a rise in VIX, along with sharply oversold oscillators may ease the downside momentum a bit. A close above 17660 may encourage us to abandon downside plays for the day, though a vertical bounce is not expected. Deep down, first major support beyond the 200DMA is at 17050, but we feel that range expansion on the downside may have to wait.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 17700 for Calls and 17400 for Puts in weekly and at 17700 for Calls and 17400 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 30.50%, increased future index shorts by 36.18% and in index options by 20.93% in Call longs, 17.21% in Call short, 25.97% in Put longs and 15.91% in Put shorts.

USD-INR outlook:

Inability to push much beyond 82.90 yesterday, is a signal that the anticipated breakout move initially aiming 83.10 is less likely now. Downside prospects have not matured as yet either, but a slippage past 82.73 will encourage us to consider that now.  

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