Evening Track : Renewed Geopolitical uncertainty fuels commodities price by Kotak Securities Ltd
Comex Gold futures continue to trade positive for the fourth day about $2,670 an ounce, driven by increased haven demand and expectations of further US interest rate cuts. Renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the recent deployment of British cruise missiles by Kyiv, have contributed to heightened uncertainty, boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. On the domestic front, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins advocated for additional rate cuts while emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to avoid policy missteps. Lower interest rates typically favor gold, which offers no interest yield.
WTI Crude Oil surged over 1% to trade above $69.90 a barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offset an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories. Ukraine's intensified use of Western-supplied long-range weapons on Russian military targets, following a recent shift in Russia's nuclear doctrine, heightened market anxiety. Simultaneously, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose for the third consecutive week, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated.
LME Copper continue to trade positive for the fifth consecutive day near $9,110 per ton buoyed by a weakening US dollar and emerging signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy. It poised for their longest streak of daily gains since July. Meanwhile, China's copper spot treatment and refining charges have shown signs of recovery. Smelters have reduced production after a period of rapid expansion. Additionally, copper inventories in China have been decreasing, currently below August levels and equivalent to approximately seven days' worth of supply.
European natural gas surged by 2.9% as it climb to a one-year high on Thursday, fueled by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. This geopolitical uncertainty poses a significant risk to the region's energy supply. The volatile market, influenced by extreme weather conditions and potential disruptions to Russian gas flows, has kept traders on edge. The upcoming expiration of a crucial pipeline transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia adds to the market's nervousness. While current gas flows through Ukraine remain stable, the recent cutoff of Russian gas to OMV AG and the intensification of the conflict raise concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and home resales to provide further market direction.
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Quote on Market Wrap Up by Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd