IGI Logo

Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to extend its rebound towards $2695 amid safe haven buying following escalating geopolitical tension between Russian and Ukraine. Further, expectation of weak economic numbers from US could bring correction in the dollar and support bullions to trade higher. Meanwhile, diminishing probability of 25 bps interest rate cut by the Fed in December could restrict its upside. Now, focus will remain on the speeches from Fed members, as it could bring more clarity on interest rate outlook.

* Spot gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. Now its is expected to retrace 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent decline at $2696. MCX Gold December is expected to rise towards 77,200 as long as it holds above 50 day EMA at 76,000.

* Spot Silver is likely to hold the support of 100 day EMA at $30.60 and rise towards $31.50. MCX Silver is expected to move towards 91,500, as long as it holds abobve 89,000.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected face stiff resistance and move lower amid forecast of contraction in the global manufacturing activities. Further, demand uncertainty from China would also weigh on the metal. Meanwhile, depleting inventory levels and improved premiums along with TC charges could provide some support to the base metals.

* MCX Copper November is expected to face the hurdle near 830 and move lower towards 814. Below 814 it would weaken further towards 805.

* MCX Aluminum Nov is expected move in a tight range of 242 and 246. Only a move above 246 it would rise towards 248.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold the support near $68.50 and rise towards $72 amid escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine. Further, increasing demand of crude oil products would also support the oil prices to stay higher. Premiums of oil byproducts has hit multi month high indicating improved demand. Meanwhile, demand concerns from China would limit its upside.

* On the data front, closer of OI in the ATM and OTM call strike indicates an upward bias. MCX Crude oil December is likely to hold the support near 5800 and rise towards 6000. Only above 6000 it would rise towards 6100. Formation of bullish engulfing pattern indicates prices to hold firm above 5800.

* Natural gas November is expected to hold above 270 and move higher towards 290. Forecast of colder US weather and depleting inventory levels would provide support to price.

https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631