View on GDP data: This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
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Perspective on GDP data By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist Emkay Global Financial Services
“As per the NSO’s advance estimates, FY23GDP is likely to grow at 7% as against 8.7% in FY22. That is largely in line ,albeit slightly lower than a 6.8% GDP expectations of RBI. This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% from the highs of 9.7% in H1FY23, partly also helped by base effect. The advance estimates will have a short shelf life -- mostly based on extrapolation of indicators available until November. The exercise nonetheless is done to help the government to gauge the growth outlook and tax buoyancy for budget. NSO will release the revised estimate of annual national accounts of last three years by January-end, which could change the base for FY23 estimates. Meanwhile the second advance estimate for FY23 and 3QF23 print due in end-February will probably entail more factual data inputs.”
