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USDINR

Technical Outlook on Rupee

• USDINR pair on the weekly chart making lower lows and lower highs. On the daily chart pair has closed below the 20 and 50 SMA. Momentum indicators RSI has given negative confirming bearish movement.

• If pair break below 81.45 we could see prices heading towards 80.70 and 80 on the downside . On the other hand, break above 82 would see pair testing 82.50 and 83 on the upside.

Fundamental news on USDINR

• Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

•Private sector firms in the US registered a further decline in output at the start of 2023. The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.6 in January, up from 45.0 at the end of 2022. The contraction in activity was solid overall, but the slowest since last October.

•In the week ending January 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 186,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 190,000 to 192,000.

EURINR

• EURINR pair on the weekly chart making higher highs and higher lows . On the daily chart pair have closed above 20 and 50 SMA denoting bullish trend

• Momentum indicators RSI has given a positive cross over confirming the bullish momentum.

• From the below observation we can conclude that if prices break above 89.40 pair could test 90.40 and 91on the upside . On the other hand break below 88.20 could see pair testing 89 and 90 on the upside.

Fundamental news on EURINR

• The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose for a third consecutive month in January, up from 49.3 in December to 50.2 in January, breaking above the 50.0 no-change level to thereby indicate the first expansion of business activity albeit only marginal since last June.

• The headline S&P Global Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index came in at 49.7 in January, up from December’s 49.0. Although in sub-50 contraction territory for a seventh straight month, the latest reading was the highest in this sequence and marked the third successive monthly rise in the index.

• The headline Flash France PMI Composite Output Index was little-changed from December’s 49.1 at the start of 2023, edging down fractionally to 49.0. Nevertheless, the headline figure from the ‘flash’ survey signalled a third successive month of falling business activity across France’s private sector economy

GBPINR

• GBPINR pair on the weekly char made four week high. On the daily chart pair closed above the 20 SMA and 50 SMA denoting bullish momentum.

• Momentum indicators RSI has given a positive crossover denoting confirming the bullish momentum.

• From the below observation we can conclude that if prices break above 101 pair could test 101.90 and 102.65 on the upside . On the other hand break below 100.45 could see pair testing 99.50 and 99 on the downside.

Fundamental news on GBPINR

• The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index registered 47.8 in January, down from 49.0 in December, to remain below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the sixth consecutive month.

• A faster overall drop in private sector output mostly reflected a weaker service sector performance, with business activity falling at the steepest pace for two years (index at 48.0, down from 49.9 in December). Manufacturing production meanwhile decreased considerably in January

• Public sector borrowing in December 2022 was £27.4 billion, the highest December figure since monthly records began in January 1993, largely because of a sharp rise in spending on energy support schemes and an increase in debt interest.

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