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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 45769 as the dollar climbed to 11-month highs on growing expectations of quicker-than-expected US interest rate hikes. St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard cautioned high inflation may require more aggressive steps by the central bank, including two interest rate hikes in 2022. U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in September as a relentless rise in COVID-19 cases deepened concerns about the economy's near-term prospects, fitting in with expectations for a slowdown in growth in the third quarter. The survey from the Conference Board showed consumers less interested in buying a home and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles and major household appliances over the next six months. Consumers were also not as upbeat in their views of the labor market as in the prior month. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 109.3 this month from 115.2 in August. The third straight monthly decline pushed the index to the lowest level since February. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 1.1% in August from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 21.804 tonnes in August compared with 22.056 tonnes in July, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.49% to settled at 14093 while prices down -187 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45610 and below same could see a test of 45451 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46050, a move above could see prices testing 46331.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 45451-46331.
Gold seen under pressure as the dollar climbed to 11-month highs on growing expectations of quicker-than-expected US interest rate hikes.
Consumer confidence index falls 5.9 pts to 109.3 in September
Goods trade deficit rises 0.9% to $87.6 bln in August


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -3.44% at 58386 as the dollar rose and on growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon begin winding down its economic support measures. The Federal Reserve’s massive asset purchases helped to stabilize markets at the start of the pandemic but it will “soon” be time to start reducing them, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said. “I am in the camp that believes it will soon be time to begin slowly and methodically — frankly, boringly — tapering our $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury bills and mortgage-backed securities,” Harker said in remarks prepared for a virtual event. Harker said he expects the U.S. economy to grow by about 6.5% in 2021 and then for growth to “moderate” to about 3.5% in 2022. The Fed official said he expects inflation to be around 4% for 2021 before it comes down to just over 2% for 2022. Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes rebounded to a seven-month high in August, but higher prices amid tight supply are slowing the housing market momentum. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, jumped 8.1% last month to 119.5. That was the highest reading since January and followed two straight monthly declines. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 36.73% to settled at 15941 while prices down -2078 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 57501 and below same could see a test of 56617 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59949, a move above could see prices testing 61513.

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 56617-61513.
Silver dropped as the dollar rose and on growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon begin winding down its economic support measures.
Fed's Harker says it will soon be time to begin tapering bond purchases
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy was still far from achieving maximum employment, a key component of its requirements for raising interest rates


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 5576 weighed by a stronger dollar and data showing a surge in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. OPEC+ is likely to stick to an existing deal to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its output for November when it meets next week, despite oil hitting a three-year high above $80 a barrel and pressure from consumers for more supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed in July to increase production by 400,000 bpd each month to phase out 5.8 million bpd in cuts. It also agreed to assess the deal in December. "So far we will keep the plan to increase by 400,000 bpd," one of the sources said. OPEC+, which has held regular meetings, agreed in September to continue with its existing plans for an October output rise. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels in the week to September 24 to 418.5 million barrels. Barclays raised its 2022 oil price forecasts reasoning that a continued recovery in demand could widen a 'persistent' supply shortfall. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.07% to settled at 7870 while prices down -11 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5487 and below same could see a test of 5398 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5652, a move above could see prices testing 5728.

Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 5398-5728.
Crude oil settled lower weighed by a stronger dollar and data showing a surge in U.S. crude stockpiles last week.
U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said.
The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.23% at 408 on forecasts for continued mild weather over the next two weeks that should allow utilities to put enough gas into U.S. storage for the winter heating season when demand for the fuel peaks. Stockpiles were about 7% below normal for this time of year in the United States versus over 20% below normal in some European countries, according government data. U.S. prices dropped despite gas in Asia trading at fresh record highs and forecasts calling for more U.S. demand over the next two weeks as warmer-than-usual weather in some parts of the country will cause some homes and businesses to keep using their air conditioners. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had fallen to an average of 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Hurricane Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 82.6 bcfd this week to 83.7 bcfd next week as homes and businesses start cranking up their heaters. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.52% to settled at 5220 while prices down -22.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 396.2 and below same could see a test of 384.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 428.1, a move above could see prices testing 448.2.

Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 384.4-448.2.
Natural gas fell on forecasts for continued mild weather over the next two weeks that should allow utilities to put enough gas into U.S. storage
Stockpiles were about 7% below normal for this time of year in the United States versus over 20% below normal in some European countries
Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had fallen to an average of 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 710.7 as investors reduced risk exposure amid uncertainty caused by a power curtailment and ahead of a major holiday in China.Power restrictions in China have hurt supplies of some metals in recent months, but electricity curbs recently spread to more downstream sectors and dampened manufacturing, hurting the demand for metals. China is going on a week-long holiday starting Oct. 1, with investors squaring positions ahead of the break to reduce exposure in a volatile market environment. The People's Bank of China injected a total CNY 100 billion of 14-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.35 percent on September 29th 2021, the same as in the previous day, and marking the ninth straight day of cash injections in the financial system. The central bank reinforced the moves aim to maintain liquidity in the banking system ahead of the National Day holidays. The moves are also seen as a sign the authorities are willing to support the financial system and avoid a big collapse and contagion due to the Evergrande crisis. The global world refined copper market showed a 90,000 tonnes deficit in June, compared with a 4,000 tonnes surplus in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.02% to settled at 3945 while prices down -6.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 707.5 and below same could see a test of 704.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 716.2, a move above could see prices testing 721.6.

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 704.2-721.6.
Copper prices fell as investors reduced risk exposure amid uncertainty caused by a power curtailment and ahead of a major holiday in China.
The People's Bank of China injected a total CNY 100 billion of 14-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.35 percent on September 29th 2021.
The central bank reinforced the moves aim to maintain liquidity in the banking system ahead of the National Day holidays.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 256.75 as a power supply crisis gripped China, the largest metals consumer, shutting factories and casting doubt on the outlook for demand. Goldman Sachs and Nomura revised down projections for China’s economic growth this year. Outside China, doubts were emerging about the global recovery as central banks prepared to reduce stimulus and the U.S. government lurched towards a funding crisis. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 6,600 tonnes in July from a revised deficit of 40,000 tonnes in June, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 20,200 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 11,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 420,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. The People's Bank of China injected a total CNY 100 billion of 14-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.35 percent on September 29th 2021, the same as in the previous day, and marking the ninth straight day of cash injections in the financial system. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.61% to settled at 1336 while prices down -3.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 255.1 and below same could see a test of 253.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 259.5, a move above could see prices testing 262.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 253.5-262.3.
Zinc dropped as a power supply crisis gripped China, the largest metals consumer, shutting factories and casting doubt on the outlook for demand.
Goldman Sachs and Nomura revised down projections for China’s economic growth this year.
The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 6,600 tonnes in July from a revised deficit of 40,000 tonnes in June


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 1412.8 as the global nickel market deficit declined to 24,700 tonnes in July from a June shortfall of 32,400 tonnes, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first seven months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 158,900 tonnes compared with a surplus of 80,500 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. The inventory of nickel ore rose more slowly, and the supply of raw materials remained tight. Besides, the accident of a nickel mine in Canada has triggered market concerns over supply. In China, the power rationing has also brought influences to the ferronickel plants. Meanwhile, many downstream steel mills have carried out maintenance recently, dragging down the supply. The new energy sector was still robust, with sound demand for nickel briquette. Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes rebounded to a seven-month high in August, but higher prices amid tight supply are slowing the housing market momentum. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, jumped 8.1% last month to 119.5. That was the highest reading since January and followed two straight monthly declines. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.53% to settled at 1656 while prices down -13.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1397 and below same could see a test of 1381.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1431.4, a move above could see prices testing 1450.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1381.3-1450.1.
Nickel prices dropped as the global nickel market deficit declined to 24,700 tonnes in July from a June shortfall of 32,400 tonnes
The inventory of nickel ore rose more slowly, and the supply of raw materials remained tight.
Besides, the accident of a nickel mine in Canada has triggered market concerns over supply.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.94% at 232.25 as the social inventories of aluminium and aluminium billet have been on the rise as the downstream sector turned away from the high prices, and the demand has also been constrained due to power rationing. While the supply of aluminium continued to fall amid intensifying power rationing, underpinning aluminium prices. Meanwhile, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration has decided to release the fourth batch of national reserves with an amount of 70,000 mt of aluminium, forming resistance against aluminium prices. The People's Bank of China injected a total CNY 100 billion of 14-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.35 percent on September 29th 2021, the same as in the previous day, and marking the ninth straight day of cash injections in the financial system. The central bank reinforced the moves aim to maintain liquidity in the banking system ahead of the National Day holidays. The moves are also seen as a sign the authorities are willing to support the financial system and avoid a big collapse and contagion due to the Evergrande crisis. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.53% to settled at 2235 while prices down -2.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 231.2 and below same could see a test of 230.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 234.3, a move above could see prices testing 236.3.

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 230.1-236.3.
Aluminium prices dropped as the social inventories of aluminium and aluminium billet have been on the rise
While the supply of aluminium continued to fall amid intensifying power rationing, underpinning aluminium prices.
National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration has decided to release the fourth batch of national reserves with an amount of 70,000 mt of aluminium


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 934.4 as US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine to help fund their $3.5 trillion spending plan. The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary. They have also proposed new taxes on vaping products. Pressure also seen after the news that the Food and Drug Administration has proposed a ban on menthol cigarettes, suggesting it may prompt 923,000 U.S. smokers to quit, according to one study. Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers. This year US FDA announced it is taking steps to ban menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes, and ban all characterizing flavors — including menthol — in cigars within the next year. In Goldman Sachs' Nicotine Nuggets survey, nearly 70 percent of retailers said they expected cigarette volume declines to accelerate in 2021. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.9 Rupees to end at 1048.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.31% to settled at 1277 while prices down -0.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 931.5 and below same could see a test of 928.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 938.2, a move above could see prices testing 941.9.

Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 928.5-941.9.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.9 Rupees to end at 1048.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices dropped as US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine.
The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary.
Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 5902 amid new crop arrivals and the commencement of soymeal imports. However downside seen limited as SOPA has pegged the acreage lower to the extent of 6.45 per cent at 115.5 lh against the Agriculture Ministry’s estimates of 123.60 lh. Latur Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC), reported arrivals of 15,000 quintals with average prices ranging between Rs 5,500 per quintal and Rs 6,100 per quintal. Soyabean crop has been totally damaged on about 8 lakh hectares (lh) due to excess rains and the crop condition is poor in about 12.83 per cent of the planted area, according to Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), the apex trade body. SOPA said crop condition is normal in 42.20 per cent of the sown area, good in 22.97 per cent and very good in 15.46 per cent. SOPA had carried out extensive survey recently across every major soyabean growing districts in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka among others interacting with farmers on the fields, traders, input suppliers, mandi officials and soya processors to assess the health of the oilseed crop. India's soybean production in MY 2021-22 is expected to be around 10.8 million mt, nearly 16.6% lower on the year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 55 Rupees to 6199 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.45% to settled at while prices up 13 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5854 and below same could see a test of 5805 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5946, a move above could see prices testing 5989.

Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 5805-5989.
Soyabean dropped amid new crop arrivals and the commencement of soymeal imports.
Latur Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC), reported arrivals of 15,000 quintals
Soyabean damaged on 8 lakh ha; crop health poor in 13% of planted area, says SOPA
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  55 Rupees to 6199 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 1323.1 as oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. Imports in 2020/21 marketing year ending Oct. 31 could fall to 13.1 million tonnes, the lowest in six years, from last year's 13.2 million, B.V. Mehta, SEA executive director, said in a virtual conference. Palm oil imports, however, could rise 8% from a year ago to 7.8 million tonnes, he said, as India allowed imports of refined palm oil and cut the import tax on crude palm oil. India's export of oilmeal, used as animal feed, declined 4 percent to 1,64,831 tonne in August from the year-ago period, in view of domestic shortage of the key oilmeal products. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1335.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.42% to settled at while prices up 12.7 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1311 and below same could see a test of 1299 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1330, a move above could see prices testing 1337.

Trading Ideas:
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1299-1337.
Ref soyoil seen supported as oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt
India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA
U.S. August soybean oil stock seen at 1.668 billion pounds: NOPA
At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1335.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.


Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 1122.7 underpinned by signs of slowing production and a recovery in rival soyoil prices. Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Malaysia's production during Sept. 1-20 fell 4.5% from the same period in August. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-20 rose 36.7 percent to 1,070,096 tonnes from 783,027 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-20. Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-20 rose 38% to 1,089,071 tonnes from the same week in August, cargo surveyor Amspec Agri said. However, this was slower than a 54% monthly rise in Sept. 1-15. Malaysia maintained its October export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,472.46 ringgit ($1,068.18) per tonne for October, up from 4,255.52 ringgit in September. India has cut base import taxes on palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, a government order showed, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 0.3 Rupees to end at 1138.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.88% to settled at 4872 while prices up 7.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1112.8 and below same could see a test of 1103 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1129.2, a move above could see prices testing 1135.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 1103-1135.8.
Crude palm oil prices seen supported underpinned by signs of slowing production and a recovery in rival soyoil prices.
Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Malaysia's production during Sept. 1-20 fell 4.5% from the same period in August.
Malaysia’s September 1-20 palm oil exports shoots up
In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 0.3 Rupees to end at 1138.8 Rupees.


Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.77% at 8478 due to deficient stocks and peak consumption season. Mustards stocks dwindle to 30Lakh tonnes with about 5-6 months remaining for new arrival season. Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought. Prices seen supported as Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23. Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 8767 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.23% to settled at while prices up 65 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8414 and below same could see a test of 8349 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8526, a move above could see prices testing 8573.

Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 8349-8573.
Mustard seed prices seen supported due to deficient stocks and peak consumption season.
Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought.
Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23.
In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 8767 Rupees per 100 kg.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 7314 amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7201.3 Rupees gained 6.3 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.95% to settled at while prices down -88 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7240 and below same could see a test of 7166 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7420, a move above could see prices testing 7526.

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7166-7526.
Turmeric dropped amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7201.3 Rupees gained 6.3 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 14765 as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 15.1 Rupees to end at 14529.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.44% to settled at while prices up 80 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14675 and below same could see a test of 14590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14820, a move above could see prices testing 14880.

Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 14590-14880.
Jeera gains as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin
However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.
India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 15.1 Rupees to end at 14529.4 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.55% at 28150 amid supply concerns, shipping constraints, and growing demand from top user China and other buyers like Turkey and Pakistan. Heavy rains are threatening crops in major US growing regions including Texas and the Mississippi Delta, while a pest called pink bollworm is rapidly spreading across fields. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture said US cotton exports in 2020-21 were the highest in 15 years at 16.4 million bales. The commodity has surged nearly 50% in the past year amid projections for two straight world deficits through 2021-22. The pink bollworm attack on cotton crop in Punjab has been found to be much beyond earlier anticipated. Over one fourth area in biggest cotton growing districts of Bathinda and Mansa are disturbed on the count though earlier the attack was felt in around 10-15% area in these districts. Cotton procurement for 2021-22 kharif season should commence from the first week of November, Minister for Cooperation and Marketing Balasaheb Patil said. At a meeting, Patil took the stock of cotton cultivation in Maharashtra. He directed the department to start early cotton procurement from November first week to facilitate timely sale and income for farmers. In spot market, Cotton gained by 420 Rupees to end at 27260 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.32% to settled at 1920 while prices up 700 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 27400 and below same could see a test of 26640 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 28840, a move above could see prices testing 29520.

Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 26640-29520.
Cotton prices rose amid supply concerns, shipping constraints, and growing demand from top user China and other buyers like Turkey and Pakistan.
The pink bollworm attack on cotton crop in Punjab has been found to be much beyond earlier anticipated.
Heavy rains are threatening crops in major US growing regions including Texas and the Mississippi Delta
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 420 Rupees to end at 27260 Rupees.

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