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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 57483 as investors digest the latest US CPI report, adjust their monetary tightening expectations and as concerns regarding the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank and news that Credit Suisse found “material weaknesses” in its reporting continue to raise fears over contagion to other banks, leading to a risk-off mood. Inflation rate in the US slowed as expected but the core monthly rate accelerated, in a sign that inflationary pressures remain elevated, with most investors now expecting a 25 bps rate hike from the Fed next week. Meanwhile, the ECB is seen raising rates by either 25bps or 50bps. China's central bank announced it had bought more gold, nearly 25 metric tons, in February, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The February purchase follows about 32 tons of gold added in November, the first officially recorded increase since September 2019, according to data released by the People's Bank of China. By the end of February, China's total gold reserves rose to around 2,050.34 tons, PBOC data showed. Singapore boosted its gold reserves by about 30% in January, joining central banks from China to Turkey in building up holdings of the precious metal. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.43% to settle at 9245 while prices are down -159 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57230 and below same could see a test of 56977 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57737, a move above could see prices testing 57991.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56977-57991.
* Gold eased as investors digest the latest US CPI report, and as concerns regarding the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank.
* Inflation rate in the US slowed as expected but the core monthly rate accelerated, in a sign that inflationary pressures remain elevated
* China's central bank announced it had bought more gold nearly 25 metric tons in February, the fourth consecutive monthly increase


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 66956 as investors digested the latest price data and continued to assess the instability of the US banking sector for clues on the Federal Reserve’s tightening path for the coming months. While the headline US CPI was in line with expectations, soaring shelter costs lifted the core reading to a hotter-than-anticipated 0.5% in February, underscoring inflationary pressure. Consumer prices in the United States rose by 6% annually in February, slowing for the eighth straight month and in line with market expectations. Still, increases in the cost of shelter drove core consumer prices to rise 0.5% from the prior month, above forecasts, to underscore inflationary pressure in the economy. Still, high demand for safe assets supported bullion prices after the closure of major US banks threatened global financial stability. Further, fears that more banks may break due to elevated borrowing costs pared expectations on how high the Federal Reserve may hike rates. Tight supplies also helped the rebound, with the LBMA and COMEX inventories remaining low. Additionally, data revealed reserves by major producer, Peru, dropped by 22,000 tonnes to 98,000 in 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.76% to settle at 13103 while prices are up 304 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66189 and below same could see a test of 65422 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67424, a move above could see prices testing 67892.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65422-67892.
* Silver rose holding the sharp rebound as investors digested the latest price data and continued to assess the instability of the US banking sector.
* High demand for safe assets supported bullion prices after the closure of major US banks threatened global financial stability.
* Tight supplies also helped the rebound, with the LBMA and COMEX inventories remaining low.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.98% at 5983 as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a U.S. bank, sparked fears of a fresh financial crisis that could reduce future oil demand. U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in February as Americans faced persistently higher costs for rents and food, posing a dilemma for the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose fight against inflation has been complicated by the collapse of two regional banks. OPEC further raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 due to the relaxation of the country's COVID-19 curbs, although it left the global total steady, citing potential downside risks for world growth. World oil demand in 2023 will rise by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report. This was unchanged from last month's forecast. While faster Chinese demand could support the oil market, crude prices have fallen this week as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has sparked fears about a fresh financial crisis. OPEC flagged potential downside risks for the world economy from rising interest rates. "China's reopening, following the lifting of the strict zero-COVID-19 policy, will add considerable momentum to global economic growth," OPEC said in the report. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 33.42% to settle at 10848 while prices are down -184 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5922 and below same could see a test of 5861 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6087, a move above could see prices testing 6191.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5861-6191.
* Crude oil prices fell as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a U.S. bank, sparked fears of a fresh financial crisis that could reduce future oil demand.
* OPEC raises Chinese oil demand growth forecast further
* World oil demand in 2023 will rise by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3% - OPEC


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.81% at 212.1 on forecasts for more cold weather and higher heating demand this week than previously expected, a preliminary drop in daily output and near record amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Weighing on prices were forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.7 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.8 bcfd to a preliminary five-week low of 97.5 bcfd on Tuesday. That would be the biggest one-day output decline since late December. Energy traders said the decline was likely caused by freezing oil and gas wells in several producing basins, known as freeze-offs. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through March 29 with the coldest days expected on Saturday and Sunday, March 18-19. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 120.1 bcfd this week to 119.5 bcfd next week Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.58% to settle at 29341 while prices are up 1.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 207.5 and below same could see a test of 202.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219, a move above could see prices testing 225.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202.9-225.9.
* Natural gas gains on forecasts for more cold weather and higher heating demand this week than previously expected.
* Support also seen on preliminary drop in daily output and near record amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.7 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.43% at 758.4 amid firmer dollar while markets continued to process the sudden collapse of U.S. regional banks. Fears of a U.S. banking crisis were intensified by the collapse of lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank even as President Joe Biden pledged to take action to ensure the safety of the banking system. Still, green shoots of improved copper demand in top consumer China cushioned the drop in prices. Yangshan copper premium rose to $25 a tonne, its highest since March 1, indicating improving demand for imported copper into China, albeit still far below some $150-a-tonne premium hit last October. SHFE front-month copper contract has been trading at a premium over the third-month contract since Monday, switching from a discount that has lasted for most of this year, indicating tightening nearby Chinese supply. Data showed that China’s copper cathode output stood at 907,800 mt in February, up 6.4% from the previous month and 6.49% from the same period in 2022. The actual output was 8,500 mt higher than the expected 899,300 mt. Although a smelter carried out maintenance ahead of schedule in February, thanks to the ramp-up of new capacity and the resumption of three smelters, the actual output was higher than expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.54% to settle at 3993 while prices are down -3.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 753.4 and below same could see a test of 748.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 762.7, a move above could see prices testing 767.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 748.4-767.
* Copper dropped amid firmer dollar while markets continued to process the sudden collapse of U.S. regional banks.
* Yangshan copper premium rose to $25 a tonne, its highest since March 1, indicating improving demand
* Still, green shoots of improved copper demand in top consumer China cushioned the drop in prices.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 259.7 as fears over persistent interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve weighed on investor sentiment, while improving supply prospects added downward pressure on the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks about upcoming interest rate hikes aimed at fighting stubbornly high inflation exacerbated concerns over economic activities and global demand of industrial metals. China's decision to set a modest 5% economic growth target for 2023 dampened some optimism around a surge in demand by the world's largest buyer of natural resources. Meanwhile, recent data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed the global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised 66,900 tonnes a month earlier. For the entire 2022 year, ILZSG data indicated a shortage of 306,000 tonnes versus a shortage of 204,000 tonnes in 2021. In March 2023, domestic refined zinc production will increase 59,000 mt MoM and 13% YoY to 560,400 mt. The output from January to March will reach 1.57 million mt, an increase of 6.87% year-on-year. Entering March, power cuts in Yunnan have affected the smelters in Qujing and Kunming. Meanwhile, the overproduction plan of domestic smelters and the resumption of secondary zinc smelters will bring about some additional increments. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.4% to settle at 3188 while prices are down -2.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 258.3 and below same could see a test of 256.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 262, a move above could see prices testing 264.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 256.9-264.3.
* Zinc dropped as fears over persistent interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve weighed on investor sentiment.
* Improving supply prospects also added downward pressure on the market
* China's decision to set a modest 5% economic growth target for 2023 dampened some optimism around a surge in demand



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 207.3 as China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China's eight major markets stood at 1.267 million mt as of March 9, down 2,000 mt from a week ago, but up 122,000 mt from the same period last year. The social inventory remained high. Since the end of February, the inventory build-up has slowed down significantly, and the inventory has basically hovered around 1.27 million mt. After four consecutive weeks of decline, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory began to rise this week, adding 7,200 mt from a week ago to 163,400 mt as of March 9. Smelters raised the proportion of molten aluminium output last month, allowing more billets to arrive in early March. Wuxi led the growth as the lifting of storage restrictions pushed local inventory up by 8,400 mt. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $125-$145 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments, up 45%-71% from this quarter. The offers, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in six quarters and the highest level since the October-December quarter in 2022, reflecting a view from producers that demand from automakers is set to pick up. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.4% to settle at 3524 while prices are up 1.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.6 and below same could see a test of 204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.2, a move above could see prices testing 209.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204-209.2.
* Aluminum gains as China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime
* However, persistently high inventory of aluminium ingots limiting the upside
* The domestic aluminium billet social inventory began to rise this week, adding 7,200 mt from a week ago to 163,400 mt


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -2.15% at 1012.8 on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -8.1 Rupees to end at 1181.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.95% to settle at 743 while prices are down -22.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1000.9 and below same could see a test of 989 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1030.3, a move above could see prices testing 1047.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 989-1047.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -8.1 Rupees to end at 1181.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 6786 on low level buying after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6869.25 Rupees gained 0.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.12% to settle at 12265 while prices are up 14 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6742 and below same could see a test of 6698 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6826, a move above could see prices testing 6866.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6698-6866.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6869.25 Rupees gained 0.4 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.57% at 32090 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 370 Rupees to end at 31086.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.47% to settle at 5322 while prices are up 805 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31440 and below same could see a test of 30795 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32495, a move above could see prices testing 32905.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 30795-32905.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 370 Rupees to end at 31086.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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