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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 59893 despite lingering worries about economic growth. Data showed US consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, exacerbating concerns that the world's largest economy would fall into recession later this year. On the monetary side, the Federal Reserve will likely deliver another 25bps rate hike next week as signs of persistent inflation suggest the tightening cycle is not over. Switzerland exported more gold to mainland China in March than in any month since July 2022, but shipments to India and Turkey fell from February's level, Swiss customs data showed. China's gold production jumped 6.9% in the first quarter of 2023 recovering to pre-pandemic levels, partly spurred by a jump in demand for gold and jewellery as investors sought safe havens away from jittery financial markets. China's mined gold output rose 1.9% to 84.97 tonnes in the January-March quarter from the same period a year earlier, as capacity returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, with 78% of that from gold mines and the rest from non-ferrous by-products, the China Gold Association said. Gold made from the imported raw materials rose 24.4% year-on-year to 29.9 tonnes in the quarter, contributing to a total output of 114.87 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.34% to settle at 15013 while prices are down -368 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59670 and below same could see a test of 59446 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60273, a move above could see prices testing 60652.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59446-60652.
* Gold dropped despite lingering worries about economic growth
* The US trade deficit in goods narrowed to USD 84.6 billion in March of 2023
* Swiss gold exports to China rose in March, shipments to India and Turkey fell

Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 73819 as traders strapped in for U.S. economic data for further guidance on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Treasury yields dipped after a measure of U.S. consumer confidence hit a nine-month low and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index showed contraction for a fourth straight month, raising the possibility of an imminent recession. Concerns about turmoil in the banking sector also weighed on the dollar after First Republic reported a loss of more than $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter. The US trade deficit in goods narrowed to USD 84.6 billion in March of 2023 from the upwardly revised USD 92 billion in the previous month, compared to market expectations of a USD 89 billion gap. New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose by 3.2 percent from a month earlier in March 2023, recovering from a revised 1.2 percent decline in February and easily beating market expectations of a 0.7 percent growth. Wholesale inventories in the US increased 0.1% month-over-month in March of 2023, the same pace as in the prior month and slightly below market forecasts of a 0.2% rise, preliminary estimates showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.59% to settle at 5989 while prices are down -444 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73424 and below same could see a test of 73028 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 74529, a move above could see prices testing 75238.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73028-75238.
* Silver dropped as traders strapped in for U.S. economic data
* U.S. consumer confidence hit a nine-month low
* Still, money markets are pricing in the peak for US interest rates in June and then a decline to end the year below 4.5%.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.58% at 6235 as weak U.S. data that raised fears of recession in the world's biggest economy. Pressure seen amid lingering economic concerns and expectations of further interest rate hikes that could curtail fuel demand growth are countering signs of improving short-term consumption gains. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ remains an efficient tool for coordination on global oil markets. US crude oil inventories fell by 5.054 million barrels in the week ending April 21st, 2023, the largest decline in a month and compared with market consensus of a 1.486 million drop, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. Meanwhile, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 0.319 million barrels, the first period of increase since the week ending February 24th, and gasoline inventories fell by 2.408 million, more than an expected 0.933 million draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, were also down by 0.576 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 0.839 million drop. Investors now look ahead to a raft of US economic data to gauge the health of the world’s largest oil consumer. Major oil companies, including Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp, will be reporting first-quarter earnings this week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 47.61% to settle at 9373 while prices are down -100 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6164 and below same could see a test of 6094 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6347, a move above could see prices testing 6460.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6094-6460.
* Crude oil dropped as weak U.S. data that raised fears of recession
* Russian’s Novak said that OPEC+ remains an efficient tool for coordination on global oil markets.
* US crude oil inventories fell by 5.054 million barrels

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -6.41% at 188.5 on rising output and a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in recent days. That price drop came despite forecasts for a little more cold and heating demand next week than previously expected and even as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was still on track to hit a record high for a second month in a row after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.36 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.74 bcfd in March. That was close to the monthly record of 100.45 bcfd in January. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through May 5 before turning near-normal from May 6 to 11. With the weather slowly turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 99.3 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 42.05% to settle at 36099 while prices are down -12.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 184.5 and below same could see a test of 180.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.8, a move above could see prices testing 203.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 180.6-203.2.
* Natural gas fell on rising output
* Pressure also seen amid a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants in recent days.
* Average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 739.15 as concern is mounting over global economic growth, with a plunge in U.S. consumer confidence. There is still slower than expected recovery in Chinese demand during a time that is meant to be the busiest construction period of the year. China's cabinet issued a plan to stabilise its trade sector as subdued global demand threatens its exports outlook. On-warrant copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose by 2,750 tonnes to 59,775 tonnes on Wednesday to reach their highest since Jan. 13. China's refined copper production in March jumped 9% year-on-year to a record high of 1.05 million tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 34,000 tonnes over the March period, according to calculations based on the official data. Glencore reported a 5% fall in its copper production for the first quarter, owing to lower grades due to phasing of a pit at Collahuasi and delays associated with adverse weather conditions at Antamina. Copper prices, often seen as an economic bellwether, were weighed down by latest U.S. data showing a loss of labor market momentum, and slumping retail sales and manufacturing activity. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.9% to settle at 5624 while prices are down -1.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 736 and below same could see a test of 732.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 744.1, a move above could see prices testing 749.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 732.9-749.1.
* Copper dropped as concern is mounting over global economic growth
* There is still slower than expected recovery in Chinese demand
* On-warrant copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose by 2,750 tonnes to 59,775 tonnes

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 236.15 on short covering after prices dropped on concerns around weak demand in China and a steady U.S. dollar. Markets are also expected to tread cautiously ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. Top consumer China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year. On the supply side, recent data showed that the country's refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March, as expected. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventories remained close to levels not seen since 1989. Last year's shutdowns of some European zinc smelters due to soaring power prices became a key driver behind low LME stocks. The smelter bottleneck was severe enough to generate a global supply shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes, according to ILZSG. The Bank of China Research Institute released the Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Second Quarter of 2023 on April 3. According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic subsided, and the economic stabilisation policies were deployed, China’s economy continued to recover. China’s GDP was expected to grow by about 4.1% in the first quarter. Zinc ingot stocks in the Shanghai bonded zone were 2,000 mt, flat compared to April 14. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.44% to settle at 3882 while prices are up 2.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 234.3 and below same could see a test of 232.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.3, a move above could see prices testing 238.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 232.5-238.5.
* Zinc gains on short covering after dropped on concerns around weak demand
* China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year
* Markets are also expected to tread cautiously ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 207.15 as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC expects consumer price inflation to pick up later this year but there is no basis for long term deflation or inflation in the country, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at PBOC, said at a news conference in Beijing. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year on year in March to 5.772 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers premiums in the April-June quarter of 2023 that are as much as 53% higher than the previous quarter, reflecting higher overseas prices. The Japanese buyers will pay premiums of between $125-$130 per tonne for shipments in April to June. Severe power shortages in China's southwestern Yunnan province are likely to cut aluminium production in the country's fourth-largest producing province. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.56% to settle at 3150 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.1 and below same could see a test of 204.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.7, a move above could see prices testing 210.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.9-210.1.
* Aluminium dropped as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession.
* China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19
* The central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the PBOC said

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 970.8 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 7.5 Rupees to end at 1156 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.28% to settle at 696 while prices are down -2.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 965.1 and below same could see a test of 959.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 975.7, a move above could see prices testing 980.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 959.3-980.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 7.5 Rupees to end at 1156 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled down as demand was poor due to recession fears
* Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes
* In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3% at 6738 as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6672.65 Rupees dropped -48.85 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.89% to settle at 13255 while prices are up 196 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6526 and below same could see a test of 6316 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6872, a move above could see prices testing 7008.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6316-7008.
* Turmeric rose as crops got damaged due to untimely rains in Andhra Pradesh
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6672.65 Rupees dropped -48.85 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.84% at 40680 on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 84.75 Rupees to end at 40460.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.84% to settle at 7293 while prices are up 735 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 39930 and below same could see a test of 39180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 41150, a move above could see prices testing 41620.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 39180-41620.
* Jeera prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 84.75 Rupees to end at 40460.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

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