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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.16% at 59388 as dollar firmed and hopes of a soft landing for a resilient U.S. economy and that Chinese stimulus measures will drive economic growth dented safe-haven demand for bullion. Gold ended July higher, on expectations that global central banks were near the end of their rate-hiking cycle, boosting demand for zero-yield bullion. India's gold demand in 2023 could fall 10% from a year ago to their lowest in three years, as record high prices are dampening retail purchases, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. The lower purchases in the world's second-biggest gold consumer could limit a rally in global prices. Falling demand for gold imports could also help to narrow Indian gold consumption in the April-June quarter fell 7% to 158.1 metric tons, as both jewellery and investment demand dropped. Global gold demand excluding over-the-counter (OTC) trading fell 2% year-on-year to 920.7 metric tons in the second quarter of 2023 as central banks slowed their purchases and consumption by the technology sector remained soft, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. In the first half of 2023, central banks bought 386.9 metric tons of gold, more than in any January-June period in data going back to 2000, the WGC said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.8% to settle at 15013 while prices are down -694 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59182 and below same could see a test of 58976 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59762, a move above could see prices testing 60136.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58976-60136.
* Gold down as dollar strengthens on hope for soft landing in U.S. economy.
* Chinese stimulus measures will drive economic growth dented safe-haven demand for bullion.
* India's gold demand in 2023 could fall 10% from a year ago to their lowest in three years

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.97% at 73943 pressured by a rebound for the US dollar and a more hawkish outlook for the Fed following strong US GDP and labor data releases. Still, strong industrial demand and signs of tight supply limited the drawback and lifted silver to outperform gold since the start of the third quarter. Efforts to curb carbon emissions magnified the effect of evolving solar panel technologies that need higher conduction needs, underpinning sharp upgrades in forecasts of silver demand. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014, and driving an expected 4% increase in consumption this year. Federal Reserve survey showed US banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand from both businesses and consumers in the second quarter. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the US central bank is “walking the line pretty well” on bringing down inflation without causing a recession. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States edged higher to 46.4 in July 2023 from a nearly three-year low of 46 in June, but below market expectations of 46.8. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.34% to settle at 15815 while prices are down -1484 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73330 and below same could see a test of 72718 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 74942, a move above could see prices testing 75942.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72718-75942.
* Silver dropped pressured by a rebound for the US dollar
* US banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand from both businesses and consumers in the second quarter.
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee said the US central bank is “walking the line pretty well” on bringing down inflation without causing a recession.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 6727 as the prospect of tighter global supply continued to lift oil prices. Goldman Sachs revised up its global oil demand forecast for the year while sticking to its 12- month Brent price projection of $93 per barrel as higher realized inventories offset the demand boost from a less pessimistic growth outlook. Goldman estimate global oil demand climbed to an all-time high of 102.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July and see solid demand driving a larger-than-expected 1.8 million bpd deficit in the second half this year and a 0.6 million bpd deficit in 2024. Oil prices will stall this year as weak economic growth is expected to curb demand and offset the impact of OPEC+ production cuts on supply. Global oil demand was expected to increase by about 1-2.1 million bpd in 2023, led by China. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in May fell by 17,000 bpd from the previous month to 218,000 bpd, according to data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in May fell by 5,000 bpd from the previous month to 164,000 bpd. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.02% to settle at 12148 while prices are up 30 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6662 and below same could see a test of 6598 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6765, a move above could see prices testing 6804.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6598-6804.
* Crudeoil gains as tighter global supply continued to lift prices.
* Goldman upgrades oil demand outlook as market tempers growth pessimism
* Global oil demand expected to grow by 1–2.1 mln bpd in 2023

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.03% at 212.3 on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The price decline came despite a preliminary drop in daily output and forecasts for hotter than normal weather to continue through mid-August, especially in Texas. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 bcfd in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June but just shy of the 101.8-bcfd monthly record set in May due to pipeline maintenance earlier in the month. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 2.8 bcfd to a preliminary two-week low of 99.9 bcfd on Tuesday. That would be the biggest one-day decline in output since December, but traders noted preliminary data – especially at the start of the month – is often revised by large amounts later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Aug. 16. With more hot weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 106.1 bcfd this week to 106.9 bcfd next week as power generators burn more of the fuel to meet rising air conditioning demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 18.35% to settle at 44392 while prices are down -4.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 207.6 and below same could see a test of 202.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.9, a move above could see prices testing 225.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202.9-225.5.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* The price decline came despite a preliminary drop in daily output and forecasts for hotter than normal weather.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 bcfd in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.51% at 744.45 as Key manufacturing PMIs in China pointed to another factory activity contraction in July, strengthening the case for the government to step in and support the country’s industrial sector. However, downside seen limited amid persistent concerns that tight supply and increasing demand may cause shortages. State-owned Chilean miner Codelco revised its output projections by 70,000 tonnes to 1.31-1.35 million tonnes this year due to explosions and delays in key mines, shortly after the giant reported that production in the first half of 2023 tanked by 14% year-on-year. The data follows a 7% output decline from the company in 2022, aligning with warnings by miners and market players that low supply levels are unable to keep up with rising demand due to copper’s key use in sustainability-oriented infrastructure. The discount for copper for nearby delivery on the London Metal Exchange over the three-month contract has jumped to a two-month peak after a surge in stocks available to the market in LME-registered warehouses. The discount – or contango – for cash copper over the three-month contract climbed to $40.25 a metric tonne, its highest in two months. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.68% to settle at 4724 while prices are down -11.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 739.5 and below same could see a test of 734.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 753.8, a move above could see prices testing 762.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 734.3-762.9.
* Copper falls as China's manufacturing PMIs signal factory activity contraction
* However, downside seen limited amid persistent concerns of tight supply
* Codelco revised its output projections by 70,000 tonnes to 1.31-1.35 million tonnes this year

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 226.7 after a strong July, as weak data out of top consumer China indicated poor demand. The dollar strengthened after a survey from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand during the second quarter, a sign rising interest rates are having an impact on the economy. Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, as both the US and Europe continue to grapple with inflation and tight monetary policies. Simultaneously, global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of zinc have risen above 90,000 metric tons for the first time since May of 2022 thanks to a surge of deliveries into Singapore. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.71% to settle at 4300 while prices are down -0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 224.8 and below same could see a test of 222.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228.6, a move above could see prices testing 230.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.8-230.4.
* Zinc dropped as weak data out of China indicated poor demand.
* Pledges from the Chinese authorities to boost the country's troubled property sector.
* Global zinc market surplus falls to 53,000 metric tons in May – ILZSG


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 202.6 as smelters in Yunnan have gradually resumed their production due to the eased power curtailment, which will certainly bring pressure on the aluminum price. Earlier this year, reduced hydropower capacity in Yunnan restricted power consumption, resulting in aluminum production cut locally, thereby supporting the aluminum price. There will be a supply deficit of 191,750 tons in the global aluminum market this year, and the figure will drop to 66,000 tons in 2024 due to higher production in Yunnan province. Global factory activity remained in a slump in July, private surveys showed, a sign slowing growth and weakness in China were taking a toll on the world economy, though the picture in the Americas was notably less bleak than elsewhere. The downturn highlighted the dilemma for policymakers who embarked on aggressive monetary policy tightening cycles in a battle to keep inflation at bay and yet also need to try and forestall potential recessions. S&P Global's gauge of worldwide manufacturing activity held steady at 48.7 in July, matching the lowest level since June 2020, with subindices of factory output and new orders both slipping to six-month lows. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.84% to settle at 3254 while prices are down -1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.6 and below same could see a test of 200.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.2, a move above could see prices testing 205.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.5-205.7.
* Aluminium dropped as smelters in Yunnan have gradually resumed production
* Global factory activity remained in a slump in July
* There will be a supply deficit of 191,750 tons in the global aluminum market this year

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 873.8 amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -9.2 Rupees to end at 1014.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.55% to settle at 965 while prices are down -5.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 870.5 and below same could see a test of 867.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 876.8, a move above could see prices testing 879.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 867.2-879.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -9.2 Rupees to end at 1014.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.27% at 15096 on profit booking after prices rose driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 13456.5 Rupees gained 44.1 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.62% to settle at while prices are down -194 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 14614 and below same could see a test of 14130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15668, a move above could see prices testing 16238.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14130-16238.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after supported by fall in area and slower sowing progress.
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 13456.5 Rupees gained 44.1 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 59690 as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -63.85 Rupees to end at 60086.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.13% to settle at while prices are up 475 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 58960 and below same could see a test of 58235 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60315, a move above could see prices testing 60945.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 58235-60945.
* Jeera prices rose as arrivals decreased
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -63.85 Rupees to end at 60086.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

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