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Gold

Gold faced a 1.56% decline, settling at 62369, driven by profit booking after achieving a record high. This dip came amidst increasing confidence in an anticipated interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve early next year. The metal had earlier surged to a peak of 64063 on renewed expectations of a rate cut, triggered by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell emphasized the need for a balanced approach to interest rates, acknowledging the risks of both excessive hikes and insufficient increases to control inflation. The Euro zone's 2.4% inflation drop in November fueled expectations of the ECB cutting rates faster than previously indicated. Traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of an ECB rate cut by March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Comex gold speculators demonstrated bullish sentiment, increasing their net long position by 29,517 contracts to 144,410 in the week to Nov. 28, as per CFTC data. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -4.29% drop in open interest to 17177, coupled with a price decrease of -988 rupees. From a technical perspective, gold finds support at 61725, and a breach below this level may lead to a test of 61080. On the upside, resistance is expected at 63540, and surpassing this level could push prices to test 64710.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 61080-64710.
* Gold edged down on profit booking after scaling a record
* Fed’s Powell said "the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced," but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now.
*Speculators raise net long position in COMEX gold – CFTC


Silver

Silver witnessed a significant 2.46% decline, settling at 76168, influenced by an increase in US bond yields, which boosted USD demand and triggered profit-taking. Federal Reserve Chair Powell's statements about potential policy tightening contributed to a shift in market sentiment. Traders, initially confident that the rate-hike cycle was over, are now pricing in a 70% chance of a U.S. central bank rate cut by March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Data highlighting easing inflationary pressures and a potentially declining labor market support the expectation of a rate cut. Euro zone inflation dropping to 2.4% in November adds momentum to bets that the ECB will expedite interest rate cuts. Geopolitical concerns, such as the Israeli military's ground offensive in Gaza, also impacted market dynamics. Furthermore, silver prices were influenced by concerns over industrial silver supply against robust demand. The Silver Institute projects a 2% global mined silver production decrease in 2023, mainly due to lower output from key producers Mexico and Peru. Simultaneously, increased investments in solar panels, power grids, and 5G networks are driving an 8%-10% forecasted rise in silver demand. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -28.26% drop in open interest to 18139 and a price decrease of -1919 rupees. Silver finds support at 75200, with a potential test of 74240 below, while resistance is anticipated at 77835, and a move above could lead to testing 79510.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74240-79510.
* Silver dropped as an uptick in the US bond yields revives the USD demand and prompts some profit-taking.
* Powell reiterated that the Fed is prepared to tighten policy further if deemed appropriate
* Geopolitical tensions, looming recession risks and Fed rate cuts should limit further losses.


Crude oil

Crude oil faced a 1.97% decline, closing at 6157, primarily attributed to uncertainties surrounding OPEC+ voluntary output cuts and a dim global demand outlook. While Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait announced additional cuts, some members are yet to pledge. Brazil's entry into the alliance, targeting a 3.8 million bpd increase next year, added to the complexity. The Baker Hughes report indicated a surge in US oil rigs to 505, the highest since September, possibly influencing global supply dynamics. On the demand front, subdued manufacturing activity in the US and China raised concerns about weakened energy demand. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with intensified fighting in Gaza, maintained market unease. Notably, the US crude production reached a record 13.24 million bpd in September, reflecting a 1.7% monthly increase, largely fueled by North Dakota's substantial rise, reaching 1.3 million bpd. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed a 6.84% surge in open interest, settling at 12634, while prices fell by 124 rupees. Current support is identified at 6075, with potential downside testing at 5994. Resistance is projected at 6242, and a breakthrough might propel prices to 6328.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5994-6328.
* Crude oil fell amid uncertainty over OPEC+ voluntary output cuts and a weakening global demand outlook.
* OPEC+ members including announced additional voluntary cuts to the total of 2.2 million barrels per day.
* Weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity in the US and China stoked fears of softer energy demand.


Natural gas

Natural gas experienced a notable 5.25% decline, settling at 223.9, driven by factors such as ample storage, record production, and reduced demand. The unexpected 10 Bcf build in US gas storage, contrary to the anticipated withdrawal, raised eyebrows in the market, especially given the significant deviation from last year's figures. Weather forecasts signaling warmer temperatures until mid-December added to the bearish sentiment. November witnessed a substantial 26% drop in natural gas, the largest monthly decline since January, following a surge in October. In Europe, gas storage draws were observed, with the overall tracker at 94.39%. However, some countries like Belgium saw a sharp ten-percentage-point decline to 87.44% since Friday. On the global stage, the US solidified its position as a leading LNG supplier, with record flows to export plants in November. Higher global prices, driven by supply disruptions and Ukraine-related sanctions, fueled increased demand for US LNG exports. From a technical perspective, the market saw fresh selling, with a 7.1% rise in open interest to 43084 and a price decrease of -12.4 rupees. Support is identified at 220, and a breach could lead to a test of 216, while resistance is at 230.5, with a potential upward move to 237.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 216-237.
* Natural gas dropped due to abundant storage levels, record production and reduced demand.
* The latest US EIA's report indicated a surprising build of 10 billion cubic feet in gas storage for the week
* Weather forecasts indicate that temperatures are likely to remain warmer than usual at least until December 14th.



Copper

Copper prices experienced a decline of -0.88%, settling at 720.2, as the strength of the U.S. dollar took precedence over concerns about tightening metal supply. The dollar gained momentum while investors awaited a crucial employment report, impacting commodity prices. Despite the overall downward trend, Panama's decision to shut down First Quantum Minerals Ltd.'s Cobre operation added an interesting twist to the copper market. The national court ruling deeming the law approving a new operating contract for the mine unconstitutional is expected to reduce copper supply. First Quantum Minerals produces approximately 1.5% of the world's copper supply, posing a potential threat to the global surplus projected for 2024. On the demand side, the largest consumer of copper, China, showed signs of rebounding. The unexpected increase in Caixin Manufacturing PMI in November raised hopes that the manufacturing sector in China is picking up, providing support for copper demand. The International Copper Study Group reported a deficit of 55,000 metric tons in the global refined copper market for September, compared to a deficit of 21,000 metric tons in August. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, witnessing a drop in open interest by -5.98% to settle at 4970. Prices have decreased by -6.4 rupees. Copper is currently finding support at 718.5, with a potential test of 716.6 levels on a further decline. Resistance is likely at 723.8, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 727.2 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 716.6-727.2.
* Copper dropped mainly due to a stronger US dollar outweighing concerns about tighter metal supply.
* China Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased in November, raising hopes the manufacturing sector is finally picking up.
* The global refined copper market showed a 55,000 metric tons deficit in September - ICSG


Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a downturn, settling down by -2.13% at 220.5, primarily driven by profit booking as indications of robust supply alleviated concerns about potential mine closures. LME warehouse zinc inventories surged to 226,250 at the end of November, reaching a more-than-two-year high, signaling subdued economic activity and impacting market sentiment. The substantial increase in warehouse inventories comes amidst an oversupply of zinc, particularly used for galvanizing steel, as weak economic activity hampers industrial manufacturing, especially in Europe. The global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September, compared to a surplus of 28,000 tons in August, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, during the first nine months of the year, the global surplus totaled 475,000 tons, a significant increase from the surplus of 47,000 tons in the same period last year. Additionally, softer inflation data in both the United States and the eurozone reinforced expectations that central banks might refrain from raising interest rates further, leading traders to anticipate earlier rate cuts next year. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling, witnessing a gain in open interest by 17.49% to settle at 4132. Prices have decreased by -4.8 rupees. Zinc is currently finding support at 218.7, with a potential test of 217 levels on a further decline. Resistance is likely at 223.7, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 227 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 217-227.
* Zinc prices dropped on profit booking as signs of robust supply alleviated concerns about mine closures.
* LME warehouse zinc inventories surged to 226,250 at the end of November, hitting a more-than-two-year high
* The fall in prices was limited by hopes of economic recovery in China after a set of stimulus measures from Beijing



Aluminium

Aluminium prices experienced a decline of -0.82%, settling at 200.15, driven by a strengthened U.S. dollar. However, concerns over supply shortages limited further losses. Positive data from China, indicating a surprising expansion in factory activity in November, initially supported market sentiments. Chinese aluminium production for October 2023 recorded a notable increase, reaching 3.641 million metric tons, reflecting a growth of 6.7% YoY. Globally, primary aluminium output in October rose by 3.9% YoY to 6.116 million tonnes, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute. The data revealed a substantial rise in imports in October, increasing by 221.19% YoY and 7.9% MoM to 216,600 metric tons, while exports declined 4.67% YoY and 91.29% MoM to 600 metric tons. Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, are reportedly developing a "whitelist" lending support specifically for 50 property developers. On the global front, a major aluminium producer offered Japanese buyers a premium of $95 per metric ton for January-March primary metal shipments, indicating a 2% decrease from the current quarter. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling, witnessing a gain in open interest by 5.08% to settle at 4179. Prices have decreased by -1.65 rupees. Aluminium is currently finding support at 199.4, with a potential test of 198.7 levels on a further decline. Resistance is likely at 201.2, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 202.3 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.7-202.3.
* Aluminium prices slipped as the U.S. dollar strengthened but supply worries capped further losses
* A global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers a premium of $95 per metric ton for January-March primary metal shipments
* Global aluminium output rises 3.9% year on year in October – IAI


Cotton

Cotton faced a downturn, settling down by -0.8% at 56780, primarily influenced by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projections indicating that global cotton production is expected to surpass consumption for the second consecutive year. The forecasted growth of 3.25% in global cotton lint production to 25.4 million metric tons in the 2023-2024 season, coupled with a marginal decline in consumption to 23.4 million metric tons, contributed to bearish sentiments. Additionally, sluggish demand, as reflected in a 5-week low of global cotton bookings reported in the last week of November, exerted downward pressure on cotton futures. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised down its cotton production estimate for the current season to 29.4 million bales due to pink bollworm infestation in Haryana and farmers uprooting plants. A significant 25% decline in cotton production is anticipated in north Maharashtra due to inadequate rainfall. The USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report increased the anticipated U.S. production in 2023/24 by 273,000 bales, raising global ending stocks by 1.6 million bales. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 reflects slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks. The global cotton balance sheet for the same period includes lower consumption but higher production and stocks, with a significant increase in beginning stocks due to a rise in India's 2022/23 production. In the Rajkot spot market, the price ended at 26452.15 Rupees, dropping by -0.55%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with a 3.29% gain in open interest to settle at 157. Prices have decreased by -460 rupees. Cottoncandy is finding support at 56660, potentially testing 56530 levels on a further decline. On the upside, resistance is expected at 56960, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 57130 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56530-57130.
* Cotton dropped as ICAC projected that global cotton production will likely outpace consumption for the second year in a row
* Global cotton lint production is expected to grow 3.25% year-on-year to 25.4 million metric tons in 2023-2024 season
* CAI has revised down its cotton production estimate for the current 2023/2024 season to 29.4 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26452.15 Rupees dropped by -0.55 percent.


Turmeric 
Turmeric faced a decline of -1.76%, settling at 12368, influenced by slower buying activities in anticipation of stock releases ahead of the new crops in January 2024. The market also experienced pressure due to improved crop conditions resulting from favorable weather. Farmer concerns arose in Maharashtra over the location of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana, though the downside is limited by potential yield losses attributed to the crop's unfavorable weather conditions. The crop is expected to be ready for harvest between January and March. Despite the current slower buying activity, the market is supported by expectations of yield losses and decreasing supplies, which contribute to price stability. Additionally, improved export opportunities provide further support. Turmeric exports during Apr-Sep 2023 increased by 4.14% at 92,025.16 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. However, there was a drop of 19.75% in September 2023 compared to August, and a larger decline of 35.06% compared to September 2022. The technical perspective reveals that the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -0.27% drop in open interest, settling at 10945. Prices have decreased by -222 rupees. Turmeric is currently finding support at 12154, with a potential test of 11942 levels in case of a further decline. On the upside, resistance is likely at 12718, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 13070 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11942-13070.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of release of stocks
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13348.15 Rupees dropped by -0.88 percent.


Jeera

Jeera, or cumin, faced a significant setback, declining by -5.98% to settle at 41475. This drop is attributed to favorable weather conditions supporting adequate soil moisture for crop sowing activities. However, the downside is mitigated by stockists showing interest in buying amid the recent price downfall. The upcoming normal sowing season in Gujarat, marked by a substantial 116% increase in cumin sowing to 244,639.00 hectares, adds a positive note to the market dynamics. Despite the optimistic domestic sowing scenario, global demand for Indian jeera has slumped. Buyers are turning to alternative sources like Syria and Turkey due to the comparatively higher prices of Indian jeera. The export seasonality indicates a likelihood of subdued export activity in the coming months. The competitive pricing of Indian jeera in the global market hasn't translated into increased overseas demand, keeping export activity restrained. The potential purchase by China in October-November adds an element of uncertainty to the market. The month-wise export data reveals a significant drop of 60.27% in September 2023 compared to the previous year. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -0.21% drop in open interest, settling at 2916. Correspondingly, prices have decreased by -2640 rupees. Jeera is currently finding support at 40490, and a further decline could test 39500 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 43450, with a potential breakthrough leading to a test of 45420 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 39500-45420.
* Jeera dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 44415.75 Rupees dropped by -1.28 percent.

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