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Sensex (59035) / Nifty (17640)

Yesterday’s session was a replica of previous session as we first witnessed a gap down on the back of sluggish global cues and then despite some mid-session rebound, ended the session almost at day’s low. However unlike Wednesday, the trading range was slightly bigger. Eventually, the Nifty ended the weekly expiry on a negative note tad below the 17650 mark by shedding another a percent.

Honestly speaking, yesterday’s extended correction below 17700 was unexpected for us. Although, both key indices gave a sharp bounce around the mid-session, the late correction poured complete water on this valiant attempt. Despite this, we still remain a bit hopeful and expect Nifty to give recovery from current levels. For the coming session, 17550 followed by 17400 are likely to provide support for the index and till the time, we do not close below key levels, we would continue with our ‘Buy on decline’ strategy. On the flipside, 17800 – 17900 are to be seen as immediate hurdles. The first sign of strength would be visible after surpassing the 17900 mark.

The only positive take away from yesterday’s session was the resilience from the banking space. We did see sheer outperformance from this heavyweight basket ahead of the RBI policy; bodes well for the bulls. Also, lot of midcaps continued to do well and despite some tail end profit booking in most of them, we still expect the action to continue in cash segment stocks.

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (37557)

Once again Bank Nifty started on a negative note however after an initial consolidation the prices started moving higher and at one point were comfortably placed above the previous session high entering the vicinity of 38000 levels. However, since it was a weekly expiry we witnessed resistance around the psychological level that dragged the bank index lower again to eventually end with a loss of 0.20% at 37557.

While the benchmark index gave up its strong Monday's gains the bank index showed some resilience and continues to hold the bullish gap (37209) left on Monday. In fact, during the session, we witnessed many heavyweight counters showing strength ahead of the key RBI policy and this definitely augurs well for the bulls. Even though the bulls have lost the momentum the bullish breakout of the Cup N handle seen last Friday is still active and the breakout levels around 36800 - 37000 coincide with key averages hence we continue with our bullish stance where we sense the bulls to come back soon. In such a scenario, traders should focus on a stock-centric approach that can give outperforming opportunities. As far as resistance is concerned, 37800 - 38000 would be closely watched on policy day as a first sign of strength would be on closing above the same.

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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