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Sensex (52925) / Nifty (15860)

The massive correction in US markets last Friday had a continuation on Monday morning to haunt traders across the globe. As a result, our markets opened with more than a percent cut to test the 15500 mark. However this was followed by a remarkable vshaped recovery in the remaining part of the day. For the subsequent two sessions, markets consolidated at higher levels with no clear intent. However, towards the fag end of the week the bulls were back with some strength to mark highest ever weekly close tad below 15900.

In our previous weekly commentary, we had advocated some caution considering the formation of ‘Hanging Man’ pattern on weekly chart. To activate this, the prices should have slipped below the low i.e. 15450 in this case. But since it reversed from 15500, the pattern was not confirmed. Also, we had shared our observation on the placement of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 index around some crucial levels. All these negative developments have not been completely negated yet; but the kind of up move we witnessed in BANKNIFTY on Friday’s session, the bulls seem to have upper hand here. Hence, banking becomes a deciding factor going ahead. A follow up move in the coming sessions would definitely push the Nifty towards its much awaited milestone of 16000 and may even extend towards 16200 later. Hence, it would be interesting to see how things pan out in the banking space.

As far as supports are concerned, the immediate levels are placed at 15700 – 15670 and the base is to be seen at 15450 now. Till the time market defends these important supports, the short term trend remains bullish. But having said that we would still reiterate that one should avoid being complacent and it’s better to continue with the strategy of ‘one step at a time’. Because although it’s difficult to time it, whenever any rally overstretches without giving any meaningful correction, market tends to surprise anytime. So to be on the safer side, try to avoid aggressive leveraged positions overnight.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (35365)

On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a positive note and with positive momentum throughout the session ended around the high point with gains of 1.54% at 35365.

In our recent outlook, we have been mentioning a possibility of a catch-up move in the bank index and that is exactly what we say on Friday snapping the last two weeks' losing streak. On the daily chart, we can see prices just closing below the descending trend line resistance formed by joining the trend line from the all-time high level to the recent swing high. Going with the momentum of Friday, we would pre-empt and expect the prices to break above the resistance and continue to drive the benchmark index into new territory. Hence, we would suggest using intraday dips to enter long in the banking space. Having said that, we would refrain from taking aggressive bets overnight. As far as levels are concerned, 35810 - 36000 is the immediate resistance whereas 35200 - 34900 is the immediate support zone.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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