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Nifty : 17624.45

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty traded in a narrow range of 17580-17650 for entire session while market action was focused on beaten down mid/small caps that bounced from oversold trajectory. In the process heavyweight banking continued to relatively outperform led by private banks on Thursday

* Nifty is undergoing a consolidation over past four sessions, after 1000 points rally in preceding nine sessions. In the process nifty has retraced less than 25% of the rally signaling lack of any major selling at index level. We expect ongoing consolidation would make market healthier ahead of progression of Q4 earnings season with key support placed at 17500. On the higher side sustainability above 17800 would lead to resumption of upmove towards next key target of 18100. Meanwhile we expect markets to remain stock specific amid earnings season. Our positive view is validated by following observations:

a) For the first time since December 2022, index posted faster recovery of last declining segment. Nifty recovered 15 session decline (17800-16800) in just eight sessions indicating structural improvement

b) 57% of the Nifty500 constituents are above 50-day moving average this week, Strongest breadth since December 2022

c) FII inflows have been supportive with US dollar in declining trend. We expect further weakness in dollar to lead continued foreign money flow

* We expect broader markets to witness catch up activity as Nifty midcap and small cap indices have resolved out of four month falling channel indicating end of corrective phase

* Structurally, the slower pace of retracement makes us confident to revise support base at 17500 as it is 38.2% retracement of three-week rally (16828-17863) coincided with rising 200-day ema (17520)

In the coming session, index to open on a flat note amid muted global cues. We expect stock specific action will continue to remain in focus as index consolidates in a range. Overall bias remains positive. Hence, use intraday dips towards 17590-17625 in Nifty April future for creating long position for target of 17709, maintain a stoploss at 17553

Nifty Bank: 42269

Technical Outlook

* The daily price action formed a high wave candle with a higher high -low signalling continuation of the consolidation for the fourth consecutive session amid stock specific action after the recent strong up move

* Going ahead, we expect the index to continue its current consolidation for a couple of sessions and then resume its up move and gradually head towards 43000 levels in the coming weeks being the 80 % retracement of the entire decline (44151 - 38613 )

* Index has witnessed breather in the last four sessions after almost 3500 points up move in the preceding three weeks . However, this should not be constructed as negative instead dips should be used as a buying opportunity

* Key point to highlight is that the index for the first time since December has posted faster retracement of last major declining segment i . e . seven weeks decline (42015 -38613 ) retraced in just three weeks signalling sign of turnaround on larger degree

* Bank Nifty continues to outperform the Nifty . The Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio line continues to trend higher and sustaining above the major breakout area signalling extended period of outperformance

* The index has support at 41200 levels being the confluence of the 61 . 8 % retracement of the last week up move (40727 -42196 ) and rising demand line joining lows of the last three weeks placed at 41200 levels

* The weekly stochastic remain in uptrend and is seen sustaining above its three periods average thus supports the overall positive bias in the index

In the coming session, the index is likely to open on a flat note amid muted global cues . We expect Index to extend its last four sessions consolidation amid stock specific action . Hence use intraday dips towards 42070 -42150 for creating long position for the target 42390 , maintain a stoploss of 41960

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