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Sensex (60622) / Nifty (18028)

For the third consecutive week, our markets had a promising start; but we failed to capitalize on it once again due to lack of follow up buying interest. The US markets were the spoilsport as we witnessed a sizeable correction there in the latter half of the week. Although, we didn’t mirror the weakness, our markets remained tentative to conclude the week tad above the 18000 mark.

In the early part of week gone by, the benchmark index managed to traverse the intermediate hurdle of 18100; but didn’t have enough legs to go beyond the sturdy wall of 18200 - 18300. It seems market requires some solid trigger to break the shackles. On the global front, hopefully we see relief in US markets after the recent weakness. However, at our end, few heavyweights reported their earnings over the weekend, which will have a considerable impact on our market as we step in to the monthly expiry week. As of now, we continue to remain hopeful and expect the action to trigger in the upward direction. As far as levels are concerned, the rock-solid support is visible at 17900 – 17750 and till now, bulls have managed to defend it in a challenging environment. On the flipside, it has become a daunting task to surpass the hurdle of 18150 – 18300.

The way our markets have undergone a long time-wise correction; we expect the breakout to happen soon from this contracted range. Hopefully, quarterly earnings from RELIANCE and ICICI Bank, set the tone and help us come out of this slumber phase. This week is likely to see some action although it’s truncated as the expiry is preponed by a day on account of Republic Day holiday on Thursday. Also, it’s important to understand, we are inching closer to the ‘Union Budget’ and hence, market would try to position itself ahead of this key event.

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook (42507)

The Bank Nifty index witnessed another lackluster week, wherein it stayed in a slender range of 850 odd points throughout the week. The index seems to be losing its sheen with its subdued moves and concluded the week around 42500 mark, procuring a mere gain of 0.32 percent from previous week’s closure.

On the technical front, the index is struggling near 20 SMA on the daily chart and requires a decisive breakthrough to come out from the slumber phase. As far as levels are concerned, 42000 is likely to act as the immediate support, followed by the Fibonacci retracement of 38.20% which is the sacrosanct support placed around 41560. On the higher end, an authoritative move beyond 42600-42800 could trigger some thrust in the primary trend. However, a series of resistances could be seen from 42600 to 43500 levels in the comparable period. Hence, one needs to keep a close tab on the mentioned levels amid the upcoming earning season and avoid aggressive trade till the trend gets clear.

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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