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Southwest monsoon season progresses with an improvement

Southwest monsoon at 4% deficit as of 3rd Jul’22

* India’s cumulative rainfall stood at a deficit of 4% v/s normal levels as of 3rd Jul’22 compared to 7% deficit a week ago. This improvement is attributable to better rainfall in all regions. While rainfall in the north-west region has reported 0% deficit that in the east and north-east continue exhibiting surplus rains. Deficiency in both the southern and central region has reduced sharply for the week ended 3rd Jul’22 (Exhibits 1, 2, 3).

* The southwest monsoon season is critical to Kharif sowing. As of 1st Jul’22, Kharif sowing is 5.3% lower than area sown last year compared to 26% deficit (v/s last year) seen as of 26th Jun’22, implying improvement (Exhibit 4).

* The southwest season comprises of four months, of which three are still remaining. Month-wise rainfall received between CY02-21 shows that on an average, June receives only 19% of the season’s rainfall. July receives almost one-third, followed by August at 29% of the total rainfall in one season. In CY21 as well, while June received 21% of the rainfall, July received 30% followed by August at 22%. Therefore, as the southwest monsoon season is progressing towards Jul-Aug’22, signs of improvement are already visible (Exhibit 5).

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