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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 48001 with a firmer dollar stalling the precious metal's rally after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors the central bank would remain accommodative for the time being. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's belief that the U.S. economy has "learned to handle" the coronavirus and won't be swamped in a fresh wave of infections or by rising inflation may get tested in coming weeks as schools reopen, supply chains remain clogged, and federal unemployment benefits wane. Data showed the risk ahead as the country navigates the transition from an economy dependent for the last year on federal government benefits to one where those emergency programs expire and private incomes take over. Physical gold demand was subdued in India as rising prices discouraged retail purchases, while top consumer China saw some safety buying though jewellery sales were dull. Dealers in India offered discounts up to $4 an ounce over official domestic prices, compared to $6 discount last week. Global demand for gold rose in the second quarter to its highest quarterly level in a year as central banks and investors stepped up purchases, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.18% to settled at 12417 while prices down -395 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47815 and below same could see a test of 47630 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48330, a move above could see prices testing 48660.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47630-48660.
* Gold prices edged off a high with a firmer dollar stalling the precious metal's rally
* Powell said the U.S. job market still had some ground to cover before the Fed would pull back support.
* Gold demand has yet to recover fully from COVID 19, says WGC
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 67847 as dollar rose as upbeat economic data helped reverse some of the losses when dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve scuttled a month-long rally in the U.S. currency. The dollar also got a lift after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Fed should start reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases this fall and cut them "fairly rapidly" so the program ends in the first months of 2022 to pave the way for a rate increase that year if needed. Data showed U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in June as COVID-19 vaccinations boosted demand for travel-related services and recreation, even though part of the increase reflected higher prices, with annual inflation accelerating further above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market still had some ground to cover before it would be time to pull back support and that the Fed was "ways away" from considering interest rate hikes. The Commerce Department said real U.S. GDP surged up by 6.5 percent in the second quarter following a 6.3 percent jump in the first quarter. Pending home sales dropped in June and jobless claims pulled back less than expected in the week ended July 24th, offering more evidence that the economic recovery has started to slow. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.11% to settled at 8315 while prices down -353 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67574 and below same could see a test of 67302 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68159, a move above could see prices testing 68472.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67302-68472.
* Silver prices dropped as dollar rose as upbeat economic data helped reverse losses from dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve.
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market still had some ground to cover before it would be time to pull back support.
* The dollar also got a lift after Fed’s said the Fed should start reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases this fall

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 5517 on hopes that demand will growth faster than supply despite a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the globe. U.S. crude production rose 80,000 barrels per day in May to 11.231 million bpd, according to a monthly government report. The Energy Information Administration also revised its estimate of April production by 18,000 bpd to 11.151 mln bpd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil consumption is increasing and the decision by the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers to raise combined output by 400,000 barrels per day was "adequate". "Demand is on the rise, consumption is on the rise. Of course, the coronavirus is still there but... there are no such lockdowns as there were before," he told. OPEC oil output rose in July to its highest since April 2020, as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia phased out a voluntary supply cut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 26.72 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, up 610,000 bpd from June's revised estimate. Output has risen every month since June 2020 apart from in February. OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts agreed in April 2020, as demand and the economy recover. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 29.93% to settled at 8392 while prices up 70 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5456 and below same could see a test of 5396 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5550, a move above could see prices testing 5584.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5396-5584.
* Crude oil gained on hopes that demand will growth faster than supply despite a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the globe.
* U.S. crude output rose 80,000 bpd in May to 11.231 mln bpd
* Russia's Novak says global oil consumption is on the rise.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.94% at 290 on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks and lower air conditioning demand than previously expected. However downside seen limited on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23. U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2018 as governments ease lockdowns and demand rises faster than producers can restore output shut during the 2020 coronavirus-linked price drop. After collapsing to a 25-year low in 2020, analysts forecast gas prices in 2021 will average $3.08 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) before slipping to $2.99 in 2022. In 2020, average prices dropped by 21% to $2.03 per mmBtu, their lowest since 1995. That compares with a five-year average (2015-19) of $2.77 and a 10-year average (2010-2019) of $3.31. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has slipped to 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia early in the month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.14% to settled at 13166 while prices down -11.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 284.9 and below same could see a test of 279.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 297.4, a move above could see prices testing 304.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 279.9-304.9.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks and lower air conditioning demand than previously expected.
* However downside seen limited on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week.
* EIA forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 751.7 as China's factory activity likely expanded slightly less quickly in July, as the industrial sector's impressive recovery slowed on high raw material prices, government policies, seasonal rainfalls and rising COVID cases. The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) is likely to edge lower to 50.8 in July from 50.9 in June. China will base the pace and intensity of monetary policy on the domestic economy and inflation trends in the second half of the year, the PBOC has said. Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas decreased on increased de-stocking. Data showed that the stocks fell 19,000 mt from the previous week to 409,600 mt as of Friday July 30. Copper stocks fell for three consecutive weeks, with increased de-stocking from the previous week. Domestic consumption was comparatively strong, and de-stocking continued. High premiums of domestic trade benefited imports, and ordered executed last week amid positive import profits finished customs clearance this week, leading to further decreases in stocks in the bonded area. In addition, the wide price spread between Tianjin and Shanghai encouraged delivery from smelters in north China to east China, leading to inventory increase in Jiangsu and decrease in Tianjin. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.48% to settled at 3734 while prices down -5.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 745 and below same could see a test of 738.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 759.6, a move above could see prices testing 767.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 738.3-767.5.
* Copper prices dropped as China July factory activity seen growing at a slightly slower pace
* China will base the pace and intensity of monetary policy on the domestic economy and inflation trends in the second half of the year, PBOC said.
* Copper inventories in domestic mainstream areas decreased on weakened de-stocking.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 248.15 as the initial yoy and mom growth rate of GDP in Q2 in Eurozone was higher than expected, while June unemployment rate fell short of expectation. In China, the bidding prices of the second release of national reserves were in line with market expectation. US GDP increased at an annual rate of 6.5% in Q2, lower than expected. While the first claims of unemployment benefits last week also fell short of estimation. Zinc inventories in China rose in the week. Data showed that social inventories of zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 100 mt in the week ended July 30 to 116,000 mt. The stocks increased 300 mt from Monday June 26. Stocks in Shanghai continued to rebound as a result of added arrivals and downstream taking in released government reserves; Guangdong saw slightly increased arrivals and purchasing on rigid demand from downstream, therefore stocks added slightly; Stocks in Tianjin shrank further because of disrupted arrivals due to maintenance at some smelters and improved order book amid rally in steel prices. Japan’s factory output jumped in June and job availability rose to the highest level in nearly a year, data showed, and a sign robust overseas demand was offsetting the drag to consumption from the coronavirus pandemic. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.57% to settled at 2195 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 246.2 and below same could see a test of 244.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 249.9, a move above could see prices testing 251.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 244.3-251.7.
* Zinc prices gained as the initial yoy and mom growth rate of GDP in Q2 in Eurozone was higher than expected
* In China, the bidding prices of the second release of national reserves were in line with market expectation.
* US GDP increased at an annual rate of 6.5% in Q2, lower than expected.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.6% at 1484.1 as nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 167,000 wmt from July 23 to 5.830 million wmt as of July 30. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 277,000 wmt during the same period to 3.772 million wmt. U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in June as vaccinations against COVID-19 boosted demand for travel-related services, but part of the increase reflected higher prices, with annual inflation accelerating further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. U.S. labor costs increased solidly in the second quarter as companies raised wages and benefits to attract workers, supporting views that high inflation could persist beyond this year amid supply constraints. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 0.7% last quarter after gaining 0.9% in the January-March period, the Labor Department said. SHEF to LME nickel ratio rallied from low, and once hit 7.55 within the week. Small import opportunities of spot nickel plate in bonded areas emerged, encouraging inflow of spot into domestic market. Deals made by orders still dominated market transactions. Quotation from Russia warehouse receipt remained around 200 USD/mt, Sumitomo reported near 210 USD/mt, and the bonded areas quoted 300 USD/mt of nickel beans. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -28.29% to settled at 2008 while prices down -24.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1469.6 and below same could see a test of 1455 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1503.6, a move above could see prices testing 1523.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1455-1523.
* Nickel prices dropped as nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 167,000 wmt to 5.830 million wmt
* Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 277,000 wmt during the same period to 3.772 million wmt.
* SHEF to LME nickel ratio rallied from low, and once hit 7.55 within the week.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 206.75 as power consumption limits imposed in a major Chinese production province sparked supply concerns. Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd said its aluminium subsidiary in the major production hub of Yunnan faced a hit from power consumption limits enforced by local authorities. Output affected by the curbs has totalled 35,000 tonnes so far this year, so the unit will miss its 800,000-tonne production target for 2021, the statement said. Yunnan, with abundant hydropower capacity, has become a hub for energy-intensive metal production, attracting top producers Aluminum of China and Hongqiao Group to move some operations there. U.S. labor costs increased solidly in the second quarter as companies raised wages and benefits to attract workers, supporting views that high inflation could persist beyond this year amid supply constraints. U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in June as vaccinations against COVID-19 boosted demand for travel-related services, but part of the increase reflected higher prices, with annual inflation accelerating further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's belief that the U.S. economy has "learned to handle" the coronavirus and won't be swamped in a fresh wave of infections or by rising inflation may get tested in coming weeks as schools reopen, supply chains remain clogged, and federal unemployment benefits wane. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.86% to settled at 3159 while prices up 0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.5 and below same could see a test of 204.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.5, a move above could see prices testing 210.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.1-210.1.
* Aluminium prices rose as power consumption limits imposed in a major Chinese production province sparked supply concerns.
* Yunnan Shenhuo to miss 2021 aluminium output targets on power curbs
* U.S. labor costs increase solidly in second quarter.

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 959.3 on short covering after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 24.2 Rupees to end at 1078.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.24% to settled at 1114 while prices up 10.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 939 and below same could see a test of 918.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 970.4, a move above could see prices testing 981.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 918.8-981.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 24.2 Rupees to end at 1078.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 5.92% at 10081 as crop damage due to heavy rain have forced many soyabean farmers in Madhya Pradesh to shift to paddy cultivation this season, which may result in lower than normal production of the oilseed crop for the third time in a row. Soyabean is the largest oilseed crop of the kharif season. Madhya Pradesh was the biggest producer of soyabean until 2018-19, when the output was close to 67 lakh tonne. However, production dropped to 49 lakh tonne in 2019-20 and marginally improved to about 51 lakh tonne the following year — much below the normal production of 65 lakh tonne. Maharashtra emerged as the biggest producer with about 62 lakh tonne in 2020-21. Sowing area under soyabean in Madhya Pradesh was at 44.7 lakh hectare as of July 23, down 19% from the year-ago level, while paddy acreage was 44% higher at 16.8 lakh hectare in the same period. Urad area was down by over 30% at 9.37 lakh hectare. Madhya Pradesh has received 2% above normal rain so far since June 1, largely because precipitation was 36% above average in the first month of the June-September monsoon season. Rainfall in July, the wettest month of the season, is expected to be 11-12% below normal in the state. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 461 Rupees to 10071 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.4% to settled at 18215 while prices up 563 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 9739 and below same could see a test of 9397 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10256, a move above could see prices testing 10431.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 9397-10431.
* Soyabean prices gained as Soyabean output seen shrinking as Madhya Pradesh farmers shift to paddy
* USDA reported that the condition of crops unexpectedly deteriorated last week.
* The soybean crop was rated 58% good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from a week earlier, and behind market forecasts.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  461 Rupees to 10071 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 1409.5 on profit booking after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1427.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.13% to settled at 28385 while prices down -12.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1401 and below same could see a test of 1391 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1427, a move above could see prices testing 1443.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1391-1443.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1427.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.28% at 1144.9 on profit booking after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over lower output. Malaysian palm oil production for July is expected to be lower on the month on lower oil yields and labour shortages at palm plantations. Considering the first half of the year domestic crude palm oil output is already 8% lower when compared with the same period last year, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Meantime, imports to India and China are falling due to high prices while demand for Indonesian oil is growing in India on higher supply levels and improved discounts. Indonesia has set the crude palm oil reference price lower in August, at $1,048.62 per tonne, the deputy minister for food and agriculture told. July's reference price was $1,094 per tonne. Export levies for crude palm oil remain unchanged at $175 per tonne, however, while export taxes will be lowered to $93 per tonne. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jul. 1-25 fell 1.5 percent to 1,150,452 tonnes from 1,167,989 tonnes shipped during Jun. 1-25. Malaysia maintained its August export tax for crude palm oil at 8% and lowered its reference price, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 2.5 Rupees to end at 1189.5 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.82% to settled at 5604 while prices down -14.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1117.1 and below same could see a test of 1089.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1169.3, a move above could see prices testing 1193.6.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1089.2-1193.6.
* Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over lower output.
* Malaysian palm oil production for July is expected to be lower on the month on lower oil yields and labour shortages at palm plantations.
* Indonesia sets crude palm oil reference price lower in August
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 2.5 Rupees to end at 1189.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 7713 as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7840 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.65% to settled at 31010 while prices up 40 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7644 and below same could see a test of 7575 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7777, a move above could see prices testing 7841.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7575-7841.
* Mustard seed gained as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.
* In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7840 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 7370 on profit booking after prices seen supported as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7332.95 Rupees gained 52.95 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.14% to settled at 10145 while prices down -22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7344 and below same could see a test of 7320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7404, a move above could see prices testing 7440.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7320-7440.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as turmeric crops were severely damaged due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7332.95 Rupees gained 52.95 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 13285 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -1.65 Rupees to end at 13641.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.79% to settled at 5424 while prices up 75 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13235 and below same could see a test of 13180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13345, a move above could see prices testing 13400.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13180-13400.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -1.65 Rupees to end at 13641.2 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 27470 as the yield per hectare of Indian cotton has dropped below 500 kg per hectare despite a rise in the area under the fibre crop. Data from the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC), a body comprising representatives from growers, traders, mills, exporters and government, show that while the area under cotton has topped 130 lakh hectares (lh) since 2019, the yield per hectare dropped below 500 kg, four times out of the last six years. According to the CCPC, cotton closing stocks, last season were 120.95 lakh bales, and for the current season, they have been estimated at 97.95. Industry and trader experts feel the closing stocks this season could be lower than CCPC’s estimates. CCPC data show that Maharashtra has the highest area under cotton at 41.84 lh, but its yield is the lowest among all States below 350 kg. Only Gujarat has shown a rise in acreage over the last three years, but this is attributed to the cultivation of an unauthorised Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) variety. Prices seen supported amid expectations of lower supply and increased demand from the textile industry as countries continue re-opening efforts. In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 27250 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at 5743 while prices up 60 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 27280 and below same could see a test of 27100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27600, a move above could see prices testing 27740.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 27100-27740.
* Cotton prices gained as support seen cotton yield drops below 500 kg per hectare in India despite a rise in area
* Prices seen supported amid expectations of lower supply and increased demand from the textile industry
* World cotton stocks are projected at 89.3 million bales at the end of 2021/22, the lowest in three years.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 27250 Rupees.

Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 5140 on profit booking after prices seen supported as pulses crops in Maharashtra may be affected as these are grown mainly in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions where the monsoon rainfall so far was 59% and 11% above LPA, respectively. The north parts of Karnataka, where pulses are grown, have received 71% above normal rains this season until July 24. Waterlogged field for a long time might cut yield, as pulses don’t need continuous rains. Area under pulses continues to remain low in the current kharif season, raising the spectre of the government resorting to trade-restrictive measures like imposition of stock holding again in November-December to check of prices of these eatables. The Centre reduced the import duty on masur dal to zero and also halved the Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess on the lentil to 10 per cent, in a bid to boost domestic supply and check rising prices. Support seen earlier in the day A rise in prices of pulses had forced the government to put stock limits on July 2, a step not in conformity with the free-trade concept embraced by it as it diluted the Essential Commodities Act in June 2020. Last week, it eased the restrictions a bit due to traders’ protest. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 92.5 Rupees to end at 5096.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.45% to settled at 86040 while prices down -58 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5089 and below same could see a test of 5039 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5227, a move above could see prices testing 5315.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5039-5315.
* Chana dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as pulses crops in Maharashtra may be affected
* The Centre reduced the import duty on masur dal to zero
* The north parts of Karnataka, where pulses are grown, have received 71% above normal rains this season until July 24.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 92.5 Rupees to end at 5096.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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